[h=1]Best value, matchup bets at Augusta[/h]Alf Musketa, ESPN Chalk
The key to a successful betting week for the first major of the year could come down to a break in the tee times, which means handicapping the weather. As we recently saw at the Valero Texas Open, any player who started early on Thursday was forced to play in 25-30 mph winds. Most of those golfers surrendered an average of 5.6 strokes to the field versus those who had a much easier time in the afternoon due to less wind.
The early forecast calls for rain each day at Augusta National, with thunderstorms on and off. We've seen this scenario too many times, and didn't cash a ticket due to a break in tee times. Some players may be forced to play in the rain, while others may get a break and play after a storm in soft and benign conditions. It makes for a tricky handicap, and I loathe handicapping the weather, but it will be a big factor this week.
As we have seen on TV and heard from reporters at Augusta National, the golf course is already very green and lush, and with rain most certainly to fall during the tournament, soft conditions will make it play extremely long. Bombers likeBubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and J.B. Holmes should separate themselves from the rest of the field.
We usually fire away at this event and bet more matchups, future book odds, long shots and props than any other major. However, it's important to consider current form. For over 20 years there was just one tournament between theArnold Palmer Invitational and the year's first major. Last year and this year there were two tournaments -- the Valero Texas Open and the Shell Houston Open. Many of the top players would play in Arnie's event, take a week off to rest and prepare for Augusta. Now, looking at a form chart, most of the field and many top players, by the time they tee it up on Thursday won't have played a competitive round in 17 days!
However, the sportsbooks always make mistakes, and we must take advantage of some of the odds and pairings.
Here are my selections for the best value plays at the year's first major:<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Odds courtesy of William Hill and Westgate sportsbooks in Las Vegas.
[h=2]Best values[/h]Jordan Spieth (10-1)
No player has played better tournament golf coming into Augusta than Spieth. You could say he may be tired or may have peaked, but I say he is sharp. With a win and two second-place finishes in the past four weeks (including a playoff loss last week), his short game alone will make him a contender. He finished second last year in his first attempt in this major. He is arguably the best player in the world right now and you should not bet against him.
Rory McIlroy (6-1)
At 6-1 it would appear there is limited value in betting McIlroy to win, and he hasn't exactly set the golfing world ablaze this season. But other than Bubba, there is no player in the field who has the game and the tools required for optimal success at Augusta National. McIlroy is aiming for his first green jacket and the career Grand Slam. He's long off the tee, with a 305.2-yard average, and he hits a draw that's needed on no less than seven holes. And with Tiger back in the field, some pressure is taken off McIlroy. He may not have his A-game, but he still had a top-10 finish at Doral in the WGC Cadillac Championship. If he putts well, he'll win.
J.B. Holmes (40-1)
If you watched the Shell Houston Open last week, Holmes was minus-9 under par in his final round through 12 holes and hit just four fairways. Hitting fairways is not a key to winning at Augusta National, but iron play is, and the short game is a close second. On Sunday at the demanding 18th hole, he drilled three long tee shots in the fairway, two of which were in the playoff. Under pressure, he swung the driver very well, and for the past two months he's been hitting the ball better than everyone except Spieth. Yes, sometimes we don't back a player after he wins an event because he overcelebrates or takes the game for granted and does not practice. I don't think we'll see that with Holmes at this major. I've got a future book odds ticket with Holmes to win in my pocket.
[h=2]Long shots[/h]Ryan Palmer (100-1)
Two weeks ago in San Antonio, I didn't think Palmer was ready to contend at the Valero Texas Open, but he proved me wrong. After skipping Tampa Bay and Arnie's event, he fired the best final round (68) and finished high on the leaderboard at T-6. Prior to that, he was also solid with a T-12 at Doral. For the year he has been consistent, with six top-25 finishes in seven starts. He hits perhaps the best slinging draw on tour and has a T-10 finish at Augusta. I believe in momentum on the PGA Tour, and Palmer is a quiet, under-the-radar golfer who will pass many of the other guys who have taken several weeks off.
