He's the only horse that can beat him, but he was done no favors from the draw. Smarty can sit outside and bide his time and wait to make his move. Purge is also most a 1- turn horse. All of his two turn races were losses, besides a 2 week turn around against one of the best 3 year olds we've seen in a long time is not ideal. Even with all the juice that Todd has been using, he won't get there. Most likely underneath in the 3 or 4 spot...If you must make the play, shop, I would say anything over 10-1 would be fair value on that play. Nothing less.
Smarty already beat Purge twice and Smart seems to have improved greatly since those two races. Doesn't bode well for Purge.
Still don't understand why some think closers will have a better shot at Belmont with the longer distance. Looking back at the Derby and Preakness shows Smarty getting stronger towards the line Nothing indicates to me the other horses in the field will be able to gain any ground during the extended difference.
Still don't understand why some think closers will have a better shot at Belmont with the longer distance. Looking back at the Derby and Preakness shows Smarty getting stronger towards the line Nothing indicates to me the other horses in the field will be able to gain any ground during the extended difference.
http://espn.go.com/horse/news/2004/0522/1807048.html
By David Grening (May 26, DRF)
Purge, a horse Smarty Jones toyed with twice in Arkansas, romped to a 6 3/4-length victory in Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes before 7,557 at Belmont Park. Afterward, the connections of Purge and the nine other horses in the field indicated they would run not back in the June 5 Belmont Stakes, where Smarty Jones will try to become Thoroughbred racing's 12th Triple Crown winner...
...Trainer Todd Pletcher sent Purge to Arkansas last winter because he felt it would be the easiest route to try and make a run for the Triple Crown. Little did Pletcher know he would be sending Purge against "one of the best 3-year-olds we've seen in a long time,'' Pletcher said...
There was no such 3-year-old in the Peter Pan. Pletcher was hoping Purge would relax in the Arkansas Derby, but the horse was too rank, set the pace, and was beaten 7 1/4 lengths by Smarty Jones...
...While obviously pleased with the victory, Pletcher said he wasn't using this race as a prep for the Belmont and would most likely point Purge to the $150,000 Dwyer on July 11 unless the Belmont field radically changed...
By David Grening (May 26, DRF)
Purge, a horse Smarty Jones toyed with twice in Arkansas, romped to a 6 3/4-length victory in Saturday's Grade 2, $200,000 Peter Pan Stakes before 7,557 at Belmont Park. Afterward, the connections of Purge and the nine other horses in the field indicated they would run not back in the June 5 Belmont Stakes, where Smarty Jones will try to become Thoroughbred racing's 12th Triple Crown winner...
...Trainer Todd Pletcher sent Purge to Arkansas last winter because he felt it would be the easiest route to try and make a run for the Triple Crown. Little did Pletcher know he would be sending Purge against "one of the best 3-year-olds we've seen in a long time,'' Pletcher said...
There was no such 3-year-old in the Peter Pan. Pletcher was hoping Purge would relax in the Arkansas Derby, but the horse was too rank, set the pace, and was beaten 7 1/4 lengths by Smarty Jones...
...While obviously pleased with the victory, Pletcher said he wasn't using this race as a prep for the Belmont and would most likely point Purge to the $150,000 Dwyer on July 11 unless the Belmont field radically changed...
http://drf.com/tc/belmont/2004/chat_beyer.html
Andrew BEYER, "...Rock Hard Ten has been behind the 8-ball trying to play catch-up all spring. He was at a big disadvantage running in the SA Derby with only 2 careers starts, and he had no shot in the Preakness running within only 3 career starts, yet he managed to finish second. With his pedigree he ought to handle the distance, and he figures to improve with experience, so I don't think I'd take a stand and throw him out of the exacta....There's no reason that he can't develop into a top class horse."
Andrew BEYER, "...Rock Hard Ten has been behind the 8-ball trying to play catch-up all spring. He was at a big disadvantage running in the SA Derby with only 2 careers starts, and he had no shot in the Preakness running within only 3 career starts, yet he managed to finish second. With his pedigree he ought to handle the distance, and he figures to improve with experience, so I don't think I'd take a stand and throw him out of the exacta....There's no reason that he can't develop into a top class horse."
