Any Baseball Linemakers out there.

[wilheim]

Just for the hell of it, I made some numbers for tomorrow's NL games. Where did I go wrong?


51 CIN P WILSON -R +138
52 CUB M CLEMENT -R -148

53 FLA A BURNETT -R +113
54 PHI K MILLWOOD-R -123

55 PIT K BENSON -R +148
56 ATL P BYRD -R -158

57 MON PATTERSON -R +148
58 NYM J SEO -R -158

59 MIL V SANTOS -R +160
60 STL W WILLIAMS-R -170

61 HOU A PETTITTE-L -139
62 ARI B WEBB -R +129

63 COL S ESTES -L +151
64 LOS K ISHII -L -161

65 SDG J PEAVY -R -108
66 SFO K RUETER -L -102

Made a few adjustments. wil.

[This message was edited by wilheim on July 20, 2004 at 11:01 PM.]

 

[JimFiestSux]

Pretty good Will, you're only off by 2$ on each one according to Jim Feists Overnite lines,lol!

 

[wilheim]

Really, 2 cents off, not sure if that is good or bad. The lines are pretty much cloned from several sources. Maybe I should have made a couple way off. I have no idea where Jim Fiest's lines are posted if it makes any differance.


wil.

 

[JimFiestSux]

Will its at www.JimFeist.com scroll on left side to overnite lines! Lines are usually posted after 6pm nightly!

 

[daringly]

Hey wilheim, how do you set odds if you don't have a lot of info on a pitcher? (e.g. a minor-league pitcher moving up, or a starter injured earlier with fewer than 30 ip)

A few odds I have are...

CHC -143
STL -160
COL -103

So tomorrow, I'll be playing Colorado. On the games I play, my team has done very well. After 120 plays this season, we have a 12% ROR at 95% confidence.

 

[wilheim]

Daringly, sorry just now noticed your post. I have had some success with minor league call ups. First thing I do is find out where they have been pitching in minors, then check the overall record for season. I use USA Today for this, it has excellent minor league stats. Then I go backwards and check out box scores where the kid pitched and see what he has been doing lately. I go back maybe 5 starts, most of the time the guys has been pitching well or he would not have been called up. Once in a while a pitching desparate team is forced to call up a so-so pitcher from the minors, one that has no business in the bigs. Time consuming but worth the effort. If a kid has been getting tagged in the minors he figures to have worse problems in the majors. Another indicator is age, when you see a team bring up a 31 year old rookie there is a reason why it took him so long to make it to the show. Injuries are not as easy, naturally you have pre-injury form to look at, but generally I will take a pass or go against a guy coming off an injury, especially arm trouble. I like to use opponets batting average as a tool for evaluating a pitcher also, I break it down to vs. lefties and righties, then look at the hitters he is due to see that particular game. There are a lot of other little things that I find useful when capping a pitcher, road/home, runners in scoring position numbers, K's to walks, hits to innings pitched, even which part of the season it is. Some guys do well late others early etc.



BOL.wil.