won a few $$$ Thurs and Fri on Wake and Temple so I would like to throw it all on ML for a dog.
New Mexico+6.5 at home ????
or
Bama +4 With a great linebacker core returning aganst mostly freshman O-line in Clemson?
-Although I think Alabama's LB core is underrated they are far from great. They are led by True sophomore Rolando Mcclain in the middle along with True freshman Donta Hightower. They will be playing inside with junior Cory Reamer at outside and Brandon Fanney at the "Jack" linebacker position. Saban runs a 3-4 defense but most of the time tonight you will see a 4 man front with Fanney moving up to the LOS and playing with his hand on the ground. This "Jack" position is very critical to the success of the 3-4 defense (along with NT). Think Jason Taylor at Miami and that gives you a sense of what this coaching staff is looking for in terms of production. Unfortunately, Alabama has no one who is athletic enough and has enough experience to have a huge impact. There are a few freshman who will step into that type of role but we are at least 1-2 years away.
As far as Clemson's OL they have no freshman starting. Their OL has 4 seniors and 1 junior. They are inexperienced but not young and I think they will do an adequate job.
With that being said I still feel Alabama is the play at +4 or more. Most of the value has been lost on the ML as the line has dropped several points since its opening and you no longer can get Alabama at +200 or more on the ML.
I still think Alabama has a great shot at winning but for the following reasons:
1. Our NT against Clemson's OL. They should have to double team him.
2. Our underrated WR core.
3. Alabama's experience along the OL
4. Year 2 of Saban's defense
5. SEC officials (this is the least of the factors but it cant hurt)
Best of luck whatever you decide!