Alert: Teasers are for Suckers!!

[stats]

i really rely on math to find the most profitable path. always keep in mind that books are very reluctant to list odds or plays that benefit the bettor. sure most on this forum already know the info, but for those with questions or folks new to the scene, here is a little something i whipped together on the 11th of November:

106 teams played in 53 games in college last week. only 16 of them stayed within 7 points of the line, meaning 37 did not. meaning if you teased every college team last week, you would have hit 69 out of 106, for 65% winners. as we all know you need at least 2 teams in a tease so you drop to 42% just blindly teasing all teams. that is with 7 points, where sportsbooks charge higher odds for the privilege to tease. so you, joe johnny square bettor that you are (kidding, big joke, please laugh) are actually paying the sports books to decrease your chance of winning.

please do not think i am trying to just show up here and say i am smarter than anyone. that is not the case. just putting information out there. and as we are all in this together, information can only help.

i am here to learn, teach and win

GL

 

[JinnRikki]

Cough, cough...(clears throat)....yaaawwwnnn.

 

[stats]

Cough, cough...(clears throat)....yaaawwwnnn.

sorry to offend, just tought some might this information useful. i love capping games, discussing capping, angles, anything sports betting related (for entertainment only, of course). i could tell folks to never bet teasers in college football, but without math to back it up, why would they ever listen?

what do you make of only 30% of games staying within a TD of posted line? i find that number staggering.

 

[sdf]

yes, never tease college foots. should be a sticky here at the RX

 

[Drunkn247]

That is like gambling 101...I would think most people on here knew that already.

 

[ZJP6050]

this is not earth shattering news, lol.

 

[CLefty]

Man stats, try and educate here and see what you get?

 

[ZJP6050]

he's from pittsburgh, i'll give him a break!

 

[HacheMan]

College yes, NFL.........No

 

[cacheman]

So have you found any successful teasers? Perhaps 2-3 team NFL teasers?

 

[PokerKingJim]

college yes, nfl.........no

+1

 

[jcheckers]

So have you found any successful teasers? Perhaps 2-3 team NFL teasers?

Superbowl XLIII paid on a teaser all 4 ways!

 

[ZJP6050]

+1

+2

i've found great success in the NFL with teasers. the traditional "don't cross zero" rule typically always applies for me.

 

[The Thinker]

general rule, no to college teasers..

yes for the nfl...

especially when you can cross the 3 and 7 or 7 and 10 or 10 and 14...

GW

 

[stats]

sorry for presenting non-earth shattering info guys. but as you see, very new to the forum. have no idea about the level of experience or knowledge of the members. hope no one was offended.

moving off the key numbers in NFL seems to be the way to go. i actually started a teaser system last year focused only on teasing +.500 teams on sides, and the top 7 and bottom 7 scoring teams in totals. think that one worked, just teasing everyone, to a 68% chance of winning, justifying the extra juice.

i just find it amazing oddsmakers could miss 70% of lines by more than a TD in college. and i am sure i am late to the party on that one, but it gets to the root of how lines are arrived at.

sure if you had the debate, battle lines have been drawn. i am of the mind that public perception plays the biggest part in setting of a line. after all, equal action is the goal. and if that is the case, it presents a great opportunity to find mistakes and exploit them.

As for being from Pittsburgh, sucks watching your teams win the SB and Cup in the same year....(that was just a joke)

 

[mws]

106 teams played in 53 games in college last week. only 16 of them stayed within 7 points of the line, meaning 37 did not. meaning if you teased every college team last week, you would have hit 69 out of 106, for 65% winners. as we all know you need at least 2 teams in a tease so you drop to 42% just blindly teasing all teams.

But no one blindly teases every game, and there's no math that can say that teasing any particular game is a bad idea.

 

[What'sthegoodword]

I agree that no one would blindly tease every game....are they for suckers...for the most part... but, there is value there if you can really find a couple of good games... again...not just blindly teasing....I do one teaser per week, and have been fairly successful the past few years doing so..now, if I were to bet 10 teasers, probably not.

 

[gynecologist]

I'll bet a few of them.. not every week