With Pletcher being one of the best trainers out there, I feel you have to give Purge a chance on the fact that Pletcher entered him. I know alot of people will say well 2nd money isnt bad, its not, but I assure you that if that was the best Purge could do in Pletchers mind he wouldnt be running. Purges number for his last race are right there with anything Smarty has run on the sheets.Also the fact that Smarty hasnt got a race over the track, Purge ran huge in the Peter Pan. There is good reason to believe that Purge will be the wiseguy horse in the Belmont!! After all that being said, if Smarty is as good as many think he is, well it wont really matter will it.
Other key notes from Beyer chat...
Q: What do you think of Birdstone`s chances?
Beyer: ...How can he win off his recent form? I think Nick Zito is making a mistake persevering with him in a spot like this.
Q: Eddington & Rock Hard Ten have nice pedigree, but neither has improved a step all year despite stretching out...Is there any reason to expect improvement now?
Beyer: I can't make a case for Eddington--his only decent stakes performances were in slow races. But as I said earlier, I think that Rock Hard Ten has been at a significant disadvantage in all his races, in terms of experience...
Q: Does Caiman have a chance in the Belmont?
Beyer: He's 29 points behind Smarty Jones on the figures, so I' d have to say no.
Q: I have never been too impressed with Master David, but now that you say he has no chance, should we all include him in exotics?
Beyer: I think he'll be the worst value in the race.
Q: What do you think of Birdstone`s chances?
Beyer: ...How can he win off his recent form? I think Nick Zito is making a mistake persevering with him in a spot like this.
Q: Eddington & Rock Hard Ten have nice pedigree, but neither has improved a step all year despite stretching out...Is there any reason to expect improvement now?
Beyer: I can't make a case for Eddington--his only decent stakes performances were in slow races. But as I said earlier, I think that Rock Hard Ten has been at a significant disadvantage in all his races, in terms of experience...
Q: Does Caiman have a chance in the Belmont?
Beyer: He's 29 points behind Smarty Jones on the figures, so I' d have to say no.
Q: I have never been too impressed with Master David, but now that you say he has no chance, should we all include him in exotics?
Beyer: I think he'll be the worst value in the race.
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Smarty will be the first in history if he wins the TRIPLE CROWN not ever racing on this surface before!<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>Smarty also had never raced at Churchill or Pimlico.
Smarty Trivia : Pat Chapman owns Smarty Jones with her husband, Roy, and named the colt after her mother. Her given name was Mildred McNair, but her grandparents, Mama and Papa Jones, nicknamed her Smarty Jones. Mildred grew up in Tuscaloosa, Ala., in the 1920s.
Smarty Trivia : Pat Chapman owns Smarty Jones with her husband, Roy, and named the colt after her mother. Her given name was Mildred McNair, but her grandparents, Mama and Papa Jones, nicknamed her Smarty Jones. Mildred grew up in Tuscaloosa, Ala., in the 1920s.
If Every horse runs according to form there wouyldn't be horse racing! ANYTHING can happen Saturday! Could come down sick, take a bad step, get a bad break, Jockey lose whip, or any other minor thing. I hope he wins for racing but I'm betting Eddington all the way! You might think I'm burning my money but in 30 years I've seen many things happen in horse racing! Never been on this surface so lets see what happens!
Chick Anderson, "Secretariat is blazing along! The first three-quarters in 1:09 4/5. Secretariat is widening now. He is moving like a tremendous machine!"
I've seen a few Belmont Crown threats who were predicted to get there. First I can remember predicted by many experts to get there by many. I see it happening. But bottom line Jim, I have to agree - it's still a horse race.
I've seen a few Belmont Crown threats who were predicted to get there. First I can remember predicted by many experts to get there by many. I see it happening. But bottom line Jim, I have to agree - it's still a horse race.
