Anybody else besides me liking Houston -3?

[ppeter]

While it is true Houston is 0-3 ats against ECU, I think these two teams are heading in opposite directions. Houston is playing with a lot of fire for their new head coach (blew out La Laffy on the road, ran up the score against Miss St. at home) while ECU is a mistake prone team that has yet to gell. I think Houston gets this by at least a td.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

I've recently been doing some analysis based upon those teams with high yards-per-rush playing teams giving up high yards-per-rush. East Carolina sent up flags with me as they are giving up 5.8 ypr this year! Houston is rushing at a respectable 4.1 ypr.

How will the EC defense be able to slow down Houston's offense? Houston is also a balanced team with passing yards being close to their rushing yards, further throwing off a confused EC defense.

The only reason I can see that this line is at -2.5 for Houston is because of last year's victory by EC at 54-48. Last year they had a respectable team. This year's results do not indicate that is the case. I'm going for a 10 - 14 point victory for Houston.

[This message was edited by BigGamesOnly on September 29, 2003 at 02:38 PM.]

 

[DanTanna]

Great analysis BGO.
Houston can move the ball, and will do so with ease against a D like ECU.

 

[GrandMasterB]

Line currently -2 @ 5 dimes...was -3 last night.

 

[BigPete]

Average power rating of opponents
HOUSTON 22.8, E CAROLINA 39

So the stats may be decieving.

Also take notice that both teams return close to the same amount of starters and ECU beat Houston at Houston last year.

Another thing that sticks out is that over 60% are on Houston and the lines still drops in Houston's favor from -4 to -2.5.

I do think Houston is the better team though.

 

[kbmnm247]

I hope you aren't getting the data that 60% on Houston from wager line.com Pete, because for 1) that is not the true public
2) there have only been 59 picks as of this second

if you aren't, then ok, but if you are going by that, that is not true data to research from

 

[BossTown]

Opened up at -4 now -2.5.

Houston is 3-1 but the combined record of their opponents is 0-14 - yes that's right 0-14. Now they play another winless team in ECU. I'm leaning ECU.

 

[GoBlue]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by BossTown:
Opened up at -4 now -2.5.

Houston is 3-1 but the combined record of their opponents is 0-14 - yes that's right 0-14. Now they play another winless team in ECU. I'm leaning ECU.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Houston played Michigan, who is 3-1

 

[BigGamesOnly]

BigPete:

Where do you get that average power rating of opponents info? That is a good point I think. Thanks for mentioning.

 

[BigPete]

I get em from Stat Fox. Warning, that is their power ratings.

 

[BigPete]

kbmnm247,
Thats what I use and one other, which are checks on each other. Thats about the best I would think I could get. I have no book connections.

I know WL isn't full of sharps, based on their records, so I would think they are a good representation of public perception of winners, even though it is contest money.

Even so, book minimums online are so low that folks play like those on WL and therefore are a decent representation of the public. In addition, it would be a better representation of people even if only 100 based on Geography alone.

Am I totally off here?

 

[ppeter]

Where is Panther? I though he was our resident ECU expert.

I think Houston is thinking possible minor bowl bid as a season goal while ECU is thinking "please God let us win just one game this season."

 

[BigPete]

The word on the street is that Panther is a goner.

Too bad, he really knows the Carolina teams.

 

[kbmnm247]

I agree with looking at WL as a basis for public, but not totally relying on it. I imagine I use it as a tool the same way you use it. Good luck, I like Houston in this one

 

[BossTown]

meant to say combined records of the 3 teams they beat. um whipped 'em,

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by GoBlue:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by BossTown:
Opened up at -4 now -2.5.

Houston is 3-1 but the combined record of their opponents is 0-14 - yes that's right 0-14. Now they play another winless team in ECU. I'm leaning ECU.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Houston played Michigan, who is 3-1<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

 

[ppeter]

So Houston's wins this year are all against winless opponents? Just like ECU?

 

[action]

Big Pete...Please explain the statement you made about Panther being a goner..


Action

 

[BigPete]

Something I read in the RR, I'm not at liberty to say fact or fiction since I dont know him.

Something about owing someone money and not paying.

 

[bhg]

Houston blew out La Lafayette on the road??? they won 21-14!

 

[ppeter]

ooops, sorry BHG, I was thinking of another game (I was writing from memory)

Anyway, I still like Houston and will be playing the over as well