I'm a firm believer you can successfully handicap some of the upcoming games for the regular season months ahead of time. Just curious if anyone else does this.
BL
BL
3pointdog,
I don't figure player movement or injuries into handicapping games. It's all about the situation.
BL
I don't figure player movement or injuries into handicapping games. It's all about the situation.
BL
Week 1
Packers -4 at Bears
Titans +3 at Bucs
Giants +5.5 at Cowboys
Colts -1.5 at Bills
Rams +4.0 vs Seattle
Week 2
Titans +4.5 at Browns
Lions PK? at Vikings
EAgles -2 at Cowboys
Seattle +1 at Packers
Week 3
Bengals +3 at Ravens
Broncos PK at Lions
Week 4
Miami -3.5 London
Eagles -2.5 at Redskins
Denver -7 vs Vikes
Rams +3.5 at Arizona
Packers PK at Niners
Week 5
Titans +3 vs Bills
Colts PK at Texans
Seattle -2 at Bengals
Week 6
Jets -2 vs Redskins
Kansas +1 at Vikes
Colts -1 vs Patriots
Sdc +5.5 at GBP - SDC LOCK type whatever you guys call
Week 7
Rams -6 vs Browns
Oak +8 at Chargers
Azo -2 vs Ravens
Packers -4 at Bears
Titans +3 at Bucs
Giants +5.5 at Cowboys
Colts -1.5 at Bills
Rams +4.0 vs Seattle
Week 2
Titans +4.5 at Browns
Lions PK? at Vikings
EAgles -2 at Cowboys
Seattle +1 at Packers
Week 3
Bengals +3 at Ravens
Broncos PK at Lions
Week 4
Miami -3.5 London
Eagles -2.5 at Redskins
Denver -7 vs Vikes
Rams +3.5 at Arizona
Packers PK at Niners
Week 5
Titans +3 vs Bills
Colts PK at Texans
Seattle -2 at Bengals
Week 6
Jets -2 vs Redskins
Kansas +1 at Vikes
Colts -1 vs Patriots
Sdc +5.5 at GBP - SDC LOCK type whatever you guys call
Week 7
Rams -6 vs Browns
Oak +8 at Chargers
Azo -2 vs Ravens
Denver over Bengals in week 17, revenge for last years loss.......
I'm ready for NFL to start, but will enjoy the hot & humid summer as well.
I'm ready for NFL to start, but will enjoy the hot & humid summer as well.
Some non-division selections:
Week 1, 2015
Browns +2 @ Jets,
Jaguars +4 vs. Panthers,
Lions +1.5 @ Chargers
Week 3, 2015
Jets +2.5 vs. Eagles,
Rams -1 vs. Steelers
Week 5, 2015
Jaguars +3.5 @ Buccaneers,
Week 7, 2015
Saints +5 @ Colts
Week 11, 2015
Rams +3.5 @ Ravens
Week 1, 2015
Browns +2 @ Jets,
Jaguars +4 vs. Panthers,
Lions +1.5 @ Chargers
Week 3, 2015
Jets +2.5 vs. Eagles,
Rams -1 vs. Steelers
Week 5, 2015
Jaguars +3.5 @ Buccaneers,
Week 7, 2015
Saints +5 @ Colts
Week 11, 2015
Rams +3.5 @ Ravens
Just got the trusty Lindy's 2015 guide and put in all the data for each team and stats given LY + w all the off season changes. Ground the math and the linesmakers have priced most everything about right.
ARI +2.5 is about the best deal. no is still a notoriously bad road team.
CHI+5 gb seems also overpriced. John Fox will keep Cutler under control and expect a new commitment to running the ball and controlling the clock
ARI +2.5 is about the best deal. no is still a notoriously bad road team.
