Analysis for today

[GordonGekko]

Looking to Play the Yankees while their hitting and only paying 128 for Burnett who's been impressive last 3 starts. Perkins hasn't fared well vs Yankees bats.

Looking at Cincinatti, but not sure if I'm interested in backing Homer..Pitched well last time out but can he duplicate again. I have no idea how Rodrigo Lopez is this big of a favorite. Philadelphia hasn't played well in last 30 or so and it seems as if Dusty always has the Reds in the game.

San Francisco- Sadowski looks legit and without a 100% Hanley the Marlins should be silent.

Maybe Pittsburgh as Wandy has come back to life after a strong start. His last 7 haven't been strong and Pitt hitters have hit him well.

Others that I am thinking:

Toronto at plus money. Kazmir hasn't been good at home all year.
Why not play the Dodgers? The Mets haven't played well defensively, offensively and need an absolut strong start out of Oliver Perez who comes off the DL.

Thoughts?

 

[jbragg10]

Like the Yanks
No opinion on Reds/Phillies
Love the Giants
Like the Pirates
No opinion on Rays/Jays
Lean towards Dodgers

 

[buffettgambler]

As stated yesterday, oddsmakers have been setting Yankees lines a bit too low, and I have had no problem backing this team of late. That said, with the way Burnett has been pitching of late, this is one pitcher that oddsmakers will not leave any excess value on the table for. This line seems currently efficiently priced, but if the line drops a bit, and I can pick up the Yankess in the low -120’s, I will gladly back them again.
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The Reds were undervalued yesterday, and are undervalued again today. I bought them last night with an average lay of +147. The market agrees with me that a little oddsmakers don’t know where to price Lopez, and they gave him a bit too much respect here. With the drop in price, I will be looking to sell out of some of my Reds position, but will probably have a net long position on them by first pitch. The market picked off most of the excess value on them, but in my opinion, there is still some left at the current price.
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My biggest bet last night on the overnights was the Marlins +122. The market is repeating what they did yesterday morning by buying into Hanley’s possibility of play, and have bout the Marlins down over 20% since the open. If Hanley plays, even at the current market price, they are cheap (but I will still arb out of a good portion of my original position). If he doesn’t play, the line seems fairly set (and I will be quick to arb out of all of my position). Sadowksi’s current form is not sustainable, nor is the Giants team as a whole. The market is telling oddsmakers this team is accomplishing a lot with smoke and mirrors, and the oddsmakers are giving them a bit too much credit.
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I bought into the Astros last night at -158, and it looks like I may beat the closing number in this one too. I don’t mind backing Rodgriguez at home when he is out of favor. A lot of secondary stats show his uptick is worth more than what appears on the table, including his well hit ball ratio and decrease in line drives allowed. Last time he faced the Pirates, he was right in the middle of his pitching issues and downtick. Morton is not an innings eater, and I like the idea of having a crack at the underbelly of the Pirates pen.
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I bought the Rays at -140 last night (which again appears to be their low). I will hedge out some of my position, especially if the line continues to climb, as I don’t want a heavily outstanding position on a pitcher with a lot of question marks. But oddsmakers are setting him too low. Tallet has not looked good of late, and for a pitcher that is 31 and has never thrown more than 70 innings in one season, eclipsing the 100 inning market prior to the All Star game may be taking a toll on his arm.
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The Mets line seems well set, and the market seems to agree.
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Best of luck.

 

[GordonGekko]

Buffett,

I agree with you on the Reds and with a price of 147 it looks promising. Bought in at +136.

Do you feel Astros at -170 would still make a play?

I'm also noticing Arizona is almost down 10% across the board, do you feel it's due to Gaudin recent success?

I'm also looking into the over of Angels/Texas? These are both good hitting teams and with Hamilton back adds another dimension to a formidable lineup. Angels have everyone in lineup and this makes it tough for opposing pitchers including a Padilla who I feel will regress sooner than later. Santana has been ok. I played the number at 10 EVEN...

I'm surprised that you feel the Met line was priced efficiently. I had them as +140 in this game. Is market perception overpricing Kuroda on the road? Perez off the DL against a red hot Dodger team. I'm disappointed I haven't made enough money on the dodgers this year.