Billy Horschel (80-1)
The current FedEx Cup champion is showing signs that his game is rounding into shape. A nice third-place finish at Valero and a minor setup change that made all the difference make this former Florida Gator one to watch and a long-shot contender. His swing looks solid, connected and tight, and his putting stroke is aggressive and charging; he's going for the win. First-time starters at Augusta are a bad investment, as they get caught up in the pomp and circumstance of it all. Horschel had a fine T-37 finish in his debut at Augusta last year, and I expect him to improve on that result this week.
Cameron Tringale (175-1)
Current form is worth more than a "horses for courses" type of player. Tiger Woods -- who has won this tournament four times, has 14 majors and is the best golfer to ever play the game -- would certainly be a horses-for-courses player at Augusta. So would Bubba and Adam Scott, who collectively have won the past three green jackets. But if you haven't participated or aren't playing with good form, the chances that your game will show up on this challenging track are slim. Tringale has played in four of the last five tournaments on Tour, and his worst finish is a T-38. Last week he was sharp (closing with a 68) and he led the field in total putts made and distance, with an astounding 452 feet of putts holed. He has made the cut in eight of nine starts, and it would not surprise me to see his name atop the leaderboard in red figures.
[h=2]Top matchup selections[/h]
Charley Hoffman (-135) over Ernie Els
Els is in the field as a past British Open champion (in 2012). He hasn't won since, and in exactly 50 starts on the PGA Tour from 2013 to the present, he has just four top-10s. His current stats are horrendous -- he ranks 160th in greens in regulation, 194th in driving accuracy, 141st in strokes gained total, 170th in scoring average, and on and on. Last week Els finished 57th in Houston, while Hoffman was T-11, firing a final-round 67 (Els shot a 73). Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Els fan, but since his boating accident wrecked his left knee, it is apparent to me that he cannot get through the golf ball with his full shots as he used to.
Paul Casey (-110) over Hideki Matsuyama
Casey is playing some of his best golf in years. He is sneaky long off the tee and lately has shown a deft touch with the putter. He's sharp and ready to go as we saw with his top-10 finish last week, and his stats showed he hit 81 percent fairways and 77 percent greens. Matsuyama is one of the best players in world, but a nagging wrist injury has kept him off the Tour, and sometimes he withdraws in the middle of a round. It is important to note when betting tournament matchups that the wagering rule is the player to finish with the most holes wins.
Jordan Spieth (-115) over Jason Day
Of course, we are betting on Spieth in matchups. If he straightens out his tee-to-green game just a bit, he'll be in contention come Sunday. Did I mention he's possibly the best player in the world? At 21, he's very hungry, and his putting is off the charts. Day has two top-10s at Augusta in the last four years. He hits the ball very high and has the tools to win here, but he is very streaky and inconsistent. Another aspect of Day's game that we don't like is that he's a poor player in bad weather. The high ball flight is no good there, and he swings too hard for my liking in the wind. He won in February at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he had a lackluster T-31 in the no-cut WGC event and then didn't play last week, so we don't see Day being as good as he can be for this first major.
J.B. Holmes (+110) over Sergio Garcia
We fancied Garcia last year heading into the Masters, but he missed the cut. He has had issues off the tee lately, and his results are T-37 and T-31 in last two starts. Holmes has a win and a second-place finish in those same events, and therefore this matchup should not even be close, in my opinion. This is a no-brainer wager for us, and we strongly believe the sportsbooks have the wrong favorite.
[h=2]Props[/h]Will Tiger Woods make the cut: Yes +100
I don't expect Tiger to play well at all this week. In fact, I'm looking to bet against him in matchups if the price comes down, but the Masters cut is something even Tiger should be able to get through. A couple of years ago, the cut was expanded from 44 and ties to the top 50. Also, any player within 10 shots of the lead makes the cut. The Masters is an invitation, and this year's field is only 98 players. Of that, there are seven amateurs and another 10 older past champions (50 years old and over) who will probably not make the cut. If he gets any break in the weather, Tiger should crack the top 50.
