AlexGurv Week Two NCAAF Picks

[Alexgurv87]

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 323pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=431 border=0 x:str><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-LEFT-COLOR: #f0f0f0; BORDER-BOTTOM-COLOR: #f0f0f0; WIDTH: 323pt; BORDER-TOP-COLOR: #f0f0f0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-RIGHT-COLOR: #f0f0f0" width=431 height=17>College Football 2008-2009 Overall 6-10 -5.00 units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rough week in the first one, but that usually happens to me in the first week for whatever reason.

A few thoughts

- Pitt really sucks, I think Buffalo might beat them but im not sure, ill be at the game this weekend
- The Big East is terrible, they didnt beat any of the division 1 teams they played, the coaching style is disgraceful, Rutgers should have won, Pitt should have won. Most of the teams performed really poorly on offense
- ACC is pretty bad, not sure if they are worse then the Big East buts its close
- I had no "bad beats" this week, even though I felt like Rutgers should have been up 30-0 at the half, but I guess thats not really a bad beat, just bad coaching
- I got lucky with my UCLA pick tonight (switched it to UCLA just before gametime), I dont think they will be very good this year even though they won tonight, they won because of bad coaching on the Tennessee side

Leans below.

Thursday, September 4th

South Carolina +10

Friday, September 5th

Navy +7.5

Saturday September 6th

Syracuse -4.5
G. Tech +7
East Carolina +8 (this will be a public play?)
Bowling Green -6
Miami +21.5
T. Tech -9.5
PSU -16.5
L. Tech +20
Middle Tenn St +13
Stanford +14<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[SaltyVeteran]

Thursday, September 4th

South Carolina +10

Nice line homey. Good Luck next weekend :toast:

 

[krk1030]

I'd put my bankroll on South Carolina +10

 

[Alexgurv87]

lol sorry fella's meant -10

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL alex...

 

[ZipLock]

is anyone worse than Fulmer?

- I got lucky with my UCLA pick tonight (switched it to UCLA just before gametime), I dont think they will be very good this year even though they won tonight, they won because of bad coaching on the Tennessee side

seriously, is there a worse coach in 1A than Fulmer?

 

[Alexgurv87]

GL Saltyverteran
GL krk
Gl pags
Gl Zip

Zip - yes, and I go to the school where he coaches, his name is Dave "I'm a moron" Wannstedt

 

[krk1030]

Fulmer, Wannstedt, and Bowden are quite the trio.

 

[Alexgurv87]

Im out of it, meant Vandy, not SC :lol:

Vanderbilt +10 to win 1 unit

Smelley is starting this week, some may argue that he played a lot better then Beecher did, and he did in fact play a lot better, but his numbers maybe a little bit off. He came in the 4th qaurter, the game was alright at hand, the offensive line had started playing better, the running game was picking up and the NC State defense started realizing their offense wasnt gonna score any points. They won 34-0, but they didnt play that well, and that score is very misleading and it looks like they played a great game. NC State's QB got knocked out early in the game, putting in your backup QB automatically fucks you. South Carolina's defense looked great, but was it against a team that has any offense whatsoever

Vanderbilt nearly got outgained on offensive yards wise, but they certainly didnt play poorly, the defense played very well to a certain extent. They picked off 3 balls, they held the Miami offense, who I was told last week was a front runner in the MAC, to a mere 27% in 3rd down efficiancy, they gave up 96 rushing yards, and the QB somehow got 250 passing yards, but he only went 19-46.

The offense also played well and this is the clincher for me, the QB did what he had too and only threw 9/16 passes for 91 yards but the guy ran for 166 yards and 2 TD's also. Overall the running game was great, and it went for 50-270. This is where my clincher for Vandy comes in, Andre Brown, with all of NC State's shittiness still managed to get 101 yards rushing in the game last week, that's 1/4 of what he got last season.

Checking out how they did last season against the rush, it wasnt pretty, and Vandy is a running team, with a moblie QB, and a spread offense

vs Clemson (L) 46-214 4.7 yards per rush - not a mobile QB
vs Florida (L) 48-233 4.9 yards per game - Tebow is obviously a mobile QB ran for 120 yards in the game and 5 Td's
@ Arkansas (L) 58-541 9.3 yards per game - This is the game Nutt didnt even bother putting a QB in, Mcfadden got the direct snap everytime and ran for 323 yards and Jones got a few handes off for 163 and 3 TD's
vs Vandy (L) 47-146 47-147 3.1 yards per game - The QB, Adams ran for 83 yards
@ UNC - (W) 36-113 - Not a running QB, and not even a running team
vs Kentucky - (W) 38-157 - Ill give them credit here, they held Woodson to negative -49 yards, but the rest of the team ran for 200 yards
vs Miss St (W) 42-140 - Played well against them
@ LSU (L) 50-290
vs Georgia (W) - did well
vs South Carolina State (W) - hope they did well
vs UL Lafeyate (W) - 47-250 - got crushed, ULL also has a spread offense with a mobile QB, the QB ran for 131 yards.

My point is that they cant stop a mobile QB to save their life, and that is exaclty what Chris Nickson and this offense is based on. This defense has 10 players coming back, the line has improved, but not by a ton, its mostly the same players. In fact looking back to 2005 they have never been able to stop a mobile QB, ever. I dont know if Vanderbilt neccasarily wins, but this will certaintly be a problem.

Speaking of nothing really changes, Smelley had a bad game against Vandy last year, who is to say this changes. SC rushed for 26 yards, they went 1-12 in 3rd down conversions, and they had 4 turnovers.

There might be a fun argument, that Nickson actually played against SC in 2005 and got crushed for 2 INT's, went 4-15, and threw 2 picks. Well my argument against that is, he still had 70 yards rushing. The coach was qouted as saying this past week, if they had to throw it more, they would have (against Miami). Thats exactly the same type of thing I see in this game. Nickson ended up having to throw a lot because they were down 17-3 at one point. Wont happen this time, Vandy's defense has improved since 2 years ago.

I know most will disagree (what ive seen early on). But hopefully this is a decent writeup explaining my reasoning.

 

[Alexgurv87]

Ball St -7 to win 1 unit

Changed my mind on this one. Navy outrushed Ball State by 230 yards last year and still lost. They are going to without question outrush them again, but they lost a lot of key players from last year and they lost Paul Johnson. Didnt realize how much they lost when it comes to running the ball last year.