Any interest in the forum for the "Sagrin" matchups index breakdown?

[Hoosierdaddy+]

I dont play all of the games obviously but this is one of the things I look at. I am sure most of you know what it is, but for those of you that dont Jeff Sagrin if a sportswriter that basically runs a system on all teams in order for you to compare them in a head to head situation and "predict" the outcome of the games. I mainly use it when im playing the money line, but its good information and pretty interesting to look at. if there is interest in the breakdowns based on Sagrin Index ill post them, i do them for myself to look at about everyday. An example of what it would look like would be for instance on a game tonight:

George Washington (71.44) @ Temple (86.74)
Current Line (Temple -13.5)

This is what the head to head matchup would produce according to Sagrin the numbers by the teams are their Sagrin index score; so the prediction I suppose is Temple basically winning by 15. Temples # includes 3.28 points for home court advantage.

Let me know if anyone is interested

 

[palehose1]

Sure the more info the better IMO

 

[oceanguy]

yes.....would be great :toast:

 

[Diothegreat]

Don't use those sagarin rankings, you will get killed

 

[ScreaminPain]

"....but for those of you that dont Jeff Sagrin if a sportswriter that basically runs a system on all teams in order for you to compare them in a head to head situation and "predict" the outcome of the games."
George Washington (71.44) @ Temple (86.74)
Current Line (Temple -13.5)

Well, some of what you say is true. However, Sagarin is NOT a sportswriter and he does not offer any "systems". Jeff is a statitician and provides his data in analytic form for review. His analyisis is reknown and used by many mainstream publications due to its accuracy.

Now for the bad part. I track his work on a daily basis as well as others. I use an additional spread of 3.1 pts,(additional margin above his "predictive" column) in order to maximize his better plays. In January, this method produced 203 plays of which he had 89 Wins and 114 losses (43.8%). This month this method has produced 36 plays and he has 16 Wins and 20 losses (44.4%).

So in closing, there is better analysis out there. I wouldn't base my wagers solely on his work.
Best of luck with your action....

 

[Hoosierdaddy+]

Wow great info thanks screamin

 

[LowTide]

I do think using the sagarin index can help one predict the lines days in advance--as for picking winners,that is up to us

 

[BRUTUS]

Well, some of what you say is true. However, Sagarin is NOT a sportswriter and he does not offer any "systems". Jeff is a statitician and provides his data in analytic form for review. His analyisis is reknown and used by many mainstream publications due to its accuracy.

Now for the bad part. I track his work on a daily basis as well as others. I use an additional spread of 3.1 pts,(additional margin above his "predictive" column) in order to maximize his better plays. In January, this method produced 203 plays of which he had 89 Wins and 114 losses (43.8%). This month this method has produced 36 plays and he has 16 Wins and 20 losses (44.4%).

So in closing, there is better analysis out there. I wouldn't base my wagers solely on his work.
Best of luck with your action....

how about we get those plays of yours and fade them...there are quite a few so it seems it would work...you would be up 18.5 units in a little over a month......your thoughts please..thnks

 

[billhill999]

Don't use those sagarin rankings, you will get killed

He was money last season.

 

[billhill999]

I use the Dunkel Index, his totals are money usually.


