$256/$200 Chicago Cubs (-128)
Write-Up:
First off lets get this straight off the top. These two pitchers have virtually identical stats. Both having 19 innings pitched with an ERA of 2.37. The advantage in WHIP goes to Lilly with .74 whereas Looper's is 1.11. The only problem is the Cubbie's have only gave Lilly an average run support of 2.3 runs per each of his starts. You can't win much with no support, right? But things have changed since Lilly's last start. The Cubs have put up 24 runs in their last 4 games, which is 6 runs per game. Believe me if they put up 6 today it'll be an easy winner, but that's not the point. Even though they only won 3-0 yesterday, they hit the ball fairly well. They put up 8 hits and Ryan Theriot, Matt Murton, and Micheal Barret all had 2 hits. When you can get wins and hits when your big bats aren't hitting, you know things are on a turn around. Aramis Ramirez got a hit to extend his hitting streak last night as well so you can count on him being fired up to hit #16 in a row.
Now let's look at St. Louis and you tell me how they will put up numbers on Lilly. Runs per game 3.2 in which they are ranked 28th. Team batting average .232 in which they are ranked 26th. They have the 29th ranked on-base slugging percentage at .636. Now it gets even worse. While you can see by the numbers, they don't get many people on base and don't score much. So even when they get on base they have a problem moving them up. Ranked at 27th in the ML they only have 4 steals. This team is really struggling having lost 4 in a row and 5 out of the last 6. I just don't see this being a good opportunity for the Cards to put something together, on the other hand the Cubs have been showing some offense lately and great pitching. Watch it continue today in this early afternoon winner.
Good Luck to everyone today!