Fishead:
I'm sure you remember the greatest example of that in 1997 when Gregg umped the play-off game between Braves and Marlins. Livon Hernandez was at least 8 inches outside and was repeatedly given strikes. I thought it was great as I had Marlins for game and series but it was ridiculous!
I'm sure you remember the greatest example of that in 1997 when Gregg umped the play-off game between Braves and Marlins. Livon Hernandez was at least 8 inches outside and was repeatedly given strikes. I thought it was great as I had Marlins for game and series but it was ridiculous!
Over the last 10 years, no one comes close to John Hirshbeck for unders. He was virtually automatic until the sharps caught on and now every time he's behind the plate the under is bid down 1/2 to 1 full run. Hirshbeck, incidentally, was the ump that got spat on by Robbie Alomar in that infamous incident from a few years back. The best "under" ump in the last couple years has been Doug Eddings. He has averaged 2.75 strikeouts/walk for the last 4 years - nearly 1 strikeout per walk higher than the average ump. As for overs, the top ump for the last 7 years has been Derryl Cousins. Unfortunately Cousins hasn't umped this year. I don't know if he's retired, sick, on vacation, or what. Other good "over" umps are Marsh and Gary Cederstrom.
RioShill and the fellas are right, all the sharps, groups, & Koshers,etc..zero in on the home plate Umps.
Hell, it's why some of them pay for Don Best Premium, as many have no reach into the LV streets for numbers, nor really care what the screen really does as far as jumping, but wanted the capping info, this all before Covers, Statfox,etc..were proliferating the net.
Eric Gregg Unders in the heat..you're a sickie Fish..LMAO..did he ever lose the weight?
Hell, it's why some of them pay for Don Best Premium, as many have no reach into the LV streets for numbers, nor really care what the screen really does as far as jumping, but wanted the capping info, this all before Covers, Statfox,etc..were proliferating the net.
Eric Gregg Unders in the heat..you're a sickie Fish..LMAO..did he ever lose the weight?
This is just one of the reasons why I love Jim Feists site.
Great for Umpire stats.
http://www.jimfeist.ca/MLBSTATS/Umpire.aspx
Great for Umpire stats.
http://www.jimfeist.ca/MLBSTATS/Umpire.aspx
Funny story......
I met up with Eric a couple years ago at VETERANS Stadium where he was a bartendar in a watering hole at the stadium.
Had a couple brewskis and shot the shit with him the whole time and I actually mentioned to him about being an UNDER umpire.
He told me that I was not the first to tell him that and then I thanked him for providing me with a few winners and threw him a bone for a nice tip.
I met up with Eric a couple years ago at VETERANS Stadium where he was a bartendar in a watering hole at the stadium.
Had a couple brewskis and shot the shit with him the whole time and I actually mentioned to him about being an UNDER umpire.
He told me that I was not the first to tell him that and then I thanked him for providing me with a few winners and threw him a bone for a nice tip.
A terrific UNDER umpire working the ROCKIES game today........however we are in Coors Field and I also understand the wind is blowing out.
The biggest OVER umpire today may be in Baltimore.......so for you posters that ALLREADY like the OVER in this game, you just got some added insurance.
Wind has been reported to be blowing OUT also.
The biggest OVER umpire today may be in Baltimore.......so for you posters that ALLREADY like the OVER in this game, you just got some added insurance.
Wind has been reported to be blowing OUT also.
If you factor in umpires before betting totals take a look at a new book Betting Baseball A New Approach by Michael L. Murray.
It's a bit pricey ($40) but he's got 45 pages devoted just to umpires.
Murray credits Bob McCune, who advised adjusting your projected total downward by 1/2-run when a pitcher's umpire is behind the plate. According to McCune any ump that has more than 60% unders is a pitcher's ump. He would take one full run off his projected total if the ump went 'under' 70% or more.
In his book Murray also lists O/U results for each ump, including runs per game and strike percentage. He also has a chart that shows how often the home team wins when an individual umpire is behind the plate, a full count chart and records when the temperature is above 90 degrees and below 60.
It's a bit pricey ($40) but he's got 45 pages devoted just to umpires.
Murray credits Bob McCune, who advised adjusting your projected total downward by 1/2-run when a pitcher's umpire is behind the plate. According to McCune any ump that has more than 60% unders is a pitcher's ump. He would take one full run off his projected total if the ump went 'under' 70% or more.
In his book Murray also lists O/U results for each ump, including runs per game and strike percentage. He also has a chart that shows how often the home team wins when an individual umpire is behind the plate, a full count chart and records when the temperature is above 90 degrees and below 60.
On a personal note, Mr McCune and myself used to discuss NBA totals and MLB totals at length.
You are right with your above statements......however I always tried to point out to Bob, and still feel this way, that if you better off coordinating the UNDER factor with the BASE ON BALL factor also and draw some similarities.
Also, I like to look at a consistant pattern of at least 3-5 years on the UNDER/OVER factor percentage and the BASE ON BALLS factor.
From my own personal standpoint, I have found only a handful of umpires that I believe trully garnish as much as a half a run.
One of those umpires is Montague who is going today in Colorado.....a terrific Under umpire.
You are right with your above statements......however I always tried to point out to Bob, and still feel this way, that if you better off coordinating the UNDER factor with the BASE ON BALL factor also and draw some similarities.
Also, I like to look at a consistant pattern of at least 3-5 years on the UNDER/OVER factor percentage and the BASE ON BALLS factor.
From my own personal standpoint, I have found only a handful of umpires that I believe trully garnish as much as a half a run.
One of those umpires is Montague who is going today in Colorado.....a terrific Under umpire.
Fish,
I agree, the base on ball factor (or more precisely - the walk to strikeout ratio) is the much more important stat to look at when comparing umps. And you absolutely MUST take a large sample (several years of games) to make a legitimate evaluation. I have spent countless hours acquiring stats on every ump in MLB since 1997. I have them ranked in order - using data on over/under record, strikeout/walk ratio, and ball/stike ratio. I've weighted the more recent year's games higher, since any umpire can change his spots. I have also ranked the umpires for their "homer" tendancies (home/away record in games where they are behind the plate). Interestly, Fish, the ump that you mention as a great "under" ump (Montague), is also one of the alltime best "road" umps (take the road team when he is behind the plate), too. Won for me today again, btw. Incidentally, I have done the same analysis for NBA refs, also, if anyone's interested.
I agree, the base on ball factor (or more precisely - the walk to strikeout ratio) is the much more important stat to look at when comparing umps. And you absolutely MUST take a large sample (several years of games) to make a legitimate evaluation. I have spent countless hours acquiring stats on every ump in MLB since 1997. I have them ranked in order - using data on over/under record, strikeout/walk ratio, and ball/stike ratio. I've weighted the more recent year's games higher, since any umpire can change his spots. I have also ranked the umpires for their "homer" tendancies (home/away record in games where they are behind the plate). Interestly, Fish, the ump that you mention as a great "under" ump (Montague), is also one of the alltime best "road" umps (take the road team when he is behind the plate), too. Won for me today again, btw. Incidentally, I have done the same analysis for NBA refs, also, if anyone's interested.