The key to a successful betting week for the first major of the year could come down to a break in the tee times, which means handicapping the weather. As we recently saw at the Valero Texas Open, any player who started early on Thursday was forced to play in 25-30 mph winds. Most of those golfers surrendered an average of 5.6 strokes to the field versus those who had a much easier time in the afternoon due to less wind.
The early forecast calls for rain each day at Augusta National, with thunderstorms on and off. We've seen this scenario too many times, and didn't cash a ticket due to a break in tee times. Some players may be forced to play in the rain, while others may get a break and play after a storm in soft and benign conditions. It makes for a tricky handicap, and I loathe handicapping the weather, but it will be a big factor this week.
As we have seen on TV and heard from reporters at Augusta National, the golf course is already very green and lush, and with rain most certainly to fall during the tournament, soft conditions will make it play extremely long. Bombers likeBubba Watson, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy and J.B. Holmes should separate themselves from the rest of the field.
We usually fire away at this event and bet more matchups, future book odds, long shots and props than any other major. However, it's important to consider current form. For over 20 years there was just one tournament between theArnold Palmer Invitational and the year's first major. Last year and this year there were two tournaments -- the Valero Texas Open and the Shell Houston Open. Many of the top players would play in Arnie's event, take a week off to rest and prepare for Augusta. Now, looking at a form chart, most of the field and many top players, by the time they tee it up on Thursday won't have played a competitive round in 17 days!
However, the sportsbooks always make mistakes, and we must take advantage of some of the odds and pairings.
Here are my selections for the best value plays at the year's first major:<offer style="box-sizing: border-box;"></offer>
Odds courtesy of William Hill and Westgate sportsbooks in Las Vegas.
[h=2]Best values[/h]Jordan Spieth (10-1)
No player has played better tournament golf coming into Augusta than Spieth. You could say he may be tired or may have peaked, but I say he is sharp. With a win and two second-place finishes in the past four weeks (including a playoff loss last week), his short game alone will make him a contender. He finished second last year in his first attempt in this major. He is arguably the best player in the world right now and you should not bet against him.
Rory McIlroy (6-1)
At 6-1 it would appear there is limited value in betting McIlroy to win, and he hasn't exactly set the golfing world ablaze this season. But other than Bubba, there is no player in the field who has the game and the tools required for optimal success at Augusta National. McIlroy is aiming for his first green jacket and the career Grand Slam. He's long off the tee, with a 305.2-yard average, and he hits a draw that's needed on no less than seven holes. And with Tiger back in the field, some pressure is taken off McIlroy. He may not have his A-game, but he still had a top-10 finish at Doral in the WGC Cadillac Championship. If he putts well, he'll win.
J.B. Holmes (40-1)
If you watched the Shell Houston Open last week, Holmes was minus-9 under par in his final round through 12 holes and hit just four fairways. Hitting fairways is not a key to winning at Augusta National, but iron play is, and the short game is a close second. On Sunday at the demanding 18th hole, he drilled three long tee shots in the fairway, two of which were in the playoff. Under pressure, he swung the driver very well, and for the past two months he's been hitting the ball better than everyone except Spieth. Yes, sometimes we don't back a player after he wins an event because he overcelebrates or takes the game for granted and does not practice. I don't think we'll see that with Holmes at this major. I've got a future book odds ticket with Holmes to win in my pocket.
[h=2]Long shots[/h]Ryan Palmer (100-1)
Two weeks ago in San Antonio, I didn't think Palmer was ready to contend at the Valero Texas Open, but he proved me wrong. After skipping Tampa Bay and Arnie's event, he fired the best final round (68) and finished high on the leaderboard at T-6. Prior to that, he was also solid with a T-12 at Doral. For the year he has been consistent, with six top-25 finishes in seven starts. He hits perhaps the best slinging draw on tour and has a T-10 finish at Augusta. I believe in momentum on the PGA Tour, and Palmer is a quiet, under-the-radar golfer who will pass many of the other guys who have taken several weeks off.
