On fire is what is what I am right now. I have posted winner after winner on large 5k wagers the last three or four days and there is no reason to stop my winning ways right now. My winners have included a soccer wager at +105, a huge hockey wager at +139, a big time play on the Phillies last night and now we are on to this.
I don't care how many people like the Mets here. First of all I cannot recall how many times I have been on the Mets in daytime games and been screwed like this before. It happens over and over and over again and I said to myself no more betting the Mets. What I am looking at here is the fact that Jo Jo Reyes is not going to continue losing games. He is 0-9 in his last 18 major league baseball starts and something smells like fish when it comes to the odds here. Reyes is not that bad of a pitcher. Yes Reyes has been rocked in both his road starts this season allowing all four of his HR's away from home but the Mets are ranked #27 of 30 in MLB when it comes to Home Runs and as long as Reyes can avoid that today he should be fine. Reyes was rocked his last start in New York but his offense screwed him over in that game. On that note, I think Reyes can pitch as well as he did last August 19 when he pitched 6 complete innings of 4 hit ball but was once again shafted by his offense. Well I expect the offense to have a bit more spark today against a rookie lefty that some have already seen once and therefore my selection is:
Atlanta Braves ML +124
I know this is a ballsy call and it doesn't make sense to go against the Mets at home facing a left handed pitcher because the Mets have rocked lefties all over the place this season but keep in mind that Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games versus lefties as well and the issue with Reyes has always been that his bats won't support him in New York. That kid Jonathon Niese is on the mound for the Mets and he has pitched well but he is bound to get rocked. Niese started on Friday and shutout the lowly Pirates. He made three starts in September of 2008 and the team went 1-1 in the two home starts. His only home win was a 5-0 shutout against this very same Braves team as Nieves pitched 8 complete innings of shutout ball. What you don't see in that scoreline is the fact that:
a) There was no Chipper Jones, no Garrett Anderson, no Matt Diaz, no David Ross and no Jordan Schaefer...all who are in the lineup today and all who compose a good part of the heart of this order.
b) In that 5-0 loss in August, the Braves had tons of chances leaving 8 men on base and on six occasions they failed to cash in runners in scoring position with 2 outs against Nieves. I don't think he'll be that lucky in this game.
Also keep in mind that Carlos Delgado is out today and he loves to pound away on lefties. Both bullpens are on fire right now and even if Reyes cannot go too long, the Braves bullpen is well rested and again they have played well. The Mets are playing good baseball right now but they are a good fade in these day games. Atlanta is a good road team, Reyes is well overdue for a good performance or even a win (winless in last 18 starts is crazy) and this is the only way to go.
Show some balls and go against the Mets here. The public is going to get rocked.
:toast:
I don't care how many people like the Mets here. First of all I cannot recall how many times I have been on the Mets in daytime games and been screwed like this before. It happens over and over and over again and I said to myself no more betting the Mets. What I am looking at here is the fact that Jo Jo Reyes is not going to continue losing games. He is 0-9 in his last 18 major league baseball starts and something smells like fish when it comes to the odds here. Reyes is not that bad of a pitcher. Yes Reyes has been rocked in both his road starts this season allowing all four of his HR's away from home but the Mets are ranked #27 of 30 in MLB when it comes to Home Runs and as long as Reyes can avoid that today he should be fine. Reyes was rocked his last start in New York but his offense screwed him over in that game. On that note, I think Reyes can pitch as well as he did last August 19 when he pitched 6 complete innings of 4 hit ball but was once again shafted by his offense. Well I expect the offense to have a bit more spark today against a rookie lefty that some have already seen once and therefore my selection is:
Atlanta Braves ML +124
I know this is a ballsy call and it doesn't make sense to go against the Mets at home facing a left handed pitcher because the Mets have rocked lefties all over the place this season but keep in mind that Atlanta has won 4 of their last 5 games versus lefties as well and the issue with Reyes has always been that his bats won't support him in New York. That kid Jonathon Niese is on the mound for the Mets and he has pitched well but he is bound to get rocked. Niese started on Friday and shutout the lowly Pirates. He made three starts in September of 2008 and the team went 1-1 in the two home starts. His only home win was a 5-0 shutout against this very same Braves team as Nieves pitched 8 complete innings of shutout ball. What you don't see in that scoreline is the fact that:
a) There was no Chipper Jones, no Garrett Anderson, no Matt Diaz, no David Ross and no Jordan Schaefer...all who are in the lineup today and all who compose a good part of the heart of this order.
b) In that 5-0 loss in August, the Braves had tons of chances leaving 8 men on base and on six occasions they failed to cash in runners in scoring position with 2 outs against Nieves. I don't think he'll be that lucky in this game.
Also keep in mind that Carlos Delgado is out today and he loves to pound away on lefties. Both bullpens are on fire right now and even if Reyes cannot go too long, the Braves bullpen is well rested and again they have played well. The Mets are playing good baseball right now but they are a good fade in these day games. Atlanta is a good road team, Reyes is well overdue for a good performance or even a win (winless in last 18 starts is crazy) and this is the only way to go.
Show some balls and go against the Mets here. The public is going to get rocked.
:toast:
