Another back-door special prop from Intertops

[Jazz]

Don't get me wrong - I actually LIKE Intertops, but from time to time they will try to butt-burgle the squares and those too lazy to line-shop, and I figure it's worth a laugh to see it if nothing else ...

Perfect 16: Will the Chiefs go undefeated?

Closing Date: Nov 09, 2003 12:00 GMT -6

Simply select whether or not you think the Kansas City Chiefs will win all of their 16 NFL regular season games. The Chiefs must play all 16 regular season games for your bet to have action.

Bet Options Available
Option Win Odds

NO -10000
YES +900

-10,000!!??? You can get it for -1,270 at Pinnacle and -1,950 at Bluegrass if you've a mind to bet this. And that +900 is no bargain either - Pinny's offering +1070 and Bluegrass is offering the best by far at +1300.

Let me put this into context: the return at Intertops vs. Pinnacle on a risked identical wager of $10,000 will return you exactly $100 at Intertops and $787.40 at Pinnacle - so at Pinny you get 7.874 TIMES MORE money than you would at Intertops.

 

[krackman]

Good find

Another book with zero customer service.

 

[Jazz]

Well, so far I've never had a problem with them, but then I haven't really needed it. Should add that Bodog is offering +1400 on the 'yes' side of this bet.

 

[pja101]

They actually DO have a prop up that holds some value imo.

KC to Remain Unbeaten at Home during the Regular Season

No- -140
Yes +100

Their four games remaining at home- Cle, Oak, Det, and Chi

They will be at least -500 on the ML in each game. You'd be able to play "yes" at +100 and hedge with each of the road teams on the MLs, though you'd might want to play the MLs somewhere else. Intertops offering value?

 

[Jazz]

Hmmm ... a quick glance shows the max on this bet would be $275 to win $275 that KC would remain unbeaten at home.

Assuming each team is a +420 ML dog, as Cleveland is right now at Pinnacle ... exactly how would you make any money?

Assume you laid out exactly one-fourth of the $275 on each dog ML, which, if you lost all 4 bets at +420 would leave you break-even - if you won the first dog ML, you'd cash $288.75 less the $275 for a net profit of $13.75. If you lost the first bet, then you cannot fail to lose money overall unless of course KC remains unbeaten at home ...


Game 1 - dog wins, profit = $288.50 - $275 = $13.50

Game 2: dog wins, loss = $288.50 - $275 - Game 1 loss of $68.75 = -$55.25

Game 3: dog wins, loss = $288.50 - $275 - Game 1+2 losses of $137.50 = -$124

Game 4: dog wins, loss = $288.50 - $275 - Game 1+2+3 losses of $206.25 = -$192.75


If you bet smaller amounts on the dog ML in game 1 and they win, you'll lose money. Bet higher, and you're going to lose even more money.

I don't see value in this - am I wrong?

 

[pja101]

Yes, I caught that a few minutes after I posted it. There is, of course, no value in the hedging. I just gave it a quick thought and forgot to factor the hedge losses into the equation(I need another drink)

Though, there is value in the "yes" bet. I'm fairly certain the -500 this week, will be the lowest you'd find them of the four weeks. It's hard to imagine them to at any lower than -600 against any of the three remaining teams, probably much more against Detroit, and Oakland(assuming they lose their next two against the Jets and Vikings). They could dip to somewhere around -500 again against the Bears in Week 17, especially if they have nothing to play for.

Though not a great deal of value, there is some imo, depending on what you figure the MLs to be in the three remainders.

 

[Jazz]

Trust me, I've been there just recently where I did the same exact thing - drinking does NOT help! lol

But given the max of $275 you can put up, it doesn't give the kind of return I'd expect to get for futzing around for weeks with it. I can also say this: I do believe that if KC has managed to lock up the home field playoffs, you will see the starters playing very little in the game(s) remaining, and Vermeil is no idiot, he's not going to show off what he's going to use in the playoffs - he'll focus instead on whatever the weakest areas are for the team, and I'd be stunned if they didn't get beaten, with the 14th game with Detroit sandwiched between Denver and Minnesota, and the final game at home against the Bears.

Concerning the season: no way do they go unbeaten - in fact, I'll probably start off a very small dog ML just for some laughs, say starting with $10 to win $42, etc ...