Anyone else on the Cubs to win Series? Should I have hedged?

[Monkey4]

Well, well... it all comes down to Game 7 and I thought it would be over tonight.

I got the 'Cubs to Win Series against Florida' after they lost their first game for a good amount of coin at -120. Once they were up 3-1, the price on the Marlins shot up to +1350. I tried to convince my wife to risk 1/13 of our bet to be safe, but she of all people got too damn greedy and said we wouldn't need it.

Well now we're going to game 7 and I'm sweatin' a little. Is there ever a good time to hedge? I thought it was.

Anyone else have the Cubs to win?

 

[usmcmp]

game 7....i would hedge. But that's just me.

 

[sandmanfromlv]

same here..you should get a nice price too

 

[ninerfan+]

yeah, olympic just posted woods -220

 

[ninerfan+]

monkey, how much are we talking about? i would probably hedge 25% of original risk amount on the marlins, which should net close to doubling the money on original bet

 

[Monkey4]

A little over a dime... maybe not a lot to some, but that's a lot more than I bet on a normal game.

 

[Stalker-Dude]

I'd lay at least 20 percent as insurance. I'd hate for you be up by 3 runs in the 8th only to say...."Curses, foild again." Don't kid youself that it won't happen back to back nights. It's October, Halloween anyone? Trick or Treat! I'm going as a beer soaked Cubs Fan who is walking a black cat.

 

[LSUpete]

I WAS in the same boat.....until tonight. I took ($1,000) the Cubs to win the series, after game one. Tonight I had the Marlins at +220 for $500 as a hedge. Now I'm rooting like hell for the Cubs, so that I can win BOTH!

Cubs baby.....CUBS!!

 

[FairWarning]

You can take Florida on the RL today and hope the Cubs win by 1.

 

[crazyivan24]

I have Marlins +178

 

[crazyivan24]

Monkey4 Why even bet the Cubs Series is ur going to 'hedge'?

You risked -120....now your hedging? you can't win if the Marlins win...

So why bother?

 

[Monkey4]

Well I could guarantee some profit if I bet the right amount on the Marlins at +200 for tonight. It's a matter of backing out of my bet or not.

I agree that I would lose the value, but I have to consider whether I really think the Cubs are going to win tonight or not.

 

[Monkey4]

Well not +200 anymore, down to +185.

 

[usmcmp]

+200 at 5 dimes

 

[e15n8c6]

Even though you somehow missed the +1350 and last nights LSUpete's excellent idea, you still can salvage some piece of mind. Since you have the best of tonight's match-up, betting 500 on the Marlins and losing still gives you +500 or so. Personally I'd bet around 650 or more so you can win either way, but you have to go with what your gut says without the could have would have should have things coming into play.

Fair Warning
In his situation he has to get paid for his hedge.

God luck to all for the rest of time.

 

[BlackampGold]

Jumping in on discussion for my situation. Before last night's game I threw 1 unit to win almost 8 units on the Marlins to win series. (I decided this on a hunch right before the first pitch so I didn't post in my thread). I was trying to think of a creative way to hedge or maximize today but I decided to just add 1.5 units on today's Florida ML and try to win 10 units on a 2.5 unit investment. Unless someone has an idea I should consider......

Go Marlins!

 

[BlackampGold]

By the way, best of luck on your Cub bets, I read my post and I called myself an a$$ saying Go Marlins in a thread full of Cubbie bettors. My point was to share my decision about hedging my series bet, not to be an a$$.

It should be a great game tonight. High drama.

 

[Monkey4]

Well... in the end I took in all the points about losing my original value if I took any hedges. Basically I would just be laying more juice if I did and that's not why I originally bought them at -120.

I stuck with Chicago and we're at 3-3 now. Go Cubbies!!!