NCAA Basketball Picks

Illinois at Indiana

The Illini look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points. Illinois is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+8). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 9
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST
Game 709-710: NC State at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 63.346; Georgia Tech 59.032
Dunkel Line: NC State by 4 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: NC State by 3 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-3 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: Mississippi at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 59.918; Mississippi State 69.098
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 9; 140
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 7 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick Mississippi State (-7); Over
Game 713-714: Denver at Florida Atlantic (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 56.665; Florida Atlantic 57.838
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+1); Under
Game 715-716: North Texas at Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 56.509; Florida International 58.926
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 2 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Florida International by 1; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-1); Over
Game 717-718: Wisconsin at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 70.279; Minnesota 71.377
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 108
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1; 114
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1); Under
Game 719-720: Valparaiso at Cleveland State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 58.399; Cleveland State 65.163
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7; 135
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 9 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+9 1/2); Over
Game 721-722: Butler at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 56.226; Youngstown State 55.603
Dunkel Line: Butler by 1; 124
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 1; 128
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+1); Under
Game 723-724: Arkansas-Little Rock at UL-Lafayette (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Little Rock 53.060; UL-Lafayette 57.573
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 4 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 6; 130
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+6); Over
Game 725-726: Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 49.856; Middle Tennessee State 66.036
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 16; 133
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 14; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-14); Over
Game 727-728: Arkansas State at South Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 49.440; South Alabama 53.859
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 4 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3; 123
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-3); Under
Game 729-730: Illinois at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 64.732; Indiana 70.066
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 5 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Indiana by 8; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+8); Over
Game 731-732: Colorado at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 63.176; Arizona 72.795
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7; 129
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7); Under
Game 733-734: Utah at Arizona State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 46.919; Arizona State 55.267
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 8 1/2; 113
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 11; 118
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+11); Under
Game 735-736: Iowa at Northwestern (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 61.150; Northwestern 70.838
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 7; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-7); Over
Game 737-738: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 63.513; Miami (FL) 67.234
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 6 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+6 1/2); Over
Game 739-740: Louisiana Tech at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 52.382; Utah State 59.888
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 7 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Utah State by 10; 134
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+10); Under
Game 741-742: Washington State at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 57.101; Oregon State 68.776
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 11 1/2; 151
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 9 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-9 1/2); Over
Game 743-744: Fresno State at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 56.333; San Jose State 52.890
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 3 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-2); Under
Game 745-746: Santa Clara at San Francisco (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 46.488; San Francisco 56.850
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 12 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+12 1/2); Over
Game 747-748: San Diego at Peppersine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 52.500; Pepperdine 53.555
Dunkel Line: Pepperdine by 1; 122
Vegas Line: Pepperdine by 2 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Under
Game 749-750: CS-Northridge at UC-Davis (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 45.302; UC-Davis 44.042
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 1 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 1; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-1); Over
Game 751-752: UC-Riverside at Cal Poly (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 46.243; Cal Poly 57.017
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 11; 109
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 9 1/2; 113 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (-9 1/2); Under
Game 753-754: UC-Irvine at CS-Fullerton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 49.702; CS-Fullerton 59.055
Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 9 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 11 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+11 1/2); Over
Game 755-756: Long Beach State at Pacific (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 65.458; Pacific 54.316
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 11; 129
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 9; 134
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-9); Under
Game 757-758: California at USC (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 64.969; USC 58.712
Dunkel Line: California by 6 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: California by 8; 114 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (+8); Over
Game 759-760: Loyola-Marymount at Portland (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 58.759; Portland 53.176
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 5 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 4; 140
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (-4); Under
Game 761-762: Washington at Oregon (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 65.936; Oregon 64.434
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 151
Vegas Line: Pick; 146
Dunkel Pick: Washington; Over
Game 763-764: Stanford at UCLA (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 60.412; UCLA 69.218
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 9; 121
Vegas Line: UCLA by 6 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-6 1/2); Under
Game 765-766: St. Mary's at Gonzaga (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 65.758; Gonzaga 70.108
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 4 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-2 1/2); Over
Game 767-768: New Mexico State at Idaho (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.366; Idaho 59.033
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 1 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 1; 141
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-1); Under
Game 769-770: Nevada at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 59.315; Hawaii 56.695
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 2 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Nevada by 1; 139
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1); Over
Game 771-772: Wofford at Georgia Southern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 52.862; Georgia Southern 52.565
Dunkel Line: Even; 122
Vegas Line: Wofford by 1 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+1 1/2); Under
Game 773-774: Davidson at The Citadel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 61.120; The Citadel 45.543
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 14 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Davidson by 17; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+17); Over
Game 775-776: Appalachian State at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 44.988; Furman 53.206
Dunkel Line: Furman by 8; 125
Vegas Line: Furman by 6; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (-6); Under
Game 777-778: Siena at Niagara (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 48.154; Niagara 53.592
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 5 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Niagara by 4 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-4 1/2); Over
Game 779-780: Rider at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 50.813; Canisius 47.426
Dunkel Line: Rider by 3 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: Rider by 5; 148
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+5); Over
Game 781-782: Elon at Chattanooga (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 45.049; Chattanooga 52.808
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 7 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 5; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (-5); Under
Game 783-784: Manhattan at Fairfield (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 57.159; Fairfield 59.736
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 2 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 4; 128
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+4); Over
Game 785-786: Western Carolina at College of Charleston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 45.340; College of Charleston 54.627
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 9 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 11 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+11 1/2); Under
Game 787-788: NC-Greensboro at Samford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 48.536; Samford 50.722
Dunkel Line: Samford by 2; 145
Vegas Line: Samford by 4; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+4); Over
Game 789-790: Tennessee State at Murray State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 52.125; Murray State 65.568
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 13 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Murray State by 11; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-11); Under
Game 791-792: Eastern Illinois at Tennessee Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 43.001; Tennessee Tech 53.267
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 10 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 12 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+12 1/2); Over
Game 793-794: Tennessee-Martin at SE Missouri State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 39.646; SE Missouri State 53.264
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 13 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: SE Missouri State by 11; 141
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (-11); Under
Game 795-796: Weber State at Northern Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.932; Northern Arizona 44.023
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 10; 145
Vegas Line: Weber State by 11 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+11 1/2); Over
Game 797-798: Marist at St. Peter's (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 41.545; St. Peter's 49.236
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 7 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 4 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-4 1/2); Under
Game 799-800: Montana at Northern Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 55.402; Northern Colorado 50.939
Dunkel Line: Montana by 4 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Montana by 7; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+7); Under
Game 801-802: Portland State at Idaho State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 49.028; Idaho State 48.747
Dunkel Line: Even; 148
Vegas Line: Portland State by 1; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+1); Over
Game 803-804: Montana State at Sacramento State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 46.789; Sacramento State 48.210
Dunkel Line: Sacramento State by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Sacramento State by 4; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+4); Under
Game 811-812: North Dakota State at UMKC (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 56.630; UMKC 49.730
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 7; 142
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 6; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-6); Over
Game 813-814: IUPUI at Oral Roberts (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 50.134; Oral Roberts 62.869
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 12 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 14; 145
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (+14); Over
Game 815-816: South Dakota State at South Dakota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 65.174; South Dakota 52.731
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 12 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 11; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-11); Under
Game 817-818: Western Illinois at Southern Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 50.502; Southern Utah 51.166
Dunkel Line: Southern Utah by 1; 121
Vegas Line: Southern Utah by 2; 115
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (+2); Over

