Last weekend...
(3-1) SU
(3-1) ATS
Just finished my radio show, figured I'd post what I'm taking here...GL with all your plays.
NOTE: Sorry if the formatting is off, I'm just cutting-and-pasting off my show transcript.
The first game features New Orleans at Seattle on Saturday, Jan. 11[SUP]th[/SUP] at 4:35pm et
The Seahawks are an 8 ½ point favorite and for good reason. They are the better team, at home, well-rested and laid a whooping on New Orleans earlier this season. It’s really that simple, at least as far as what the odds makers are looking at.
The #1 defense vs. the #4 defense square off, in terms of yards allowed per game. The Seahawks led the NFL in allowing only 273.6 YPG, the Saints were surprisingly 4th at 305.7. When you think ‘defense,’ the Saints aren’t the first team that pops in your head or the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], or the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] or the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] or the 5[SUP]th[/SUP]…I could keep going. But this defensive unit also owns the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] lowest points per game allowed at 19. Of course, Seattle has held opponents to 14.4 PPG, tops in the NFL. These numbers would indicate a bit of a defensive battle, possibly a game which neither team scores in the 30’s.
The real definitive edge Seattle possesses over New Orleans is in the ground game. Marshawn Lynch should find some holes against a Saints team ranking 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL against the run, allowing 111.6 YPG. With rain in the forecast, expect Lynch to play a much bigger role this time than the last time they played New Orleans.
One scary stat for Seahawk fans, since 2005, the No. 6 seeds have won five of seven meetings with No. 1 seeds — including victories by two eventual Super Bowl champions which were the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers. There is definitely hope for optimism for the Saints and many columnists and so-called ‘experts’ around the web are hinting at picking the Saints but lack the balls to just say it. They want to save face if Seattle wins and look like geniuses and take the credit if the Saints pull the upset. But not face the fall out of being wrong. Can’t have it both ways, fellas, pick a damn side
8 ½ points, to me, are too much to spot Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham and company – regardless of the fact that they lost by 27 last time in Seattle. Graham was silent last week in their win at Philly, I totally expect him to find the end zone this week.
My advice, take the Saints and the points and except a good game. The (10-6) Arizona Cardinals did beat the Seahawks in Seattle so it’s not like they are invincible at home but with this being a Playoff game, expect the crowd noise to be a factor in favor of the home team, more-so than it was during the regular season. The one thing I believe New Orleans has working in their favor is Seattle is coming off the BYE and may be a bit rusty early on. The Saints MUST take advantage and score first – taking the crowd out of the game early - to have a chance at an upset. New Orleans fans, Who dat? Well dat ain’t you in the NFC Championship,…sorry. The Sea Chickens will still win.
Prediction: Seattle 26 New Orleans 20. NOTE: Weather will be 47 and, get this….RAIN in Seattle…never happens.
Next, Indianapolis at New England , Saturday, Jan. 11[SUP]th[/SUP] at 8:40pm et.
Impressive comeback vs. Kansas City last week for the Colts. This week, however, they face a Playoff mastermind in Bill ‘the Hoodie’ Bellichick and a team that plays its best football in the Playoffs at home. Well, with the exception of the Baltimore game last year.
This game features one of the All-time great quarterbacks in NFL history and future Hall of Famer Tom Brady against a QB who appears to be the future of the position, Andrew Luck. Luck has come as advertised and in only his 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year of Pro Football, is already a Top 12 QB and maybe even Top 10, depending on who you ask. In the regular season, he threw for 3,822 yards, 23 TD’s and 9 INT’s. He also ran for 4 scores. Only Nick Foles and Alex Smith threw less INT’s than him amongst NFL Starters with at least 12 starts.
Brady, after a shaky start, finished 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in passing yards with 4,343 and 25 TD’s, 11 INT’s. He showed signs of age as his stats dropped in every category but he is still one of the best in the business. In his defense, the Patriots were without tight end Rob Gronkowski most of the season and really do not have an elite threat at wide out.
Colts just signed long-time Patriot, Deion Branch. Considering Branch has not played a snap all season, in my opinion this is a decoy. It makes for a distracting mid-week story line. It should be interesting to note that Branch has only played one game against his former team and that was in 2008 with Seattle when he burned them for 2 TD’s.
Colts safety and 2012 Pro-Bowler LaRon Landry has still not been cleared to play after suffering a concussion in last week’s win over the Chiefs. Landry had 87 tackles on the season so this would be a big blow to Indy’s chances if he can’t go. Keep an eye on his status as game time nears.
