Alternate Run Lines - Visiting Dogs.

[wilheim]

Despite the 20 cent juice, I like to look for alt. run line visiting dogs laying 1.5 runs getting heavy plus money. One obvious benefit is a guaranteed 9 at bats with a visitor, the other is the substantial payback for a winning bet. Take Montreal vs.Florida tonight, the Expos are -1.5 +248 (Ohka-Willis) on the alt-line, and +151 on the normal ML. Natrually if the Marlins win it does not matter which bet was made on the Expos. With the Expos winning there is a 97 cent difference gained at the risk of losing if the Expos only win by one run. Does anyone feel there is merit to this type of betting, or is it just another bad bet?


wil.

 

[Matt24]

Made a lot of money doing this last yaer, hit plenty of +500 dogs. If I would have just done this, it would have been a great year in baseball.

 

[wilheim]

Friday - Alt-runline game: Blue Jays -1.5 +228 vs. Red Sox Arroyo/Lilly. ML line Blue Jays +135 - 93 cent difference.


wil.

 

[RobFunk]

"...Blue Jays -1.5 +228 vs. Red Sox Arroyo/Lilly..."

Just saw on the 12 o'clock news the sox did not arrive in boston until 7:45 AM. apparently the plane they had originally borded had some type of malfucntion. they then had to transport all their equipment into a different plane before finnaly leaving. all this after playing a 13 inning game. they are going to be tired as S**T!!

 

[RobFunk]

1 added note: arroyo, the starting pitcher for the sox did not endure this debacle, in fact he was not even with the team when it happened. he was back in boston preparing for today's game.

 

[GreenDoberman]

I haven't looked up his stats since I'm laying off first two starts, but isn't Arroyo pretty mediocre? I mean is he really 55 points better than Lilly, and is the home field that big an advantage for the Sox. The Jays have some pop in their lineup (if their guys start hitting, esp. V. Wells), and right now it is the equal of BoSox hitting with Ramon backwards and Trotter out.

 

[wilheim]

Blue Jays win, 10-5 final. Plus 228.


wil.

 

[wilheim]

Saturday's Alt-run line play. White Sox -1.5 +233 Vs. Yankees - Buehrle/Depaula - ML Sox +153 - 80 cent difference.


wil.

 

[randyrohm]

What is the cents diff that you should pull the trigger on these bets. They are dogs for a reason but with the good payoff you should make a profitt if you play teams that can score runs. I would guess 75 cents.

 

[wilheim]

Randy - In the past I have looked for at least 80 cents. That is a random figure, and there is no statistical evidence that I know of that says 75 or even 70 cent differences are not worth a look. I look for games where a high number of runs is anticipated, obviously the AL offers more opportunities. I was looking at the Rockies tomorrow with an 89 cent difference, but with a total of 7.5 I decided to lay off. The Sox-Yanks total is 10 flat.


wil.

 

[wilheim]

7-3 White Sox - plus 233. YTD. 2-0 plus 461.

wil.

 

[wilheim]

Sunday's Alternate-RunLine play at Pinnacle.

Toronto -1.5 +295 Batista/Schilling. ML Toronto +202 - 93 cent difference. (risk 1 unit)

ytd. 2-0 - plus 461 (risking 1 unit per play).

wil.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Here's one for you.

Chi WS -1.5 +300 over Yanks, Wright/Mussina, ML ChWS +199 - 101 cents difference.

Mussina has been rocked in his 1st 2 games.

 

[wilheim]

Big games I thought about the Yanks/White Sox game but settled on the Blue Jays. Anyway Yanks win 5-4 and Red Sox win 6-4 in 12 innings. Blue Jays led 4-2 in the 8th. and had a couple of chances for rallies in extra innings, but could not get the job done. -100 (1 unit). YTD 2-1 plus 361.


wil.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

wil:

I still say they were both good bets. Mussina gave up 3 in the 1st inning giving the Sox a chance and like you said Toronto had chances for rallies.

At these prices, one only needs to win one game in four to break even.

 

[wilheim]

Big Games, very good point, I liked them both, but settled on the one.
Monday - No selection.


Tuesday April 13th.

Baltimore -1.5 +280, over Boston Ainsworth/Lowe. Money Line +191, 89 cent difference. Total 10 flat. 1 unit.

YTD. 2-1 plus 361.

BOL. wil.

 

[BSK]

Wil-

newbie question - why just road dogs?

in any case, it seems like these opportunities are everywhere. I saw more than a couple for tomorrow - any other selection criteria you can share with us??

thanks.

 

[SportSavant]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> newbie question - why just road dogs? <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

am curious about this also...

Today we have the Texas Rangers at Home...

+ 170 on the ML

or -1.5 + 298

122 points of vig extra...& a home team to boot?

 

[SSI]

fellas the home team wont bat in the bottom of 9th if they are up 1 and if they are tied and score 1 then its over unless there is a walkoff homerun.. 1 less at bat mostly is the reason..

 

[BSK]

Thanks SSI. That does make sense. However, you made me curious when you said 1 less at-bat "mostly is the reason". Is there anything else that contributes??