My Write-ups
As promised, my show airs twice on Saturday this week...
New England at Denver, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2013 at 3pm ET
This will be
Brady/ Manning Part 15 (XV).
Tom Brady leads the head-to-head series, (
10-4). I think both these aging legends have at least
2 more seasons in them as legitimate starters in this league so this certainly won’t be the last time they face off. Both teams will be contenders next year, for certain. This match-up between
Brady and
Manning has been referred to as the
‘War of 1812’ due to their uniform numbers. Not sure who the genius was that came up with that one, probably one of those people that sit around and fold the dollar bill
148 times until it resembles something creepy. What you should know?
Tom Brady is
(18-7) in
25 career Playoff starts, but he is only
(8-7) in his last
15 after winning his first
10.
Peyton Manning is
(10-11) in
21 starts,
(1-1) as a Bronco. To me, those records are a telling sign of who can get it done this time of year. And the edge clearly goes to
Brady.
So what does Denver have going for them? Well, first off. Home field advantage. Broncos went
(7-1) at home in the regular season,
(8-1) if you count the Playoffs. That can never be overlooked. There’s been studies showing the home team wins around
57.3% of the time, in the NFL. Also, there’s the
Wes Welker revenge factor.
Welker felt a little resentment toward the Patriots organization for not making an effort to re-sign him. So count on him making a point in the biggest game of the season for both teams. But the resentment runs, both ways. Many fans blame Welker, myself included, for that dropped pass in the last Super Bowl which, had he caught it, would have allowed the Patriots to essentially run out the clock and beat the Giants. The pass was not perfect but we’ve seen Welker make that type of catch his entire career with New England. So my best guess is Welker will have a decent game for Denver. Well, definitely bigger than his
4 grab,
31 yard effort the first time vs. his former team. And finally, offense.
Peyton Manning has 4 credible receiving threats – both
Thomas’s,
Welker and
Decker - and a solid running game behind him with a
Top 12 back in
Moreno and rookie
Montee Ball. But what do you expect from an offense that ranked tops in the NFL with
37.9 points per game – almost
10 points more than New England! But keep in mind, for the 2013 Playoffs, the Patriots have a
43-24 PPG edge. The Broncos will need more than
24 points to win this game. Another factor in
Denver’s favor is the
Pats are
3-6 in their last
9 road playoffs and
7-9 overall on the road.
What does New England have going for them? Well, as stated previously, they are putting up more points than any of the playoff teams left. I understand conventional wisdom dictates that when a good team beats another good team the first time around, usually the other team wins the next time around but keep in mind last time these two teams met, the
Patriots running game was in shambles. New England fumbled their way into a quick 1st quarter hole in that game. Not no more.
LaGarrette Blount is playing out of his mind and that makes the Patriots a more balanced team on offense and the reason they are putting up 43 PPG in the Playoffs. Also, New England has that Jedi mastermind in a hoodie
Bill Bellichick calling the shots with a February trip to MetLife Stadium at stake.
Bill is (11-6) all-time against Peyton Manning – the most wins by any coach against the future Hall of Famer. Then there’s the
Tom Brady factor.
No QB is better at mounting 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter comes backs than ‘Tom Terrific’ who has 31 fourth quarter comebacks and 42 game-winning drives under his belt. Sorry Denver fans, but no lead will be safe in this game.
Brady is also
7-2 in
AFC Championships.In his career, Tom Brady has never lost to a Jack Del Rio-coached defense, and his teams have averaged 30 points per game while going 7-0. He’s gone 171-for-235 (73 percent) for 1,764 yards, 17 touchdowns and no picks in seven games -- to put that into perspective, that’s a per-game average of 24-for-34 (70 percent) for 252 yards, 2.4 TD's and no interceptions. As some of you may remember, Del Rio was the long-time Jaguar's coach from 2003-11 before taking over for as defensive coordinator for the Broncos on 2012.
On defense
, New England has a slight edge. Over the regular season, they allowed
3.8 points less a game than the Broncos. The yards allowed is close to the same between these two teams.
Injury News:
At the beginning of the week, Denver announced that they had lost
Chris Harris, arguably their top corner, torn ACL, and will miss the remainder of the Playoffs. If you watched last week’s game, San Diego struggled to throw on Denver with Harris and as soon as he left, they mounted that late comeback attempt. Coincidence? Likely not. Harris had 3 INT’s, 13 pass deflections and 58 tackles in the regular season for the Broncos. My best guess is veteran
Quentin Jammer will start in Harris’ place. Huge downgrade at right corner, in my opinion. Especially is a big game. Huge news for Tom Brady and the Pats.
Tom Brady missed Wednesday’s practice but returned Thursday and is good to go. Writers are always desperate for a mid-week storyline. Nothing more than a cold and a sore right shoulder, which is normal for this time of the season. You try throwing 653 pass attempts in 17 weeks and tell me how your throwing shoulder feels. Do not read too much into this when making your selection for the game.
What Should You Expect?