The Patriots announced LB Brandon Spikes has been placed on the IR, ending his season. Luckily for New England, Spikes bread and butter is stopping the run – running the ball being something the Colts can’t do effectively with Brown and Richardson. I believe the loss of Spikes will be felt more so in the Conference Championship Game, should New England get there as they’ll face Denver or San Diego, both teams with well-balanced attacks that feature 1000-yard backs.
From a defensive standpoint, both defenses are about the same. Colts ranking 9[SUP]th[/SUP], Patriots 10[SUP]t[/SUP][SUP]h[/SUP] in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game, giving up 21 to their opponents. Indy allows about 25 or so less yards a game. So ever so slight edge to the Colts on defense, but almost negligible.
But offensively, even without their big tight end, New England has too much firepower. LaGarette Blount is peaking and has taken over the starting job;. Stevan Ridley has fallen out of favor with Bellichick but is still better in his sleep than any back on the Colts roster. They got Danny Amendola and 1000 yard Julian Edelman at wide out and don’t forget Shane Vereen is a dangerous dual-threat RB out of the backfield, essentially giving them 3 solid receiving threats. Oh, should I get into who their Quarterback and head coach are… For the Colts, it’s Andrew Luck, TY Hilton and pray for a natural disaster to postpone the game. You can’t use the baseball expression ‘pray for rain’ because they play through rain in the NFL. I can’t even name any of the other Colt wide receivers. Their backfield is a disappointment with Donald Brown and Trent Richardson.
I think experience wins here; I see Brady and the Pats moving on to the AFC Title Game with relative ease. I expect New England to double-team talented wide out T.Y. Hilton with corner Kyle Arrington and some help from Devin McCourty over the top. Talib is the Pats best corner but he’s banged up and does better against larger, more physical wide outs. Hilton is a burner and the Pats don’t want to risk him getting the drop on Talib as other speedsters have already. If the Pats effectively take out Hilton, the Colts stand little chance. Don’t get me wrong, Andrew Luck is going to win his share of Playoff games down the line but it will take a stronger supporting cast than what he has right now. A weak ground game and one option to throw to won’t get you very far. Also, the Reggie Wayne injury earlier in the season hurts. If Wayne was healthy, this one would get interesting.
Andrew Luck used up all his luck last week, my prediction: New England 27 Indianapolis 13. The odds makers have New England a 7 ½ point favorite, I recommend laying the lumber on the Patriots. NOTE: Weather forecast, rain, temp around 43 at kickoff.
(3-1) SU
(3-1) ATS
Just finished my radio show, figured I'd post what I'm taking here...GL with all your plays.
NOTE: Sorry if the formatting is off, I'm just cutting-and-pasting off my show transcript.
The first game features New Orleans at Seattle on Saturday, Jan. 11[SUP]th[/SUP] at 4:35pm et
The Seahawks are an 8 ½ point favorite and for good reason. They are the better team, at home, well-rested and laid a whooping on New Orleans earlier this season. It’s really that simple, at least as far as what the odds makers are looking at.
The #1 defense vs. the #4 defense square off, in terms of yards allowed per game. The Seahawks led the NFL in allowing only 273.6 YPG, the Saints were surprisingly 4th at 305.7. When you think ‘defense,’ the Saints aren’t the first team that pops in your head or the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP], or the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] or the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] or the 5[SUP]th[/SUP]…I could keep going. But this defensive unit also owns the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] lowest points per game allowed at 19. Of course, Seattle has held opponents to 14.4 PPG, tops in the NFL. These numbers would indicate a bit of a defensive battle, possibly a game which neither team scores in the 30’s.
The real definitive edge Seattle possesses over New Orleans is in the ground game. Marshawn Lynch should find some holes against a Saints team ranking 19[SUP]th[/SUP] in the NFL against the run, allowing 111.6 YPG. With rain in the forecast, expect Lynch to play a much bigger role this time than the last time they played New Orleans.
One scary stat for Seahawk fans, since 2005, the No. 6 seeds have won five of seven meetings with No. 1 seeds — including victories by two eventual Super Bowl champions which were the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers. There is definitely hope for optimism for the Saints and many columnists and so-called ‘experts’ around the web are hinting at picking the Saints but lack the balls to just say it. They want to save face if Seattle wins and look like geniuses and take the credit if the Saints pull the upset. But not face the fall out of being wrong. Can’t have it both ways, fellas, pick a damn side
8 ½ points, to me, are too much to spot Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham and company – regardless of the fact that they lost by 27 last time in Seattle. Graham was silent last week in their win at Philly, I totally expect him to find the end zone this week.
