If you read the headline, you will say: “does he really think the Chargers are going to win it all?”. I think the Chargers have a shot, but I locked this one in because of value. This is more about an investment than a prediction. They are going into this season as the most underrated team and the value in the line is tremendous. You can and will hedge out later. When predicting the future, there are always a lot of IFs. But I did my homework and I got a really strong read: IF Philip Rivers stays healthy, the Chargers are going to the playoffs and will likely win the AFC West.
The Chargers went 4-12, but they weren’t a 4-12 team on paper. 9 of their 11 starters on offense missed more than 50% of the snaps in 2015. When I remember right, the Chargers were without their five OL starters at home against the Chiefs. Melvin Gordon had no shot at running behind this line. How can Rivers run this offense if it’s completely decimated and his OC keeps calling stubborn plays?
During the off-season, San Diego did a great job surrounding Rivers with the pieces this offense needs to succeed. They grabbed speedy Travis Benjamin to finally have a guy who can stretch the field. They drafted TE Hunter Henry out of Arkansas. Henry is a great route runner who will cause havoc on routes against LBs. Hunter has great hands, dropped only two passes during the last two seasons. He and Gates fill out the position very well.
They got one of the best centers in Matt Slauson from Chicago who replaces Trevor Robinson, who replaced Chris Watt last season and played 89% of the snaps. Robinson was one of the worst centers in the league. Slauson – originally a guard – played the C position phenomenal in 2015 and is a massive upgrade for Rivers. Then GM Tom Telesco drafted C Max Tuerk (USC) in the 3rd round. Tuerk is coming off an ACL injury but he got freakish athleticism. Prior to his injury, he gave up only one pressure on 145 pass block snaps in 2015. At USC, he played C, G and also T. His best fit is on the interior though. He is expected to get ready for the season so I expect him to play either G next to Slauson at C or vice versa. But what we can say for sure: this offensive line will be completely revamped from what the Chargers had last season.
I think the most overlooked guy is who Telesco took in the 6th round: FB Derek Watt, brother of older JJ. Derek Watt was one of the keys for Melvin Gordon to succeed at Wisconsin. He is going to open up some lanes next season. He also had 13 receptions for 139 yards in 2015.
With the offensive personnel, the Chargers are able to attack opposing defenses at every inch of the field. But another big reason to be excited about this offense is Ken Whisenhunt, who was signed as their offensive coordinator. He was the Chargers’ OC in 2013, the year the Chargers finished 2nd in NYPPA (7.5) and 2nd in pass DVOA (52.5%). During the last 10 years, the pass DVOA number of 50% was crossed only 13 times. In 2013, the Chargers made the playoffs. That year was also Rivers’ best season as a Charger with a completion percentage of 69.5% and a TD-INT ratio of 32-11. The passing game will get a huge boost and now they can also run the ball. They will play a possession kind of offense. Feed Gordon and open up space for this dangerous QB-WR-TE connection. Per definition, this is a top-5 offense and they might compete for the best in the league.
The Chargers’ defense was a huge concern, but down the stretch in 2015 they heated up. Denzel Perryman was a force on ILB against the run. They added Brendon Mebane at NT who is an upgrade and Corey Liuget and Joey Bosa – their 3rd overall pick – will work on the two other interior spots. I really believe Bosa can play 3-4 end. But I also expect the Chargers to get creative at times. Melvin Ingram took a huge step forward, established himself as a good pass rusher and even Jerry Attoucho showed some flashes, being more effective against the run.
The safety position is questionable, but Dwight Lowery brings a lot of leadership and experience. And maybe he will look much better when playing next to more quality than he was surrounded by in Indy. The CB position is superior. Jason Verrett is probably the best cover corner in the league, Casey Hayward (from GB) probably was the best nickel corner last season. But he can also play on the outside where aging and declining Brandon Flowers needs to regain his momentum. Overall, this is a pretty solid defense that will benefit from great coverage by Hayward and Verrett.
They went 0-6 within the division, because they had tremendous matchup problems. Their OL got blasted by the Broncos and Chiefs and they couldn’t get any pressure on the Raiders. Defensively, the first Raiders game was a very poor one by the Chargers. This will change this season. The Chiefs defense took a step back, missing Sean Smith and Justin Houston for a fair share of the season. He will definitely miss the opener. Mike DeVito is also not playing. The Chargers have much improved matchups on both sides of the ball. Look for an upset in week one! Same with the Broncos. The Chargers already forced OT at Oakland in week 16 and they should atleast split the series. I expect them to not go worse than 4-2 within the division.
Their schedule is probably the easiest one in the league. They face the two worst divisions of both conferences, the AFC South and the NFC South. Within the AFC they got games against the Browns and Dolphins. They only have one road trip with b2b road games in weeks 7 and 8 at Atlanta and Denver. Prior to that they have a TNF game so they got 10 days off before they start traveling. The Broncos will have a short week before that game.
Regression: The Chargers finished 27th in FO’s “adjusted games lost” category. 88.5 games were missed due to injuries. That has to change next season. They also went 3-9 in close games. This is another statistical category that showed regression over the years.