Always a pleasure,

GEKKO

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Good thread. I like the idea of having detailed discussions of all the games where we think what teams are getting valued or being overpriced.

Does anyone know if Oliver Perez will be a on a pitch count today?

 

[buffettgambler]

Buffett,

I agree with you on the Reds and with a price of 147 it looks promising. Bought in at +136.

Do you feel Astros at -170 would still make a play?

I'm also noticing Arizona is almost down 10% across the board, do you feel it's due to Gaudin recent success?

I'm also looking into the over of Angels/Texas? These are both good hitting teams and with Hamilton back adds another dimension to a formidable lineup. Angels have everyone in lineup and this makes it tough for opposing pitchers including a Padilla who I feel will regress sooner than later. Santana has been ok. I played the number at 10 EVEN...

I'm surprised that you feel the Met line was priced efficiently. I had them as +140 in this game. Is market perception overpricing Kuroda on the road? Perez off the DL against a red hot Dodger team. I'm disappointed I haven't made enough money on the dodgers this year.

Always a pleasure,

GEKKO

I bumped up the Astros intrinsic value another 6 cents with the lineup card information. I currerntly have them valued at -186, so I think they still carry some value.

I am not sure why the market is electing to bid down the Dbacks price, especially against an out of favor team and with them putting up four straight wins. I feel the oddmakers may have priced them about 5 cents too high, and the market pendulem is pricing them about 5-10 cents too low. Guadin allowed 12 baserunners in 5 innings last time out, and has faced the DBacks three times already this season, a huge plus for a young lineup and a big disadvantage for a pitcher that lacks overpowering stuff. If the market is bidding them down because of Gaudin, they apparently see something I do not. Pena's departure devalues a depreciating DBacks bullpen, but clearly not material enough to account for most of the line move.

I don't play totals, so I don't really have an opinion on the current O/U price. What I am noticing with the Angels money line is that the market is really bearish on Santana, and are pricing in only a small probability for a turnaround. The correlation of the market being bearish on a pitcher on the money line is very high on the total, so if this correlation holds true in this game, you may be betting a pricey line.


The Mets lineup is bad and their underbelly of their bullpen is no longer a strength. Combining this with Perez's risks, his high propenisty of not being able to eat up innings in this game, and his bouts of wildness being up against a tight strike zone in Bell and a patient lineup in the Dodgers, and there is not much to like with the Mets, even at this price.

I am dissapointed I have not made more money on the Dodgers this year as well. I have a large future position on their Over win total that is sitting pretty, and I have had a very bullish valuation on them throughout the season. However, the market was quick to correct their underestimation of them heading into the season, and I currently stand at a 1.07 "bet on" to "bet against" ratio on them, which I thought would have been a lot higher based on how the market perception of the team was early in the season.

 

[buffettgambler]

Good thread. I like the idea of having detailed discussions of all the games where we think what teams are getting valued or being overpriced.

Does anyone know if Oliver Perez will be a on a pitch count today?

They say he will likely be on a 100 pitch count. He struggled with his control during his rehab stint as well, and was unable to make it past five innings in any of his four starts. Allowing 28 baserunners in 17 rehab innings, is a sign that he may not make it past five today either.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I bumped up the Astros intrinsic value another 6 cents with the lineup card information. I currerntly have them valued at -186, so I think they still carry some value.

I am not sure why the market is electing to bid down the Dbacks price, especially against an out of favor team and with them putting up four straight wins. I feel the oddmakers may have priced them about 5 cents too high, and the market pendulem is pricing them about 5-10 cents too low. Guadin allowed 12 baserunners in 5 innings last time out, and has faced the DBacks three times already this season, a huge plus for a young lineup and a big disadvantage for a pitcher that lacks overpowering stuff. If the market is bidding them down because of Gaudin, they apparently see something I do not. Pena's departure devalues a depreciating DBacks bullpen, but clearly not material enough to account for most of the line move.

I don't play totals, so I don't really have an opinion on the current O/U price. What I am noticing with the Angels money line is that the market is really bearish on Santana, and are pricing in only a small probability for a turnaround. The correlation of the market being bearish on a pitcher on the money line is very high on the total, so if this correlation holds true in this game, you may be betting a pricey line.


