Looks like a fairly even matchup, just the home crowd factor could be a big key. I know a lot more about Arizona so I will focus on them and let others decide on a pick.
People never pay attention to Adams and Shakur, but those guys can come up big when opponents pay too much attention to Stoudamire. In many games where Salim wasn't hitting and was being double-teamed, Adams took over and drove it to the basket every single possesion until the opponent paid attention and opened it up for Salim. Frye has to come up big though and his reputation is to be terribly inconsistent and not look for his shot when he should. He seems to either be a huge force or a spectator, he doesn't seem to have a middle groudn.
With so much on the line and Olson being a solid coach in big situations against a less experienced Bruce Weber, the coaching factor could be important as well. Olson has been very good in the past at getting his guys to start solidly in big games. They can get a bit listless and off their game at times, so his job has to be sort of like in football, sticking to the plan and strengths.
Like so many games in this balanced field, it all comes down to who hits shots. There are times Salim is guarded better than you can even draw it up and he still hits.