Alexgurv's Week 1 Picks

[Alexgurv87]

I'm officially starting school tomorrow (today whatever). Been taking a few classes this last week, but the shit gets crackin tomorrow, so I decided I should finally make some picks.

NCAAF 2007 128-104-6 +16.30 units (55.17%)

To be honest I had a pretty shitty year last year even though I turned a profit on the season, but its only because I went on a couple week run at the end of the season and hit a +2300 dog.

Not as experienced as you guys but still gonna posting my picks and smallish write ups for every pick

Things I don't do..

Bet 20 or more point favorites, don't like it, go figure
Bet Pitt, ill probably do it twice this year, against South Florida, or/and against WVU, and possibly, against Rutgers but I doubt, reason why is because they give me enough stress, having money on them doesn't help the situation. I have a feeling shit wont be very different this year (with the stress). I go to all Pitt home games also.
Bet totals, don't do it for any sports.

Thats about it...here are my leans for week 1, make some picks tomorrow...GL This season. I use bookmaker also

Thursday August 28 2008

Vandy +4
South Carolina -12.5
Stanford +3

Friday August 29 2008

Temple -7

Saturday August 30 2008

Michigan -3.5
Ohio +10.5
Nebraska -14
Kent +10
East Carolina +10
Mizzu -8.5
Clemson -5.5
Florida Int. +37.5

Sunday August 31 2008

Louisville -3.5

Monday September 1 2008

Tennessee -7

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL alex...

 

[mobeer]

ALEX

Nice card......BEST OF LUCK THIS WEEK :toast:



BEER GUY$$

 

[Alexgurv87]

Vandy +4 to win 1 unit

This is an interesting game and I think a lot of people are going with miami. But I don't really see why, this team is predicted to be one of the worst teams in the MAC. They have a weak home field crowd, and I could see this being one of those games were its sort of like "this is where the MAC proves they can beat a BCS team". They were 2-4 last year at home while Vandy was a decent 2-2 on the road. I think Vandy probably wins this game out right and possibly in a blowout.

Oregon St -3 to win 1 unit

Totally flip flopped on this pick, thought I would take Stanford, but looking at more of the numbers from last year, they were a spectacular 2-4 at home ATSm and 2-6 overall at home. Stanford should be a little bit better this year but I dont think we will see it in the first week.

Home openers

2007 vs UCLA - L (45-17)
2006 vs Navy - L (9-37)
2005 vs UC Davis - L (17-20)


So theyve basically sucked in the opener . While Oregon St isnt GREAT on the road but they are certainly decent. A lot of high expecatations this year, this spread should be higer...thats what worries me, but I think they win


NC State @ South Carolina - No play for me, IMO it could go either way, the money is deffinalty on SC

 

[Alexgurv87]

Army +7 to win 1 unit

Another game I totally flip flopped in. Armys one of the few good things about them is they only gave up 180 yards a game last year in the pass. They are very vulnerable against the run, but Temple has little running game, they are more of a passing team. Army's staduim isn't big but the crowd is always rowdy. I also think that Army really struggled on offense last year, they only had 80 yards per game on the ground and 180 in the air. I can see the air figure staying the same, but the new option offense they will be running will deffinatly improve Army's running totals and possible get some more offense.

Michigan -3.5 to win 1 unit

This is probably the sucker bet of the year, and there is really no stats you can use from last years michigan team to back this up because the team is basically brand new. But I know Rich Rodriguez is without question one of the best coaches in the game. I see the guy every year because I try to go to every Pitt-WVU game and he is a great coach. His home opener, I just dont see how Michigan doesnt play leaps and bounds above Utah. I could be way off though lol. Silly reasoning, but im doin it

 

[Alexgurv87]

ive decided to make Vandy a NO PLAY. Canceled the Vandy bet

 

[Alexgurv87]

Ohio +11 to win 1 unit

I guess I'm against the whole board on this one but I feel pretty good about it. Not sure why Wyoming is such a huge pick here. I actually took them last year against VA +3 I believe and I actually bet them a bunch of times after that based off that game and didn't get far. The defense on this team is decent for sure, but the offense is lacking and this is where my problem is. The defense is returning 6 players and the offense is returning 8 starting players. They started out pretty well last year going 4-1 and you would think they were a lock to get into the post season after that but they only won one game after that! They went 0-3-1 ATS last year at home as favorites and actually only went 1-4-1 overall ATS and that one being the Virginia game. I don't see this team being very different this year. There have been reports that the offense is struggling to score against the starting defense. I don't have any questions about the defense, but the offense is a ? They weren't very good on the O-line last year. This is a problem when the best of your team is the running game.

I realize that Ohio got blown up for running yards last year, but the point is Wyoming got lucky to even win the game. Ohio doesn't have the greatest D, but the fact that Wyoming is lacking on O helps that. They are an average team on the road, going 1-1-1 ATS on the road with a lot of veteran talent and coaching coming back.

Bottom line : Ohio loses this game, but i have a lot of trouble seeing Wyoming winning this by a big margin. I know most will disagree...but we will see.

Wyoming at home last year:

vs Virginia 23-3 +3 - W Overall W ATS
vs Utah St 32-18 (worst team in D-1?) -25 W Overall L ATS
vs TCU 24-21 -3 W Overall P ATS
vs New Mexico 3-20 -4 L Overall L ATS
vs UNLV 29-24 -10 W Overall L ATS
vs BYU 10-35 +10 L Overall L ATS

Basically the struggled ATS at home.