The Mets lineup is bad and their underbelly of their bullpen is no longer a strength. Combining this with Perez's risks, his high propenisty of not being able to eat up innings in this game, and his bouts of wildness being up against a tight strike zone in Bell and a patient lineup in the Dodgers, and there is not much to like with the Mets, even at this price.

I am dissapointed I have not made more money on the Dodgers this year as well. I have a large future position on their Over win total that is sitting pretty, and I have had a very bullish valuation on them throughout the season. However, the market was quick to correct their underestimation of them heading into the season, and I currently stand at a 1.07 "bet on" to "bet against" ratio on them, which I thought would have been a lot higher based on how the market perception of the team was early in the season.

How do you rank and what kind of variables, intangibles, fundamentals to justify how many cents is off a line?

 

[buffettgambler]

How do you rank and what kind of variables, intangibles, fundamentals to justify how many cents is off a line?

It is more of a weighted average quantitative system rather than a ranking system, with the weightings of variables being what I deem commensurate to the influence each have on the outcome of the game.

 

[GordonGekko]

I bumped up the Astros intrinsic value another 6 cents with the lineup card information. I currerntly have them valued at -186, so I think they still carry some value.

I am not sure why the market is electing to bid down the Dbacks price, especially against an out of favor team and with them putting up four straight wins. I feel the oddmakers may have priced them about 5 cents too high, and the market pendulem is pricing them about 5-10 cents too low. Guadin allowed 12 baserunners in 5 innings last time out, and has faced the DBacks three times already this season, a huge plus for a young lineup and a big disadvantage for a pitcher that lacks overpowering stuff. If the market is bidding them down because of Gaudin, they apparently see something I do not. Pena's departure devalues a depreciating DBacks bullpen, but clearly not material enough to account for most of the line move.

I don't play totals, so I don't really have an opinion on the current O/U price. What I am noticing with the Angels money line is that the market is really bearish on Santana, and are pricing in only a small probability for a turnaround. The correlation of the market being bearish on a pitcher on the money line is very high on the total, so if this correlation holds true in this game, you may be betting a pricey line.


The Mets lineup is bad and their underbelly of their bullpen is no longer a strength. Combining this with Perez's risks, his high propenisty of not being able to eat up innings in this game, and his bouts of wildness being up against a tight strike zone in Bell and a patient lineup in the Dodgers, and there is not much to like with the Mets, even at this price.

I am dissapointed I have not made more money on the Dodgers this year as well. I have a large future position on their Over win total that is sitting pretty, and I have had a very bullish valuation on them throughout the season. However, the market was quick to correct their underestimation of them heading into the season, and I currently stand at a 1.07 "bet on" to "bet against" ratio on them, which I thought would have been a lot higher based on how the market perception of the team was early in the season.

I can't understand DBACKs line at the moment but searching for reasons.

Santana absolutely is in a decline stage of betting, especially against a good Texas team. I'm hoping the trend continues and he doesn't find success, at least for tonight.

That's very nice you had the Dodgers. I have them at a quiet price to win the WEST and NL Championship. Losing to the Red Sox in the World Series.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

In my opinion the Nationals hold a little bit of value, their defense and offense has gotten a upgrade with the speedy Nyjer Morgan. They've showed production at the plate lately, but their situational hitting in this series hasn't been there.

Everyone knows Ross Detwiler has been awful and that is factored in the line already. He has some things going for him today though, his ground ball to fly out ratio is solid, and most of the Rockies power hitters come from the left side.

Jorge De La Rosa holds a 6.49 ERA at home with a losing record this season and seems to be getting toio much respect.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

It is more of a weighted average quantitative system rather than a ranking system, with the weightings of variables being what I deem commensurate to the influence each have on the outcome of the game.

If you don't mind, can you give some examples how this works? Would love to learn about this, sounds very interesting.

 

[buffettgambler]

I can't understand DBACKs line at the moment but searching for reasons.

Santana absolutely is in a decline stage of betting, especially against a good Texas team. I'm hoping the trend continues and he doesn't find success, at least for tonight.

That's very nice you had the Dodgers. I have them at a quiet price to win the WEST and NL Championship. Losing to the Red Sox in the World Series.

