Don't be shy, this is where the big bucks are made. I am now 8-3 this season when posting my large wagers of $5000 each and those who follow my stuff know that it all started with a soccer play on Newcastle United +105 and then came the Washington Capitals at +139 and we went from there as I have been making some crazy cash on all these plays. My three loses were on teams that held 2-3 run leads in the late stages of games and all three loses were blown games by the bullpens or by a tired starter. I have been spot on with most of my predictions and for those who don't believe the amounts I bet on games, check the line movement at Pinnacle after I post this.
Memorial Day is here and although I am in Toronto right now and everything is business as always, I could not be happier that we get to watch and bet on some baseball while I am home taking care of my new baby girl. Weather is nice, lost a lot of small cash the last few days betting on my Blue Jays who are no longer leading the AL East but you live and you learn and I am staying away from them today. First and foremost the National League sucks and I rarely back teams in the NL unless I have to but this is one that really sticks out to me. Cincinnati won 2 of 3 against the rival cross State Cleveland Indians on the weekend but they could have easily lost all three games and I just don't see them winning here today. Wandy Rodriguez is an early candidate for the Cy Young Award in the NL (he is also the Edwin Jackson of the NL going from horrendous to superstar) and I have full faith that after getting swept by the Rangers on the weekend, Houston comes out and wins this one the road so give me:
Houston Astros ML -105
End of story.This team has won 18 games this season and 9 of them have come on the road so if you are going to back them this is definitely the place to do it. They got swept by the Rangers at home on the weekend and as bad as that was, I think they can do some serious damage here in Cincinnati. First and foremost let's talk about Wandy Wandy. Out of nowhere this year he is one of the top pitchers in the National League and I am not complaining. Now the question is can he play like this all season or not. Regardless I am taking my chances with him here while he is hot and while he still has tangible value on the market. Rodriguez is 5-2 on the season with a 1.83 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and had it not been for some mediocre offensive performances by his hitters, he would have 8 wins by now. Here is some other stuff you need to know about Rodriguez (who is a lefty):
Cincinnati vs. Lefties = .247 on the season
Joey Votto is the heart and soul of this Reds team but that inner ear infection continues to be a big time problem and he missed the game yesterday although he did come in to pinch hit. He can hit lefties but the rest of this team has been pathetic as...
Jay Bruce is batting .200 versus lefties
Jerry Hairston Jr. is batting .256 versus lefties
Willy Taveras is batting .222 versus lefties
Alex Gonzalez is batting .200 versus lefties
Ramon Hernandez is batting .250 versus lefties
Adam Rosales is batting .250 versus lefties
Laynce Nix is batting .091 versus lefties
This is what I expect the Reds lineup to look like today (well 7 of the 8 hitters at least with Gomes filling the last spot and possibly Votto if he can go). I also have to mention that Wandy Rodriguez is 2-0 this season versus the Cincinnati Reds having allowed 1 ER in 14.0 innings pitched on only 7 hits and I don't see why he can't do the exact same here today. Now if you want to get into discussions about Aaron Harang I don't mind that either because he is the reason we are getting such good odds on the Astros today. Much like Rodriguez, Harang has made two starts against the Astros this season and those starts have not been good:
Aaron Harang Recent Home Stars vs. Cincinnati
Apr.18/2009 - 5.0 Innings pitched, 5 ER's, 8-3 loss
Aug.10/2008 - 4.0 Innings pitched, 8 ER's, 13-4 loss
May 10/2007 - 6.2 Innings pitched, 5 ER's, 9-5 win
So you can clearly see here that Harang sucks ass against the Astros and already this season he has been lit up by these guys twice. Now you can argue that Harang is perfect in day starts in 2009 and that is true as he has allowed only 1 ER in 21.0 innings during day games scattered over the span of three starts. Well that is all about to change today because the Astros bats have been asleep (well they sucked ass against the Rangers on the weekend) and I noticed that they have some guys who love hitting during the day. Check this out:
Miguel Tejada is batting .393 in daytime games
Hunter Pence is batting .345 in daytime games
Ivan Rodriguez is batting .340 in daytime games
Michael Bourn has 14 runs in 14 daytime games
Carlos Lee is batting .268 in daytime games
I know the side of choise is not the right side when it comes to who the Astros would rather face on the mound because they have not been as good against righties but they have been that good against Harang and I expect the same again today. Other things you need to know about the game today:
Thanks for reading guys...see you at the bank!