Last time these two teams met in November,
Denver blew a
24 point lead at
Gillette Stadium and
New England prevailed
34-31 in overtime.
Knowshon Moreno went nuts, running for
224 yards and a
touchdown. Don’t expect him to duplicate those numbers but he’ll probably approach the 100-yard mark and a score. But keep in mind, Denver had
Chris Harris in that game. As stated at the beginning, the star defensive back will not play in this one.
I think that factor swings this one from a Denver win by 4 to a Patriot win by 2. While Denver has the edge on offense, I think the Pats defense, at this point, is slightly better than Denver’s and with two high-octane offenses, give me the team that stands the biggest chance of a key stop. With the weather being
40 degrees warmer in this contest than the last one, I expect to see both teams airing it out.
My best advice, take the
Patriots and the
5 ½ and don’t be surprised to see the upset. The possibility is more realistic than most of you might think. Never count Bellichick and Brady out of any game,
especially games played in January.
My Official Score Prediction:
New England 34 Denver 32.
We’ll take a quick break and be back with the second game…you are listening to xxx xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx….
San Francisco at Seattle, Sunday, Jan. 19, 2013 at 630pm ET.
As I said it before the Playoffs began, the only team that has a chance of coming into Seattle and winning
WAS this 49’ers team however I felt that they, too, would struggle if the road to the Bowl came through the Emerald City. Well, it does and unfortunately for the 9’ers, it will be the end of the road for their 2013-14 season. I see
Colin Kaepernick struggling to get much done, battling the elements, crowd noise and the vaunted Seahawk D.
What does
San Francisco have going for them? Well, first they are peaking at the right time. After a sluggish beginning to the season, losing 2 out of their first 3, they’ve righted and find themselves in the midst of a
(15-2) run.
Colin Kaepernick is
(3-0) in career road Playoff games. But again that road has never run through
Seattle. The
9’ers are a veteran team that thrives this time of season. With a win against the Seahawks already in the books in 2013, they’ve proven they can at least hang with these guys, albeit on their own turf. After coming up oh so close last year in the Super Bowl, these guys are hungry and in my opinion, this version of the 49’ers is better than last year’s. If you look at the amount of offensive weapons and the explosiveness of the individual players, I have to give an edge to San Francisco. At QB, it’s too close to call. Toss a coin between
Kaepernick and
Wilson. Seattle has the edge in the running game, in my opinion, with
Lynch over
Gore but again, that’s virtually a coin toss, as well. However, when you consider
Vernon Davis,
Anquan Boldin and
Michael Crabtree you have a receiving threat that
Seattle simply don’t have. The Seahawks have, well, when
Golden Tate is your #1 WR, there’s not much good I can do to talk their pass catchers up. All indications are that
Percy Harvin will likely sit.
What does
Seattle have going for them? Well, first off – the crowd noise A.K.A., the ‘12[SUP]th[/SUP] Man. Ask
Drew Brees how hard it is to call plays. When arguably the best QB in the league struggles there twice, it must be pretty tough to play there. Oh, did I mention it’s been
8 years since Seattle has lost a home playoff game. Slight edge on defense for the
Seahawks but the
49’ers are no slouch on
D, either- just ask
Cam Newton. The Hawks D allowed an NFL-low
14.4 PPG and gave up only
274 YPG. By comparison, the 49’ers allow
17 PPG and give up
306 YPG.
The
Seahawks have won
16 of
17 home games with
Russell Wilson under center. The lone loss, the late-season
17-10 defeat to the
Cardinals in Week 16, which everyone still talks about when analyzing this contest. You would think they lost to Jacksonville or Houston but it was the
(10-6) Cardinals who were playing for their Playoff lives and damn-near finished
(11-5) if not for a late FG as time expired by San Fan in Week 17. 49’ers fans point to that
Arizona win in
Seattle as an indicator that the Seahawks are
NOT invincible at
Century Link Field. Invincible, no, but winning
16 out of
17 in that place with
Russell Wilson at the helm is a stat I certainly won’t kick out of bed. Oh, and
Seattle has outscored
San Fran,
71-16 the last two times these teams have met in
Seattle. But who’s keeping track? Niner fans won’t talk about those stats.
INJURY NEWS: Not a whole lot. For Seattle, Wide out
Percy Harvin likely won’t play with a concussion. For the 9’ers, cornerback
Carlos Rogers was limited in practice all week. Linebacker
Ahmad Brooks missed Wednesday’s practice but returned Thursday and I suspect he’ll be out there on Sunday.
So for my Official Prediction:
Seattle 24 San Francisco 12. Weather actually looks decent, 50 degrees, light wind and a 10% chance of rain.
Simply put, Seattle is the only team I view as ‘elite.’ The other 3 teams are very good but I the Seahawks a tier above them.
Well, that wraps up this short show. I am the AK Bandito and I’d like to thank you all for taking the time to listen in to XXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXX and enjoy the games on Sunday.
I also post my show transcripts in my threads (x'ing out any other people's names/ station name etc.)
hno