CHI+5 gb seems also overpriced. John Fox will keep Cutler under control and expect a new commitment to running the ball and controlling the clock
Took two games off the board, added two more
Week 1, 2015
Browns +2 @ Jets
Jaguars +4 vs. Panthers
Raiders +3.5 vs. Bengals
Vikings +4.5 @ 49ers
Week 3, 2015
Jets +2.5 vs. Eagles
Rams -1 vs. Steelers
Week 5, 2015
Jaguars +3.5 @ Buccaneers
Week 7, 2015
Saints +5 @ Colts
Week 1, 2015
Browns +2 @ Jets
Jaguars +4 vs. Panthers
Raiders +3.5 vs. Bengals
Vikings +4.5 @ 49ers
Week 3, 2015
Jets +2.5 vs. Eagles
Rams -1 vs. Steelers
Week 5, 2015
Jaguars +3.5 @ Buccaneers
Week 7, 2015
Saints +5 @ Colts
[h=2]It's not the dog in the fight; it's the fight in the dog when it comes to football[/h]
Top plays on the weekend are the ones you really need to go after...How a team will perform against the spread in Following week-of The season is an enormous trap. The fact is isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams and teams with a losing record or low margin vs.ones with a high margin from the previous Week is where the line value resides. It's not the dog in the fight; it's the fight in the dog when it comes to football. Certainly that's how upsets can happen," "You get a big play here and there, you get a loose fumble, pick it up and score, things like that. You generally need to get one or two big breaks to get a big upset. If you can get those and not give the other team anything, it can happen."
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
One of best Theory's that use is the ''Up-Down Theory''suggests that teams that played poorly one week should be due for a regression the next, while a team that played above itself will come back down to earth. However, the market usually corrects the other way, assuming that a team that played poorly is a “bad team” and will be equally bad or even worse the next week while a team that won will continue to play well or improve. When a team coming off a statistically anomalous “bad” game goes up against a team that played over its head the week prior, then you have a classic Up-Down situation.
For example, in Week 1 of the 2013 regular season Philadelphia blitzed Washington in a marquee road win. That same night San Diego played horribly in the second half while collapsing in a loss to Houston. The two teams played the following Sunday. And a spread that probably should’ve been 3.5 was inflated up to 7.5 because the assumption was that Philadelphia was trending up and San Diego was trending down. It was just the opposite. The Chargers bounced back (Up) while the Eagles slid back to reality (Down), and the result was an outright upset win for San Diego. Road favorite's are rarely a strong play for NFL bettors. But there are some teams that simply should never be favored when they play away from home. You never want to lay points on the road with teams that have a track record of wild inconsistency – turnovers, penalties, late-game meltdown, poor special teams, etc. These teams are usually enticing because of perceived “talent” advantages. But if they aren’t consistent and fundamentally sound, you don’t even want to think about betting on them away from home RX members
Conclude my thread, I would like to share this thought with you RX members. I’m sure you’ve seen them online, heard through sports betting forums or various other online outlets, those posts or banners flashing the attention grabbing headline of the best betting system, or winning sports betting system, or we win 90% of our sports picks. The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL betters lose. The unfortunate case with the handicapper market is that it’s a saturated market of self-proclaimed sports betting professionals claiming to have the latest sports betting system that produces the best winning picks and giving away with free picks
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
For example, in Week 1 of the 2013 regular season Philadelphia blitzed Washington in a marquee road win. That same night San Diego played horribly in the second half while collapsing in a loss to Houston. The two teams played the following Sunday. And a spread that probably should’ve been 3.5 was inflated up to 7.5 because the assumption was that Philadelphia was trending up and San Diego was trending down. It was just the opposite. The Chargers bounced back (Up) while the Eagles slid back to reality (Down), and the result was an outright upset win for San Diego. Road favorite's are rarely a strong play for NFL bettors. But there are some teams that simply should never be favored when they play away from home. You never want to lay points on the road with teams that have a track record of wild inconsistency – turnovers, penalties, late-game meltdown, poor special teams, etc. These teams are usually enticing because of perceived “talent” advantages. But if they aren’t consistent and fundamentally sound, you don’t even want to think about betting on them away from home RX members
Conclude my thread, I would like to share this thought with you RX members. I’m sure you’ve seen them online, heard through sports betting forums or various other online outlets, those posts or banners flashing the attention grabbing headline of the best betting system, or winning sports betting system, or we win 90% of our sports picks. The reality is that 80% of the sports betting systems in the market don’t work, or unqualified. I would even go on the line to say it is closer to 90% and the factors that play into their prediction systems or methods are why the majority of NFL betters lose. The unfortunate case with the handicapper market is that it’s a saturated market of self-proclaimed sports betting professionals claiming to have the latest sports betting system that produces the best winning picks and giving away with free picks
Mr.Hårr¥THëHÄT
