Anybody ever try middling MLB totals ?

postaldoug · Jul 9, 2004

It's kind of a new opportunity, with Pinnacle now offering up to 5 totals on a game, and fair juice.

For example, a stale ( several hours old ) Pinnacle line, on Pitts, Montreal.

ov 7.5 -121

un 9.5 -182

would work on any game !

You can't lose both, but can win both, with an 8 or9 ( common ), additional shopping may help some, but 20-cent runlines are difficult to shop for value.

I doubt it's blindly profitable to bet every one of these, just an idea, really ! You'd feel smart hitting it, but the question becomes " Can you hit enough, to be profitable ? " I doubt it, but it is a new angle !

Any Thoughts ?

Doug

THE SHRINK · Jul 9, 2004

That's a lot of juice to pay, but it's marginally very close to a play for me...

Getting off and onto an odd number like 9 in baseball is valued at around 30 cents for me, with even numbers like 8 worth far less, maybe 12 cents at this range...

THE SHRINK

postaldoug · Jul 9, 2004

My rule of thumb is on/off 7/9 is worth 25 cents. On /off 8/10 is worth 15 cents. It's imperfect, and not original, but accurate enough !

That covers most totals.

Too give credit where credit is due, this is " Cutter's rule of thumb'. He doesn't post here, Fezzik knows him. By the way, does Fezzik post here anymore ?

postaldoug · Jul 9, 2004

Bump, I'd like some answers ! Something better than what a guy that bet his house on the Lakers, says. Kidding, Ken !

jwunderdog · Jul 9, 2004

Starting to take a look at this now but with a polish twist. Taking a look at asap's # and pinnacles prop #s. Right now in the pirates game you could take over 10 +192 at asap and u9-152. down side -152 or -100 if it hits 9 or 10 . upside +40 if it goes over 10. or you could split it at +20 if it goes over10 or under 9.Have not had a chance to apply fequency #s to see if worth the risk.Looks a first brush there is about a 15% chance of 9 or 10 hitting.

jwunderdog · Jul 9, 2004

That 20 cent # is wrong it is lower then that.

Woody0 · Jul 9, 2004

Well its better to know how the line will move. I been watching Anaheim-Toronto.

Yesterday Pinnacle had u9.5 -114; o9.5 +104.

By this morning they had dropped the total to 8.5 and the line has been continually dropping to u8.5 -105 o8.5 -105.
They now offer u9.5 -158 and o9.5 +141. So its 27 cents if you get it right and 54 cents if you get it wrong. Of course if you are on the wrong side you could always gamble and see how the game turns out

. These are the scalp figures but you could always middle.

BTW I have one side on this game and need a total of 9.

Marco · Jul 9, 2004

If in doubt then try betting this for a while with an imaginary bankroll just to see how it would pan out over the course of a season....you are out only some paper and time and a 10 cent ink pen if you're wrong and it doesn't pay....