Rocha is an excellent grappler and Cerrone has been submitted. Cerrone's kickboxing experience will obviously win him the standup, but the guy has never knocked anyone out and doesn't have unbeatable takedown defense. Rocha is stepping up 10 levels in competition but has the skillset to pull the upset if he can get "Cowboy" into some grappling exchanges. Submission or decision is possible. At 4/1, I think it's worth a shot.