:toast:
Memorial Day is here and although I am in Toronto right now and everything is business as always, I could not be happier that we get to watch and bet on some baseball while I am home taking care of my new baby girl. Weather is nice, lost a lot of small cash the last few days betting on my Blue Jays who are no longer leading the AL East but you live and you learn and I am staying away from them today. First and foremost the National League sucks and I rarely back teams in the NL unless I have to but this is one that really sticks out to me. Cincinnati won 2 of 3 against the rival cross State Cleveland Indians on the weekend but they could have easily lost all three games and I just don't see them winning here today. Wandy Rodriguez is an early candidate for the Cy Young Award in the NL (he is also the Edwin Jackson of the NL going from horrendous to superstar) and I have full faith that after getting swept by the Rangers on the weekend, Houston comes out and wins this one the road so give me:
Houston Astros ML -105
End of story.This team has won 18 games this season and 9 of them have come on the road so if you are going to back them this is definitely the place to do it. They got swept by the Rangers at home on the weekend and as bad as that was, I think they can do some serious damage here in Cincinnati. First and foremost let's talk about Wandy Wandy. Out of nowhere this year he is one of the top pitchers in the National League and I am not complaining. Now the question is can he play like this all season or not. Regardless I am taking my chances with him here while he is hot and while he still has tangible value on the market. Rodriguez is 5-2 on the season with a 1.83 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and had it not been for some mediocre offensive performances by his hitters, he would have 8 wins by now. Here is some other stuff you need to know about Rodriguez (who is a lefty):
Cincinnati vs. Lefties = .247 on the season
Joey Votto is the heart and soul of this Reds team but that inner ear infection continues to be a big time problem and he missed the game yesterday although he did come in to pinch hit. He can hit lefties but the rest of this team has been pathetic as...
Jay Bruce is batting .200 versus lefties
Jerry Hairston Jr. is batting .256 versus lefties
Willy Taveras is batting .222 versus lefties
Alex Gonzalez is batting .200 versus lefties
Ramon Hernandez is batting .250 versus lefties
Adam Rosales is batting .250 versus lefties
Laynce Nix is batting .091 versus lefties
This is what I expect the Reds lineup to look like today (well 7 of the 8 hitters at least with Gomes filling the last spot and possibly Votto if he can go). I also have to mention that Wandy Rodriguez is 2-0 this season versus the Cincinnati Reds having allowed 1 ER in 14.0 innings pitched on only 7 hits and I don't see why he can't do the exact same here today. Now if you want to get into discussions about Aaron Harang I don't mind that either because he is the reason we are getting such good odds on the Astros today. Much like Rodriguez, Harang has made two starts against the Astros this season and those starts have not been good:
Aaron Harang Recent Home Stars vs. Cincinnati
Apr.18/2009 - 5.0 Innings pitched, 5 ER's, 8-3 loss
Aug.10/2008 - 4.0 Innings pitched, 8 ER's, 13-4 loss
May 10/2007 - 6.2 Innings pitched, 5 ER's, 9-5 win
So you can clearly see here that Harang sucks ass against the Astros and already this season he has been lit up by these guys twice. Now you can argue that Harang is perfect in day starts in 2009 and that is true as he has allowed only 1 ER in 21.0 innings during day games scattered over the span of three starts. Well that is all about to change today because the Astros bats have been asleep (well they sucked ass against the Rangers on the weekend) and I noticed that they have some guys who love hitting during the day. Check this out:
Miguel Tejada is batting .393 in daytime games
Hunter Pence is batting .345 in daytime games
Ivan Rodriguez is batting .340 in daytime games
Michael Bourn has 14 runs in 14 daytime games
Carlos Lee is batting .268 in daytime games
I know the side of choise is not the right side when it comes to who the Astros would rather face on the mound because they have not been as good against righties but they have been that good against Harang and I expect the same again today. Other things you need to know about the game today:
- Houston is 4-0 in their last four games as road favorites.
- Houston is 24-9 in their last 33 games as a favorite.
- Houston is 5-0 in Wandy Rodriguez's last five starts.
- Houston has won 10 of Rodriguez's last 14 starts in Game 1 of a series
- Cincinnati is 2-5 in their last 7 home games versus a left-handed starter.
- Harang sucks in Game 1 of a series as the Reds are 1-5 in his last six Game 1 starts.
- Houston is 5-0 in Wandy's last five starts in Cincinnati
- Houston always plays well here and have won 27 of their last 36 games in Cincinnati.
Thanks for reading guys...see you at the bank!
:toast:
, need matsui to drive in a run