 

[billhill999]

Jeff Sagarin is an American sports statistician well-known for his development of a methodology for ranking and rating sports teams in a variety of sports. His ratings have been a regular feature in the USA Today sports section since 1985, have been used by the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to help determine the participants in the NCAA Men's Division I Basketball Championship tournament since 1984, and have been a part of the Bowl Championship Series since its inception in 1998

Sagarin earned a Bachelor of Science in mathematics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1970

Sagarin, like the developers of many other sports rating systems, does not divulge the exact methodology behind his system. He offers two rating systems, each of which gives each team a certain number of points. One system, "Elo chess," is presumably based on the Elo rating system used internationally to rank chess players. This system uses only wins and losses, with no reference to the victory margin. The other system, "Predictor," takes victory margin into account. For that system, the difference in two teams' rating scores is meant to predict the margin of victory for the stronger team at a neutral venue. For both systems, teams gain higher ratings within the Sagarin system by winning games against stronger opponents, factoring in such things as home-venue advantage. For the Predictor system, margin of victory (or defeat) factors in also, but a law of diminishing returns is applied. Therefore, a football team that wins a game by a margin of 7-6 is rewarded less than a team that defeats the same opponent under the same circumstances 21-7, but a team that wins a game by a margin of 35-0 receives similar ratings to a team that defeats the same opponent 70-0. This characteristic has the effect of recognizing "comfortable" victories, while limiting the reward for running up the score.
At the beginning of a season, when only a few games have been played, a Bayesian network weighted by starting rankings is used as long as there are whole groups of teams that have not played one another, but once the graph is well-connected, the weights are no longer needed. Sagarin claims that from that point, the rankings are unbiased

 

[ScreaminPain]

how about we get those plays of yours and fade them...there are quite a few so it seems it would work...you would be up 18.5 units in a little over a month......your thoughts please..thnks

Interesting thought.....however, I'm certainly NOT in the business of "fading" a reknown mathimatician with a degree from MIT. His work is based upon analyitic factors, but it does not consider certain variances that include revenge factors (if those exist), travel woes, (that pop up frequently in Winter), and most importantly injuries, and suspensions.

I find his work about as accurate as any. You may look at Massey and Entropy, as they provide similar projections, even Statfox is as accurate as Sagarin. Pomeroy's early efforts were epic, but I feel the linesmakers have "caught up" to him.

I'm currently tracking combinations of these in various forms, hoping for collaborative functions that may be valuable for predictive purposes. I doubt anything will prove valuable until next year when all the analysis is evaluated.