My advice, take the Saints and the points and except a good game. The (10-6) Arizona Cardinals did beat the Seahawks in Seattle so it’s not like they are invincible at home but with this being a Playoff game, expect the crowd noise to be a factor in favor of the home team, more-so than it was during the regular season. The one thing I believe New Orleans has working in their favor is Seattle is coming off the BYE and may be a bit rusty early on. The Saints MUST take advantage and score first – taking the crowd out of the game early - to have a chance at an upset. New Orleans fans, Who dat? Well dat ain’t you in the NFC Championship,…sorry. The Sea Chickens will still win.
Prediction: Seattle 26 New Orleans 20. NOTE: Weather will be 47 and, get this….RAIN in Seattle…never happens.
Next, Indianapolis at New England , Saturday, Jan. 11[SUP]th[/SUP] at 8:40pm et.
Impressive comeback vs. Kansas City last week for the Colts. This week, however, they face a Playoff mastermind in Bill ‘the Hoodie’ Bellichick and a team that plays its best football in the Playoffs at home. Well, with the exception of the Baltimore game last year.
This game features one of the All-time great quarterbacks in NFL history and future Hall of Famer Tom Brady against a QB who appears to be the future of the position, Andrew Luck. Luck has come as advertised and in only his 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] year of Pro Football, is already a Top 12 QB and maybe even Top 10, depending on who you ask. In the regular season, he threw for 3,822 yards, 23 TD’s and 9 INT’s. He also ran for 4 scores. Only Nick Foles and Alex Smith threw less INT’s than him amongst NFL Starters with at least 12 starts.
Brady, after a shaky start, finished 6[SUP]th[/SUP] in passing yards with 4,343 and 25 TD’s, 11 INT’s. He showed signs of age as his stats dropped in every category but he is still one of the best in the business. In his defense, the Patriots were without tight end Rob Gronkowski most of the season and really do not have an elite threat at wide out.
Colts just signed long-time Patriot, Deion Branch. Considering Branch has not played a snap all season, in my opinion this is a decoy. It makes for a distracting mid-week story line. It should be interesting to note that Branch has only played one game against his former team and that was in 2008 with Seattle when he burned them for 2 TD’s.
Colts safety and 2012 Pro-Bowler LaRon Landry has still not been cleared to play after suffering a concussion in last week’s win over the Chiefs. Landry had 87 tackles on the season so this would be a big blow to Indy’s chances if he can’t go. Keep an eye on his status as game time nears.
The Patriots announced LB Brandon Spikes has been placed on the IR, ending his season. Luckily for New England, Spikes bread and butter is stopping the run – running the ball being something the Colts can’t do effectively with Brown and Richardson. I believe the loss of Spikes will be felt more so in the Conference Championship Game, should New England get there as they’ll face Denver or San Diego, both teams with well-balanced attacks that feature 1000-yard backs.
From a defensive standpoint, both defenses are about the same. Colts ranking 9[SUP]th[/SUP], Patriots 10[SUP]t[/SUP][SUP]h[/SUP] in the NFL in terms of points allowed per game, giving up 21 to their opponents. Indy allows about 25 or so less yards a game. So ever so slight edge to the Colts on defense, but almost negligible.
But offensively, even without their big tight end, New England has too much firepower. LaGarette Blount is peaking and has taken over the starting job;. Stevan Ridley has fallen out of favor with Bellichick but is still better in his sleep than any back on the Colts roster. They got Danny Amendola and 1000 yard Julian Edelman at wide out and don’t forget Shane Vereen is a dangerous dual-threat RB out of the backfield, essentially giving them 3 solid receiving threats. Oh, should I get into who their Quarterback and head coach are… For the Colts, it’s Andrew Luck, TY Hilton and pray for a natural disaster to postpone the game. You can’t use the baseball expression ‘pray for rain’ because they play through rain in the NFL. I can’t even name any of the other Colt wide receivers. Their backfield is a disappointment with Donald Brown and Trent Richardson.
I think experience wins here; I see Brady and the Pats moving on to the AFC Title Game with relative ease. I expect New England to double-team talented wide out T.Y. Hilton with corner Kyle Arrington and some help from Devin McCourty over the top. Talib is the Pats best corner but he’s banged up and does better against larger, more physical wide outs. Hilton is a burner and the Pats don’t want to risk him getting the drop on Talib as other speedsters have already. If the Pats effectively take out Hilton, the Colts stand little chance. Don’t get me wrong, Andrew Luck is going to win his share of Playoff games down the line but it will take a stronger supporting cast than what he has right now. A weak ground game and one option to throw to won’t get you very far. Also, the Reggie Wayne injury earlier in the season hurts. If Wayne was healthy, this one would get interesting.
Andrew Luck used up all his luck last week, my prediction: New England 27 Indianapolis 13. The odds makers have New England a 7 ½ point favorite, I recommend laying the lumber on the Patriots. NOTE: Weather forecast, rain, temp around 43 at kickoff.