If I deemed the Dbacks undervalued on the open, and the line has moved in the manner it has, I would be a bit perplexed, and somewhat concerned, as one should respect the market. However, they were a bit overvalued on the onset. This coupled with a high valuation error risk with both starting pitchers and lineups, and the expecting a tight line on the close is probably expecting too much. The DBacks are coming full strength with the lineup they put forth. The Padres have not. If the line drops three more cents, I will enter a small position on the DBacks.

I also have an Under position on the Giants win total. That bet appears to wash out the Dodgers bet. I would be happy with your Dodgers future bet.

 

[buffettgambler]

In my opinion the Nationals hold a little bit of value, their defense and offense has gotten a upgrade with the speedy Nyjer Morgan. They've showed production at the plate lately, but their situational hitting in this series hasn't been there.

Everyone knows Ross Detwiler has been awful and that is factored in the line already. He has some things going for him today though, his ground ball to fly out ratio is solid, and most of the Rockies power hitters come from the left side.

Jorge De La Rosa holds a 6.49 ERA at home with a losing record this season and seems to be getting toio much respect.

I agree with the notion the Nationals hold a little bit of value here. Both teams are coming with lineups far below top worth, but the net disparity is a wash.

I found value on the Rockies last night, but value with the Nationals today. It appears to be a starting pithcer thing when spotting value when these two teams face.
Morgan adds value in the field, but not at the plate in my opinion.

Best of luck.

 

[GordonGekko]

In my opinion the Nationals hold a little bit of value, their defense and offense has gotten a upgrade with the speedy Nyjer Morgan. They've showed production at the plate lately, but their situational hitting in this series hasn't been there.

Everyone knows Ross Detwiler has been awful and that is factored in the line already. He has some things going for him today though, his ground ball to fly out ratio is solid, and most of the Rockies power hitters come from the left side.

Jorge De La Rosa holds a 6.49 ERA at home with a losing record this season and seems to be getting toio much respect.

I agree with buffett as well and looked at a decrease in value when the lineup was set. No Johnson at 1B and no Harris at 2b who has hit de la Rosa (.600) throughout his career. Why? Do they enjoy losing? I know players need days off. interesting.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I agree with the notion the Nationals hold a little bit of value here. Both teams are coming with lineups far below top worth, but the net disparity is a wash.

I found value on the Rockies last night, but value with the Nationals today. It appears to be a starting pithcer thing when spotting value when these two teams face.
Morgan adds value in the field, but not at the plate in my opinion.

Best of luck.

Yeah, not so much with him at the plate only if he gets on since hes is threat with the stolen base or a ball hit in the gap to score from 1st.

Also Colorado's first time seeing Detwiler. A few hitters have success vs. De La Rosa, but this is only a small sample size, 5 at bats and 11 for Dunn. Which these two things shouldn't be taken as much as a factor, but may come true to be an advantage.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Wow. Diamondbacks line has dropped almost 20 cents. If you can get it at -150 then don't you think they're worth it at that price?

 

[GordonGekko]

Hunger,

Looking at lineup for both teams: AZ hits Gaudin at 219 clip or (7 for 32) while SD hits Sherzer at .286 clip (4 for 14). Obviously this isn't enough data to draw a conclusion.

GAUDIN vs AZ stats: 12.1 IP 14 K, 10 BB, 12 ER

Maybe Rauch and Schoeneweis both not available.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Hunger,

Looking at lineup for both teams: AZ hits Gaudin at 219 clip or (7 for 32) while SD hits Sherzer at .286 clip (4 for 14). Obviously this isn't enough data to draw a conclusion.

GAUDIN vs AZ stats: 12.1 IP 14 K, 10 BB, 12 ER

Maybe Rauch and Schoeneweis both not available.

You may be right. Scott Schoeneweis has pitched four straight games, probably very unlikely to throw. Jon Rauch being three staight, along with this being a day game.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

I agree with buffett as well and looked at a decrease in value when the lineup was set. No Johnson at 1B and no Harris at 2b who has hit de la Rosa (.600) throughout his career. Why? Do they enjoy losing? I know players need days off. interesting.

Hopefully you stuck to your reasoning in decrease in value with Nick Johnson, Harris and Guzman not in the lineup.