The line opened at Cincy -2.5 and I think that's an accurate line. There was no early sharp action on this game -- the number has moved up slowly since release, I'm guessing due to opinions like yours and the fact that Cincy played a weekday TV game last week where they covered. Tulane doesn't have a great defense (but decent), in spite of some low-scoring games, but Cincy's is even worse. Tulane should have enough success passing the ball to keep this one close.