Careful with the results of that Hardball Times study.
His study goes back to 1950. Are we really to believe that any pitcher stats from pre free agency, hgh, Baseball are as accurate as more recent pitcher stats? Also, we are gambling here. MLs are going to be set to reflect the pitcher's previous spectacular performance. Favorites will predominate.
The anecdotal evidence he presented in the beginning of the article reflecting more recent no hit performances by relatively common pitchers is more accurate and reflective of these current Baseball times.
I still maintain that the value will be betting against Manea in his next start.
Good luck.