Good Luck with your action....,

 

[BRUTUS]

screaming...just wondering if u have been tracking or are u playing those plays.....how many months have u followed this?...is it possible to put the plays up here so that i can fade them at 50-100 per play....why wouldnt u fade a guy because he has a degree...not bashing or creating controversy..just trying to beat the book

 

[billhill999]

What you do, is you listen to what ken Pomeroy has to say, you listen to what Jeff Sagarin has to say, you listen to what Jeff Dunkel has to say, the three men I listen to, and if there is a consensus, well, it's either play or pass.

If you have Dunkel and Pomeroy or Sagarin and Dunkel on one side, it would not be wise to say "fade, what do these guys know"
You can always pass.

But, know this, in 2009, and many here can attest to this, I was posting plays with Sagarin numbers, and we were crushing it, (ask OMT) this forum was on a mother freaking 6 1/2 week tear.
Now, everybody, even Mr. Chalk Benji Lee Eckstein and his -160 plays go on a cooler, but when 'capping a game it would behoove you to factor in Pomeroy, Sagarin, and Dunkel (or others if you want)

 

[thenatti]

I use the Dunkel Index, his totals are money usually.


NCAA Basketball Picks

Illinois at Indiana

The Illini look to build on their 10-4 ATS record in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7 to 12 1/2 points. Illinois is the pick (+8) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoosiers favored by only 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+8). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 9
Time Posted: 9:00 a.m. EST
Game 709-710: NC State at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 63.346; Georgia Tech 59.032
Dunkel Line: NC State by 4 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: NC State by 3 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: NC State (-3 1/2); Under
Game 711-712: Mississippi at Mississippi State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi 59.918; Mississippi State 69.098
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 9; 140
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 7 1/2; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick Mississippi State (-7); Over
Game 713-714: Denver at Florida Atlantic (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 56.665; Florida Atlantic 57.838
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 1; 117
Vegas Line: Denver by 1; 121 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+1); Under
Game 715-716: North Texas at Florida International (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Texas 56.509; Florida International 58.926
Dunkel Line: Florida International by 2 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Florida International by 1; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (-1); Over
Game 717-718: Wisconsin at Minnesota (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 70.279; Minnesota 71.377
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 108
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 1; 114
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+1); Under
Game 719-720: Valparaiso at Cleveland State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 58.399; Cleveland State 65.163
Dunkel Line: Cleveland State by 7; 135
Vegas Line: Cleveland State by 9 1/2; 131 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (+9 1/2); Over
Game 721-722: Butler at Youngstown State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 56.226; Youngstown State 55.603
Dunkel Line: Butler by 1; 124
Vegas Line: Youngstown State by 1; 128
Dunkel Pick: Butler (+1); Under
Game 723-724: Arkansas-Little Rock at UL-Lafayette (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas-Little Rock 53.060; UL-Lafayette 57.573
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 4 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 6; 130
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas-Little Rock (+6); Over
Game 725-726: Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 49.856; Middle Tennessee State 66.036
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 16; 133
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 14; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-14); Over
Game 727-728: Arkansas State at South Alabama (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 49.440; South Alabama 53.859
Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 4 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3; 123
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (-3); Under
Game 729-730: Illinois at Indiana (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 64.732; Indiana 70.066
Dunkel Line: Indiana by 5 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Indiana by 8; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+8); Over
Game 731-732: Colorado at Arizona (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 63.176; Arizona 72.795
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 9 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Arizona by 7; 129
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-7); Under
Game 733-734: Utah at Arizona State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 46.919; Arizona State 55.267
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 8 1/2; 113
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 11; 118
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+11); Under
Game 735-736: Iowa at Northwestern (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa 61.150; Northwestern 70.838
Dunkel Line: Northwestern by 9 1/2; 152
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 7; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northwestern (-7); Over
Game 737-738: Virginia Tech at Miami (FL) (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 63.513; Miami (FL) 67.234
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 3 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 6 1/2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (+6 1/2); Over
Game 739-740: Louisiana Tech at Utah State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 52.382; Utah State 59.888
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 7 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Utah State by 10; 134
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+10); Under
Game 741-742: Washington State at Oregon State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 57.101; Oregon State 68.776
Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 11 1/2; 151
Vegas Line: Oregon State by 9 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (-9 1/2); Over
Game 743-744: Fresno State at San Jose State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fresno State 56.333; San Jose State 52.890
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 3 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 2; 132 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Fresno State (-2); Under
Game 745-746: Santa Clara at San Francisco (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Santa Clara 46.488; San Francisco 56.850
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10 1/2; 157
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 12 1/2; 154
Dunkel Pick: Santa Clara (+12 1/2); Over
Game 747-748: San Diego at Peppersine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 52.500; Pepperdine 53.555
Dunkel Line: Pepperdine by 1; 122
Vegas Line: Pepperdine by 2 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+2 1/2); Under
Game 749-750: CS-Northridge at UC-Davis (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: CS-Northridge 45.302; UC-Davis 44.042
Dunkel Line: CS-Northridge by 1 1/2; 142
Vegas Line: CS-Northridge by 1; 138 1/2
Dunkel Pick: CS-Northridge (-1); Over
Game 751-752: UC-Riverside at Cal Poly (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Riverside 46.243; Cal Poly 57.017
Dunkel Line: Cal Poly by 11; 109
Vegas Line: Cal Poly by 9 1/2; 113 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (-9 1/2); Under
Game 753-754: UC-Irvine at CS-Fullerton (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UC-Irvine 49.702; CS-Fullerton 59.055
