Its only weds and i posted mon that i thought Bama could roll in this game....BUT im quickly changing my mind.....keyword= quick...as in team speed and taking advantage of it...Im leaning big time at the moment to LSU by 7 or more....
P.s....if your looking at the lines for this game id love to know what all the books put up for the 1st half..thats the play im really looking to bang hard..hope you'll all post em as you get em!!!
P.s....if your looking at the lines for this game id love to know what all the books put up for the 1st half..thats the play im really looking to bang hard..hope you'll all post em as you get em!!!
D2bets said:
I will go
-3 +240/-260
-3.5 +270/-300(10)
-6 5 +460/-500(520) That one is the tough one to figure with the "dead" numbers
Those would be THE LOWEST I would be willing to even consider, and even then I doubt I would take them. I think I might want more than a dollar if I had to lay 3 over a simple pick. Especially on a dog. Generaly on a 3 point dog at +3 (-110) you ML will be +130/135, so that is a buck twenty/twenty five right... there normally. So on an alternate I want more.
But if you guys are willing to give a 3 point fave and move it to a 3 point SU cushion and only charge me 75 cents for those 3 points I will take them, just make sure you do ir for every game. I bet you my ass I will kill you, and probably wouldn't even have to scalp or middle or buy around.
I can run the numbers if you want where 3 point faves lost by 3 points or less, trust me, the ods you are giving are not correlary to the actual results.
Yes I have looked at them, I surely didn't see anything like you posted. Not to mention they are sparodic at best wehn they put them up. I assume they only have them available on Friday nights?
I aven't looked enough to see if they can be exploited by taking leads and going from there with the big line moves. Obviously Pinnacle uses the moves and money and "sharp" opinions to settle in on a figure to use.
I am not sure there is a set rule of thumb or set of numbers one can put on a game.I think Pinny will post what they figure will be the most profittable, and least volatile/risky for them.
I do see that line has moved to -3 (from a -2 earlier -105/-105), that could have been bought down to a PK -118 ( I think). So if anyone took that buy down to a -118 ML, they already have a scalp, but if they offer any alt spreads on that game that are crazy, the are opening up some scalpable middles in that game.
Like I said, I am not a sharp guy, but I know when and where the advantages are. If/when I can get two sets of numbers that offer me 100.1% or more of an advantage I will generally take at least a portion back. Right now anyone with the -118 on LSU could buy Ala on the ML at +135 (the buy pts has been disabled, probably because they weren't equal) That gives me more than a 3%(almost 4 I think) advantage over the book, so now I am BOOKING the book. THAT is the way to make money.
One thing to guess and predict, another to actually use data to figure it out.
I said it way back. I hedged those numbers 50-60 cents. Plus I added a full dollar to the one above 3.5 as apremium for taking the dog or getting the fave so favorably. Simply because the guy wanted to have it hedged one way.
I think my 6.5 was still too high, but that is a tough one to figure out. I went with what I had. But I also think that -520 +6.5 on LSU is stil a "takeable" number. I wouldn't do it, but I think if you look at historical differences -520 would be profitable using every game that fits.
I aven't looked enough to see if they can be exploited by taking leads and going from there with the big line moves. Obviously Pinnacle uses the moves and money and "sharp" opinions to settle in on a figure to use.
I am not sure there is a set rule of thumb or set of numbers one can put on a game.I think Pinny will post what they figure will be the most profittable, and least volatile/risky for them.
I do see that line has moved to -3 (from a -2 earlier -105/-105), that could have been bought down to a PK -118 ( I think). So if anyone took that buy down to a -118 ML, they already have a scalp, but if they offer any alt spreads on that game that are crazy, the are opening up some scalpable middles in that game.
Like I said, I am not a sharp guy, but I know when and where the advantages are. If/when I can get two sets of numbers that offer me 100.1% or more of an advantage I will generally take at least a portion back. Right now anyone with the -118 on LSU could buy Ala on the ML at +135 (the buy pts has been disabled, probably because they weren't equal) That gives me more than a 3%(almost 4 I think) advantage over the book, so now I am BOOKING the book. THAT is the way to make money.
One thing to guess and predict, another to actually use data to figure it out.
I said it way back. I hedged those numbers 50-60 cents. Plus I added a full dollar to the one above 3.5 as apremium for taking the dog or getting the fave so favorably. Simply because the guy wanted to have it hedged one way.
I think my 6.5 was still too high, but that is a tough one to figure out. I went with what I had. But I also think that -520 +6.5 on LSU is stil a "takeable" number. I wouldn't do it, but I think if you look at historical differences -520 would be profitable using every game that fits.
