[h=1]Is Wiggins a superstar talent?[/h][h=3]Freshman should be lock for top-3 pick, but numbers don't equal upside[/h]By Chad Ford, Kevin Pelton, Amin Elhassan
| ESPN Insider
During a news conference on Monday afternoon, Kansas freshman Andrew Wiggins announced his intention to enter the 2014 NBA draft. Wiggins isn't a lock for the No. 1 pick overall, but it's very likely he'll go in the top 3. To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Amin Elhassan (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices).
[h=4]Andrew Wiggins | 6-8, 200 POUNDS | SHOOTING GUARD | FRESHMAN[/h]
Chad Ford's Top 100: No. 1
Strengths: Athleticism, defense | Weaknesses: Assist%
WARP projection: 1.5 (23rd among Top 100)
Comparables: Luol Deng (98.2), Tobias Harris (97.5), Maurice Harkless (96.6), Quincy Miller (96.2)
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[h=3]The analytics perspective[/h]
Kevin Pelton: As discussed when Chad Ford and I debated Wiggins' NBA potential, his relatively pedestrian advanced statistics don't match his reputation. Wiggins' translated college statistics don't put him in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound wings in any of the nine core skills I evaluate for strengths and weaknesses. At this point, individual defense -- which doesn't show up in the box score -- is probably Wiggins' best skill. That's valuable, but not the stuff of superstardom.
The interesting question is how different Wiggins' impact will be in the NBA game. An open floor will help him take more advantage of his athleticism around the basket. At the same time, he's unlikely to get as many of the transition opportunities that fueled his production at Kansas. According to Synergy Sports, Wiggins shot 62.0 percent in transition as compared to just 41.4 percent in half-court sets.
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[h=3]The scouting perspective[/h]
Amin Elhassan: Wiggins is a prototypical wing athlete, combining grace and power in a long, lithe body. He jumps well off either one or two feet, but he has much better explosion off two feet. He's got excellent body control and is able to slither and adjust midair to avoid contact. He can finish with either hand but overwhelmingly wants to go right; he can't go left for more than a beat before coming back right or pulling up for the jumper. His handles in general are a little high and loose, so he's not really adept at creating off the dribble if it doesn't come against a hard closeout from the defender. He comes very wide off screens; that attention to detail isn't quite there. He's active on the offensive glass; he'll follow his misses and make the defense pay.
Defensively, he's much more engaged on the ball than he is off it. He uses his length to give himself a cushion, but he's laterally quick enough to play closer if necessary. An underwhelming rebounder considering his physical gifts, Wiggins is a good shot-blocker (perhaps too much for his own good; he'll get beat by his man to recover for the block). He has decent awareness off the ball.
Wiggins' success at the next level will come down to skill development, as he has the physical tools but needs to get sharper. His rough-around-the-edges skill set is holding back his potential.
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[h=3]The NBA front office perspective[/h]Chad Ford: Wiggins began the summer as the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. Once the season actually started, competition from Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid changed the consensus status. But other than a brief stint when Embiid ascended to the No. 1 spot, Wiggins has been there the entire time.
While scouts and GMs wring their hands over the fact that Wiggins isn't a complete player yet (his jump shot and handle both still need work) and have fretted over his lack of aggressiveness (especially at the beginning of the season), there's a general consensus that has been out there since the beginning that he's still the best long-term prospect in the draft.
He has elite size and elite athletic abilities for his position. He's already a lock-down defender. He's a hard worker and a great teammate. He already possesses a ton of NBA tools and won't have to face zone defenses every night, which should open up the game for him. If he keeps working on his game and stays healthy, there's no reason he can't become a Paul George-like player in the NBA.
While he's not a lock to go No. 1 -- the Jazz, for instance, have Parker ranked ahead of Wiggins -- there is no way Wiggins falls out of the top 3.
| ESPN Insider
During a news conference on Monday afternoon, Kansas freshman Andrew Wiggins announced his intention to enter the 2014 NBA draft. Wiggins isn't a lock for the No. 1 pick overall, but it's very likely he'll go in the top 3. To help readers get to know top NBA draft prospects, Insider offers a 360-degree look at many of them in a scouting report featuring three expert perspectives: Kevin Pelton (analytics), Amin Elhassan (scouting) and Chad Ford (NBA front offices).
[h=4]Andrew Wiggins | 6-8, 200 POUNDS | SHOOTING GUARD | FRESHMAN[/h]
Strengths: Athleticism, defense | Weaknesses: Assist%
WARP projection: 1.5 (23rd among Top 100)
Comparables: Luol Deng (98.2), Tobias Harris (97.5), Maurice Harkless (96.6), Quincy Miller (96.2)
<OFFER></OFFER>
[h=3]The analytics perspective[/h]
Kevin Pelton: As discussed when Chad Ford and I debated Wiggins' NBA potential, his relatively pedestrian advanced statistics don't match his reputation. Wiggins' translated college statistics don't put him in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound wings in any of the nine core skills I evaluate for strengths and weaknesses. At this point, individual defense -- which doesn't show up in the box score -- is probably Wiggins' best skill. That's valuable, but not the stuff of superstardom.
The interesting question is how different Wiggins' impact will be in the NBA game. An open floor will help him take more advantage of his athleticism around the basket. At the same time, he's unlikely to get as many of the transition opportunities that fueled his production at Kansas. According to Synergy Sports, Wiggins shot 62.0 percent in transition as compared to just 41.4 percent in half-court sets.
<CENTER>
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[h=3]The scouting perspective[/h]
Amin Elhassan: Wiggins is a prototypical wing athlete, combining grace and power in a long, lithe body. He jumps well off either one or two feet, but he has much better explosion off two feet. He's got excellent body control and is able to slither and adjust midair to avoid contact. He can finish with either hand but overwhelmingly wants to go right; he can't go left for more than a beat before coming back right or pulling up for the jumper. His handles in general are a little high and loose, so he's not really adept at creating off the dribble if it doesn't come against a hard closeout from the defender. He comes very wide off screens; that attention to detail isn't quite there. He's active on the offensive glass; he'll follow his misses and make the defense pay.
Defensively, he's much more engaged on the ball than he is off it. He uses his length to give himself a cushion, but he's laterally quick enough to play closer if necessary. An underwhelming rebounder considering his physical gifts, Wiggins is a good shot-blocker (perhaps too much for his own good; he'll get beat by his man to recover for the block). He has decent awareness off the ball.
Wiggins' success at the next level will come down to skill development, as he has the physical tools but needs to get sharper. His rough-around-the-edges skill set is holding back his potential.
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[h=3]The NBA front office perspective[/h]Chad Ford: Wiggins began the summer as the consensus No. 1 pick in the draft. Once the season actually started, competition from Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid changed the consensus status. But other than a brief stint when Embiid ascended to the No. 1 spot, Wiggins has been there the entire time.
While scouts and GMs wring their hands over the fact that Wiggins isn't a complete player yet (his jump shot and handle both still need work) and have fretted over his lack of aggressiveness (especially at the beginning of the season), there's a general consensus that has been out there since the beginning that he's still the best long-term prospect in the draft.
He has elite size and elite athletic abilities for his position. He's already a lock-down defender. He's a hard worker and a great teammate. He already possesses a ton of NBA tools and won't have to face zone defenses every night, which should open up the game for him. If he keeps working on his game and stays healthy, there's no reason he can't become a Paul George-like player in the NBA.
While he's not a lock to go No. 1 -- the Jazz, for instance, have Parker ranked ahead of Wiggins -- there is no way Wiggins falls out of the top 3.