V. Tech -9.5 to win 1 unit

Was leaning towards Eastern Carolina on this game before but the suspension of ECU's starting QB for the game recently announced kind of switched me over. Glennon was also announced to start the game for V. Tech and will probably be there starter all year. V. Tech had some trouble with these guys last year but thats because I think of mostly QB inexperience last year. In the last 12 years V. Tech is 11-1 n opening games with the one loss being to the #1 team in the country at the time USC. They usually start out well because they usually have a weaker schedule and kind of dwindle away towards the end of the season and lose their bowl games. I fully expect with Glennon being a lot more experienced then he was last year, he should have a much better year. Ore was dismissed but I could see the team being better in the running game anyway. The defense is diminished but defense and special teams are Beamers specialty, I expect them to be very good , especially with Foster still there coaching them.

Clemson -4.5 to win 1 unit

I love this game. Clemson has the potential to be the best team in the ACC this year. The game is on a neutral site in Atlanta, not sure which way the crowd will go on this one, could be 50/50. Clemson possibly has the best RB duo in the country, the offensive line is less experienced, but other then that they are returning the whole offense. Harper is one of the most efficient QB's in the league. The defense is returning 8 and the d-line should be solid as ever this year and they have a very experienced secondary. That being said will John Parker Wilson really improve that much this year? The team should improve but I can see him struggling in the beginning of the season with a new offensive coordinator. This will be a close game, and a good game, but in the end, I just think Clemson has more talent with Spiller and Harper leading this team.

 

[liftnbet]

great write ups!

 

[Alexgurv87]

Thanks liftnbet GL this year

 

[Alexgurv87]

Cal -4.5 to win 1 unit

Both of these teams should be pretty good this season but my edge goes to Cal because of the home field. One thing that Tedford knows is QB and he has decided to start Riley over last years starter Longshore. Riley showed glimpses of great talent last year against Oregon St especially leading them down the field to a possible game winning TD or at least a game tieng FG. Unfortunately he made a freshman mistake and I believe he scrambled with no timeouts rather then throwing the ball away and the clock ran out. I don't think anything like that will happen this year. He will be significantly improved this season. RB's are also never a problem with Tedford, this year especially, Best might be one of the fastest guys in the country and he could be one of the best by seasons end. Offensive and defensive lines are all back, and this defense will be spectacular. IMO Cal could be one of these best teams in the country this year. I also think Michigan St. will be good, but they don't have nearly the same amount of talent as Cal does. Michigan St hasn't lost an season opening game since 2004, but thats because they've gone up against teams like UAB, Bowling Green, Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Kent St. Cal is slightly better then that, should be a good game, but Cal comes out victorious.

Idaho +27 to win 1 unit

This might be a crazy pick, considering Idaho just won one game all year last year, but the last 3 years, Idaho has opened up against a BCS opponent, and they have covered every year. Last year lost by 28 to USC, 2 years ago lost by 10 to MSU, and 3 years ago lost to Washington St by 12. Not saying Idaho is gonna win or anything, but I can see them keeping it relatively surprisingly close. Same thing with Arizona, they don't exactly blow bitches out. Non-BCS games...

2007
@ BYU (-3) - won by 13
vs Northern Arizona (NL) - won by 21
vs New Mexico (-10) - won by 2

2006
vs BYU (-6) - won by 3
vs Stephen F Austin (NL) - won by 18

and it goes on like that, my main emphasis is on the games not lined. The BYU games were expected to be close, by N. Arizona and S.F. Austin were not.

Mizzu -9 to win 1 unit

In my humbled opinion, Illinois just isn't very good, They won be nearly as good as they were last year without Mendenhall and I cant say I have ever been a believe in the Juice/Zook combo. Illinois has also lost 3 straight in St. Louis and Mizzu is just as talented as last year, if not even better. Daniels only got better towards the end of the year, they lost a lot with Temple but Washington is expected to equal his production and Maclin will have an even bigger role in the offense. Mizzu has now won 6 straight season openers

Hawaii +34 to win 1 unit

God damn it I hate tailing but I'm gonna do it here. Tailing Hawaiiguy and VK here

 

[brewser2]

michigan

i like the michigan pick

 

[Alexgurv87]

GL brewser

feeling sick so gonna keep this short..

Louisville -3.5 to win 1 unit

Kentucky lost their whole entire offense , they return a good defense but I think Louisville should have a much better season then last year. Louiseville wins by double digits

Colorado St +10.5 to win 1 unit

This game is always close

Rutgers -5 to win 1 unit

Fresno St always tries to schedule BCS teams early in the season. Played Oregon and Texas A and m last year...lost. Oregon, Washington, LSU the year before...lost. a lot of you guys are taking a cross country trip and home field advantage for Rutgers where they usually perform really well for granted. This is gonna be their first trip east of the Mississippi since 2006 when they went to LSU and got crushed.

Tennessee -7.5 to win 1 unit

This line seems almost too good to be true. And if this was someone somewhat decent id probably take the other team....Tennessee hasnt won a road opener since 2004. But UCLA has literally nothing, the o-line has no experience...and I like the Volunteers to win the SEC...gotta go with them even though the line is funny

 

[Alexgurv87]

tough weekend so far

N. Illinois +9.5 to win 1 unit