Am I the only one who thinks Florian's got a shot?

[HansGruber]

I took a flyer on him at +298. Sherk is a beast but I can't stand these ground and pound wrestlers. They're boring to watch and have minimal technique compared to the more well-rounded fighters.

I don't think I'm just throwing the money away though. Florian is a better striker standing and he will have a decent reach advantage. On the ground Florian is a BJJ black belt and could easily catch Sherk like he has his last two opponents. Sherk on the other hand, has lost two of his last 3 fights and his most recent bout against Nick Diaz went the distance. Diaz and KFlo are the same type of fighters: primarily BJJ with solid striking ability. Sherk won it, but wasn't dominating.

Sherk is the favorite for good reason though. His 2 losses were to 2 of the best fighters in the world, Hughes, and GSP. I just think there's real value at 3-1. GL and enjoy the fights.

 

[HansGruber]

Couple other "live dogs" from friends who follow MMA WAY more than me:

- Justin James

- Hironaka

Both are about 3-1. Use at your own discretion.

 

[HoosierDaddy]

I'm looking at Florian myself. Tough to go against Sherk, but I may take a shot with KenFlo. Not saying these fights are fixed, but keep in mind that KenFlo was on Season 1 of the Ultimate Fighter and Dana and the Zuffa brass want these guys from this show to become legit so that the hardcore MMA fans can't bash them for this show.

Flo is also a Boston guy, which is a market that UFC wants to run a show for in 2007.

HD

 

[HansGruber]

Love the conspiracy theory. Again, I think the right guy is favored UI just think there's value in that dog.

Really tempted by Silva too. Franklin is awesome, but there are serious questionsa bout his chin.

 

[montecristo]

Florian?

If you ask me the money you're wagering on KenFlo is "dead money". Joey Oddessa and Tony Sands didn't set the opening line at Sherk -475 Florian +425 for nothing. They want to attract that sucker money of Ken Flo. It would be in the UFC's best interest for Ken Flo to win without question. Dana White is from Boston and so is Flo. Flo was on the ultimate fighter, so he is familiar to the average mma fan, plus Sherk's decision style doesn't win him any fans.
Sherk also hasn't been that active in the last couple of years. The line has moved considerably, so Pinnacle is going to take a bath if Kenny wins. These guys spend a lot of time making these mma lines. They are not as soft as they used to be. Oddessa has a network of help, and ears and eyes in the big camps.
How does Ken Flo win? Is he going to beat him standing I don't think so. Sherk has been fighting better stand up guys for years, and his boxing is good ask Nick Diaz whose is a better striker than KenFlo hands down. Is he going to submit him? That hasn't happened in Sherk's career. Maybe he can cut him. He doesn't have better stamina and he will not win a decision ever!! This fight is scheduled for five rounds.
Also Ken Flo backed out in August against Sherk due to a "back injury". Mentally you have to wonder. He said he wasn't ready and needed more time. Maybe so who knows. But facts are facts. Sherk took Matt Hughes five rounds!!! He got crushed by St. Pierre after a long layoff, so what?? Will cutting weight to 155 make him weaker and tired easily? That is a possibility, but it is unlikely. Wrestlers cut weight better than anyone and this guy is taking this very serious he is super hungry. We'll see but I doubt Flo wins. It would be a huge upset in my book.

 

[HansGruber]

Can't argue with any of your points Montecristo. On paper, Sherk should win. I just have not been impressed with Sherk lately and I have been impressed with Florian. Granted there's a huge "Quality of opponent" differential in their recent fights, but you can only beat the man standing in front of you. Small play for me, so it's worth playing the hunch.

GL w. your picks.