Dunkel Line: CS-Fullerton by 9 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: CS-Fullerton by 11 1/2; 149 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UC-Irvine (+11 1/2); Over
Game 755-756: Long Beach State at Pacific (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 65.458; Pacific 54.316
Dunkel Line: Long Beach State by 11; 129
Vegas Line: Long Beach State by 9; 134
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (-9); Under
Game 757-758: California at USC (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 64.969; USC 58.712
Dunkel Line: California by 6 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: California by 8; 114 1/2
Dunkel Pick: USC (+8); Over
Game 759-760: Loyola-Marymount at Portland (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Marymount 58.759; Portland 53.176
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Marymount by 5 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: Loyola-Marymount by 4; 140
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Marymount (-4); Under
Game 761-762: Washington at Oregon (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 65.936; Oregon 64.434
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 151
Vegas Line: Pick; 146
Dunkel Pick: Washington; Over
Game 763-764: Stanford at UCLA (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 60.412; UCLA 69.218
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 9; 121
Vegas Line: UCLA by 6 1/2; 127
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-6 1/2); Under
Game 765-766: St. Mary's at Gonzaga (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 65.758; Gonzaga 70.108
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 4 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 2 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-2 1/2); Over
Game 767-768: New Mexico State at Idaho (11:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 60.366; Idaho 59.033
Dunkel Line: New Mexico State by 1 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: New Mexico State by 1; 141
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico State (-1); Under
Game 769-770: Nevada at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 59.315; Hawaii 56.695
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 2 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Nevada by 1; 139
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-1); Over
Game 771-772: Wofford at Georgia Southern (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wofford 52.862; Georgia Southern 52.565
Dunkel Line: Even; 122
Vegas Line: Wofford by 1 1/2; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+1 1/2); Under
Game 773-774: Davidson at The Citadel (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 61.120; The Citadel 45.543
Dunkel Line: Davidson by 14 1/2; 147
Vegas Line: Davidson by 17; 143 1/2
Dunkel Pick: The Citadel (+17); Over
Game 775-776: Appalachian State at Furman (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 44.988; Furman 53.206
Dunkel Line: Furman by 8; 125
Vegas Line: Furman by 6; 130 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Furman (-6); Under
Game 777-778: Siena at Niagara (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 48.154; Niagara 53.592
Dunkel Line: Niagara by 5 1/2; 141
Vegas Line: Niagara by 4 1/2; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Niagara (-4 1/2); Over
Game 779-780: Rider at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rider 50.813; Canisius 47.426
Dunkel Line: Rider by 3 1/2; 155
Vegas Line: Rider by 5; 148
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (+5); Over
Game 781-782: Elon at Chattanooga (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 45.049; Chattanooga 52.808
Dunkel Line: Chattanooga by 7 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Chattanooga by 5; 141 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chattanooga (-5); Under
Game 783-784: Manhattan at Fairfield (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 57.159; Fairfield 59.736
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 2 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 4; 128
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+4); Over
Game 785-786: Western Carolina at College of Charleston (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 45.340; College of Charleston 54.627
Dunkel Line: College of Charleston by 9 1/2; 135
Vegas Line: College of Charleston by 11 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+11 1/2); Under
Game 787-788: NC-Greensboro at Samford (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC-Greensboro 48.536; Samford 50.722
Dunkel Line: Samford by 2; 145
Vegas Line: Samford by 4; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC-Greensboro (+4); Over
Game 789-790: Tennessee State at Murray State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee State 52.125; Murray State 65.568
Dunkel Line: Murray State by 13 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Murray State by 11; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Murray State (-11); Under
Game 791-792: Eastern Illinois at Tennessee Tech (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Illinois 43.001; Tennessee Tech 53.267
Dunkel Line: Tennessee Tech by 10 1/2; 139
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 12 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Illinois (+12 1/2); Over
Game 793-794: Tennessee-Martin at SE Missouri State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee-Martin 39.646; SE Missouri State 53.264
Dunkel Line: SE Missouri State by 13 1/2; 136
Vegas Line: SE Missouri State by 11; 141
Dunkel Pick: SE Missouri State (-11); Under
Game 795-796: Weber State at Northern Arizona (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Weber State 53.932; Northern Arizona 44.023
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 10; 145
Vegas Line: Weber State by 11 1/2; 139 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+11 1/2); Over
Game 797-798: Marist at St. Peter's (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marist 41.545; St. Peter's 49.236
Dunkel Line: St. Peter's by 7 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: St. Peter's by 4 1/2; 134
Dunkel Pick: St. Peter's (-4 1/2); Under
Game 799-800: Montana at Northern Colorado (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 55.402; Northern Colorado 50.939
Dunkel Line: Montana by 4 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Montana by 7; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado (+7); Under
Game 801-802: Portland State at Idaho State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Portland State 49.028; Idaho State 48.747
Dunkel Line: Even; 148
Vegas Line: Portland State by 1; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Idaho State (+1); Over
Game 803-804: Montana State at Sacramento State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana State 46.789; Sacramento State 48.210
Dunkel Line: Sacramento State by 1 1/2; 131
Vegas Line: Sacramento State by 4; 135 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana State (+4); Under
Game 811-812: North Dakota State at UMKC (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 56.630; UMKC 49.730
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 7; 142
Vegas Line: North Dakota State by 6; 136 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (-6); Over
Game 813-814: IUPUI at Oral Roberts (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: IUPUI 50.134; Oral Roberts 62.869
Dunkel Line: Oral Roberts by 12 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Oral Roberts by 14; 145
Dunkel Pick: IUPUI (+14); Over
Game 815-816: South Dakota State at South Dakota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 65.174; South Dakota 52.731
Dunkel Line: South Dakota State by 12 1/2; 143
Vegas Line: South Dakota State by 11; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (-11); Under
Game 817-818: Western Illinois at Southern Utah (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Illinois 50.502; Southern Utah 51.166
Dunkel Line: Southern Utah by 1; 121
Vegas Line: Southern Utah by 2; 115
Dunkel Pick: Western Illinois (+2); Over