Billy Horschel (80-1)
The current FedEx Cup champion is showing signs that his game is rounding into shape. A nice third-place finish at Valero and a minor setup change that made all the difference make this former Florida Gator one to watch and a long-shot contender. His swing looks solid, connected and tight, and his putting stroke is aggressive and charging; he's going for the win. First-time starters at Augusta are a bad investment, as they get caught up in the pomp and circumstance of it all. Horschel had a fine T-37 finish in his debut at Augusta last year, and I expect him to improve on that result this week.
Cameron Tringale (175-1)
Current form is worth more than a "horses for courses" type of player. Tiger Woods -- who has won this tournament four times, has 14 majors and is the best golfer to ever play the game -- would certainly be a horses-for-courses player at Augusta. So would Bubba and Adam Scott, who collectively have won the past three green jackets. But if you haven't participated or aren't playing with good form, the chances that your game will show up on this challenging track are slim. Tringale has played in four of the last five tournaments on Tour, and his worst finish is a T-38. Last week he was sharp (closing with a 68) and he led the field in total putts made and distance, with an astounding 452 feet of putts holed. He has made the cut in eight of nine starts, and it would not surprise me to see his name atop the leaderboard in red figures.
[h=2]Top matchup selections[/h]
Charley Hoffman (-135) over Ernie Els
Els is in the field as a past British Open champion (in 2012). He hasn't won since, and in exactly 50 starts on the PGA Tour from 2013 to the present, he has just four top-10s. His current stats are horrendous -- he ranks 160th in greens in regulation, 194th in driving accuracy, 141st in strokes gained total, 170th in scoring average, and on and on. Last week Els finished 57th in Houston, while Hoffman was T-11, firing a final-round 67 (Els shot a 73). Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Els fan, but since his boating accident wrecked his left knee, it is apparent to me that he cannot get through the golf ball with his full shots as he used to.
Paul Casey (-110) over Hideki Matsuyama
Casey is playing some of his best golf in years. He is sneaky long off the tee and lately has shown a deft touch with the putter. He's sharp and ready to go as we saw with his top-10 finish last week, and his stats showed he hit 81 percent fairways and 77 percent greens. Matsuyama is one of the best players in world, but a nagging wrist injury has kept him off the Tour, and sometimes he withdraws in the middle of a round. It is important to note when betting tournament matchups that the wagering rule is the player to finish with the most holes wins.
Jordan Spieth (-115) over Jason Day
Of course, we are betting on Spieth in matchups. If he straightens out his tee-to-green game just a bit, he'll be in contention come Sunday. Did I mention he's possibly the best player in the world? At 21, he's very hungry, and his putting is off the charts. Day has two top-10s at Augusta in the last four years. He hits the ball very high and has the tools to win here, but he is very streaky and inconsistent. Another aspect of Day's game that we don't like is that he's a poor player in bad weather. The high ball flight is no good there, and he swings too hard for my liking in the wind. He won in February at the Farmers Insurance Open, but he had a lackluster T-31 in the no-cut WGC event and then didn't play last week, so we don't see Day being as good as he can be for this first major.
J.B. Holmes (+110) over Sergio Garcia
We fancied Garcia last year heading into the Masters, but he missed the cut. He has had issues off the tee lately, and his results are T-37 and T-31 in last two starts. Holmes has a win and a second-place finish in those same events, and therefore this matchup should not even be close, in my opinion. This is a no-brainer wager for us, and we strongly believe the sportsbooks have the wrong favorite.
[h=2]Props[/h]Will Tiger Woods make the cut: Yes +100
I don't expect Tiger to play well at all this week. In fact, I'm looking to bet against him in matchups if the price comes down, but the Masters cut is something even Tiger should be able to get through. A couple of years ago, the cut was expanded from 44 and ties to the top 50. Also, any player within 10 shots of the lead makes the cut. The Masters is an invitation, and this year's field is only 98 players. Of that, there are seven amateurs and another 10 older past champions (50 years old and over) who will probably not make the cut. If he gets any break in the weather, Tiger should crack the top 50.