Prediction: I really think the Chargers will win 11+ games this season and they are definitely going to make the playoffs. I will add more futures on the division title and playoffs as the training camp goes on. Don’t wanna have more than one future on one team too early. If the Chargers make the playoffs as I really believe they will, the 80-1 ticket is completely money and you can easily hedge out a decent return.
San Diego Chargers to win SB51 +8000
The Chargers went 4-12, but they weren’t a 4-12 team on paper. 9 of their 11 starters on offense missed more than 50% of the snaps in 2015. When I remember right, the Chargers were without their five OL starters at home against the Chiefs. Melvin Gordon had no shot at running behind this line. How can Rivers run this offense if it’s completely decimated and his OC keeps calling stubborn plays?
During the off-season, San Diego did a great job surrounding Rivers with the pieces this offense needs to succeed. They grabbed speedy Travis Benjamin to finally have a guy who can stretch the field. They drafted TE Hunter Henry out of Arkansas. Henry is a great route runner who will cause havoc on routes against LBs. Hunter has great hands, dropped only two passes during the last two seasons. He and Gates fill out the position very well.
They got one of the best centers in Matt Slauson from Chicago who replaces Trevor Robinson, who replaced Chris Watt last season and played 89% of the snaps. Robinson was one of the worst centers in the league. Slauson – originally a guard – played the C position phenomenal in 2015 and is a massive upgrade for Rivers. Then GM Tom Telesco drafted C Max Tuerk (USC) in the 3rd round. Tuerk is coming off an ACL injury but he got freakish athleticism. Prior to his injury, he gave up only one pressure on 145 pass block snaps in 2015. At USC, he played C, G and also T. His best fit is on the interior though. He is expected to get ready for the season so I expect him to play either G next to Slauson at C or vice versa. But what we can say for sure: this offensive line will be completely revamped from what the Chargers had last season.
I think the most overlooked guy is who Telesco took in the 6th round: FB Derek Watt, brother of older JJ. Derek Watt was one of the keys for Melvin Gordon to succeed at Wisconsin. He is going to open up some lanes next season. He also had 13 receptions for 139 yards in 2015.
With the offensive personnel, the Chargers are able to attack opposing defenses at every inch of the field. But another big reason to be excited about this offense is Ken Whisenhunt, who was signed as their offensive coordinator. He was the Chargers’ OC in 2013, the year the Chargers finished 2nd in NYPPA (7.5) and 2nd in pass DVOA (52.5%). During the last 10 years, the pass DVOA number of 50% was crossed only 13 times. In 2013, the Chargers made the playoffs. That year was also Rivers’ best season as a Charger with a completion percentage of 69.5% and a TD-INT ratio of 32-11. The passing game will get a huge boost and now they can also run the ball. They will play a possession kind of offense. Feed Gordon and open up space for this dangerous QB-WR-TE connection. Per definition, this is a top-5 offense and they might compete for the best in the league.
The Chargers’ defense was a huge concern, but down the stretch in 2015 they heated up. Denzel Perryman was a force on ILB against the run. They added Brendon Mebane at NT who is an upgrade and Corey Liuget and Joey Bosa – their 3rd overall pick – will work on the two other interior spots. I really believe Bosa can play 3-4 end. But I also expect the Chargers to get creative at times. Melvin Ingram took a huge step forward, established himself as a good pass rusher and even Jerry Attoucho showed some flashes, being more effective against the run.
The safety position is questionable, but Dwight Lowery brings a lot of leadership and experience. And maybe he will look much better when playing next to more quality than he was surrounded by in Indy. The CB position is superior. Jason Verrett is probably the best cover corner in the league, Casey Hayward (from GB) probably was the best nickel corner last season. But he can also play on the outside where aging and declining Brandon Flowers needs to regain his momentum. Overall, this is a pretty solid defense that will benefit from great coverage by Hayward and Verrett.
They went 0-6 within the division, because they had tremendous matchup problems. Their OL got blasted by the Broncos and Chiefs and they couldn’t get any pressure on the Raiders. Defensively, the first Raiders game was a very poor one by the Chargers. This will change this season. The Chiefs defense took a step back, missing Sean Smith and Justin Houston for a fair share of the season. He will definitely miss the opener. Mike DeVito is also not playing. The Chargers have much improved matchups on both sides of the ball. Look for an upset in week one! Same with the Broncos. The Chargers already forced OT at Oakland in week 16 and they should atleast split the series. I expect them to not go worse than 4-2 within the division.
Their schedule is probably the easiest one in the league. They face the two worst divisions of both conferences, the AFC South and the NFC South. Within the AFC they got games against the Browns and Dolphins. They only have one road trip with b2b road games in weeks 7 and 8 at Atlanta and Denver. Prior to that they have a TNF game so they got 10 days off before they start traveling. The Broncos will have a short week before that game.
Regression: The Chargers finished 27th in FO’s “adjusted games lost” category. 88.5 games were missed due to injuries. That has to change next season. They also went 3-9 in close games. This is another statistical category that showed regression over the years.
Prediction: I really think the Chargers will win 11+ games this season and they are definitely going to make the playoffs. I will add more futures on the division title and playoffs as the training camp goes on. Don’t wanna have more than one future on one team too early. If the Chargers make the playoffs as I really believe they will, the 80-1 ticket is completely money and you can easily hedge out a decent return.
San Diego Chargers to win SB51 +8000