Where can you obtain this information on a daily basis?

 

[Hoosierdaddy+]

Where can you obtain this information on a daily basis?

Dunkle went 23-25 ATS and 20-28 on totals last night..

Dunkleindex.com

These systems for pitting teams against one another using statistics is cool but llike everyone above is saying its on us to pick winners. Thanks for all the input guys

 

[ScreaminPain]

screaming...just wondering if u have been tracking or are u playing those plays.....how many months have u followed this?...is it possible to put the plays up here so that i can fade them at 50-100 per play....why wouldnt u fade a guy because he has a degree...not bashing or creating controversy..just trying to beat the book

BRUTUS...In an ongoing process, I have a macro that imports Sagarins data on a daily basis. It also brings in others such as Statfox, Ken Massey, Entropy, Dan Curry Index. NONE of these projections produce a bevy of winning projections, but it's my hope that a correlation may be useful.

I've been acquiring this data for only 2 years now. I think I'll have enough games after this season to process it and begin using filters that hopefully will be reliable. Because each of these "forcasters" predict EVERY game, it's a matter of analyitics to determine which of these may be "BEST BETS", or even betable and which are not. I will attempt that in the off-season.

Good Luck on your action...

 

[billhill999]

Dunkle went 23-25 ATS and 20-28 on totals last night..

Dunkleindex.com

These systems for pitting teams against one another using statistics is cool but llike everyone above is saying its on us to pick winners. Thanks for all the input guys

Dunkel had a bad night last night, I know, but overall he's a slight winner.
Don't use one day samplings, and also play his biggest disparity