NFL's most overrated players
Kuechly among top individuals earning more credit than they deserve
By Steve Palazzolo | Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER
Everyone loves a good list, particularly one ranking the NFL's best players, and the offseason generally finds quite a few to browse through. At PFF, we feel we're as qualified as anyone to put together a list of the league's best players, so we've continued with our traditional Top 101. Part of our uniqueness is the ability to view the entire league through virtually the same set of eyes and within the same system. It's for these reasons that we can minimize bias through our grades to provide a strong snapshot of a player's performance in a given year.
As for the list, it's more than just a glance at the grades. We go back and forth internally discussing not only grades but also consistency, role, snap count, postseason work, competition and any other important factors that may go into separating the best players in the league. As with any list, the debate rages on.
One thing to remember is that our list is based strictly on 2013 and that we have stuck to the mantra that all positions are created equally to give everyone a shot to make it, thereby avoiding the quarterback-heavy list that would most undoubtedly ensue. We also took the postseason into consideration when accumulating the list.
Here's a look at the players many fans and media will be surprised to see at the bottom half of the PFF 101.
Luke Kuechly, Carolina Panthers, No. 80
The 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year at No. 80? Kuechly did have a strong season, but he wasn't even considered for PFF Defensive Player of the Year in what amounted to a two-horse race. Why the disconnect?
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To start, the success of the Panthers' defense was probably Kuechly's biggest ally. While the defensive player of the year is an individual award, Kuechly got a lot of publicity for being the leader of one of the league's best defenses. While that is a valuable role, there's a good argument to be made that Kuechly isn't even the best player on his defensive unit, never mind the league's best. Teammate Greg Hardy came in at No. 41 in the PFF 101, as he led the way for a Panthers defensive line that dominated up front to the tune of a league-leading 60 sacks as a team. Kuechly wasn't even the highest-ranked linebacker on his team, as Thomas Davis came in at 52nd in the 101. Carolina's defensive success had more to do with a dominant defensive line than anything Kuechly did individually.
The second area where Kuechly is lauded is in his high tackle numbers. The NFL credited him with 156 total tackles, good for fourth in the league. The first issue with the stat is the NFL's acknowledgement that the tackle numbers are unofficial and often charted differently around the league. In addition, simply bringing down the ball carrier does not make a play successful, nor does it account for the times a player is beaten in coverage or blocked in the running game. It's not that making tackles is bad; it's just that with the rise in popularity of advanced numbers and statistics, as well as certain companies (PFF) actually grading each and every play in the NFL from a football standpoint, there's really no excuse to rely on primitive, uninformative numbers like total tackles to determine a player's worth.
While it may sound like we're diminishing Kuechly's overall play, he does a lot of things well. He is one of the league's best run-stopping inside linebackers, and he may have been the best at shedding blocks at the second level. His plus-6.8 grade against the run ranked third among inside linebackers while picking up a stop on 12.0 percent of his run snaps, also good for third at the position. He also added strong work in coverage, as his plus-2.4 grade ranked 14th among inside linebackers and his 0.81 yards/cover snap came in 13th. The numbers are solid but certainly not the makings of a defensive player of the year candidate, nor a top-50 player in the league. His standing at No. 80 overall seems just about right for 2013.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals, No. 97
There's no denying Green's talent, and if we were ranking on that alone, Green would certainly be ranked among the top-five wide receivers and possibly among the top players overall. Unfortunately, Green's PFF grade took a step back in 2013 (plus-22.0 in 2012 to plus-12.9 in 2013), a year that saw some very good wide receiver play around the league. So while the raw numbers look good, ranking sixth among wide receivers in receptions with 98 and fifth in yards with 1,426, he simply wasn't as productive on a per-snap basis as some of his peers last season.
First, Green saw the third-most targets in the league with 172, and he dropped 11 of his 109 catchable passes, good for a drop rate of 10.6 percent that ranked 14th-worst among receivers with at least 40 receptions. Of Green's 98 catches, only 66.3 percent went for first downs, a number that ranked 42nd among all pass-catchers.
Green lacked the consistency of his peers in 2013, as he graded negatively in the receiving game five times, a feat matched only by Alshon Jeffery among the other top 100 wide receivers. His last negative game came in the Bengals' playoff defeat at the hands of the San Diego Chargers, as Green was held to three catches for 34 yards.
It's hardly a knock to be rated among the top 101 players in the league, and this shouldn't be seen as one against Green. He had a very good season, but it gets lost in the mix of a lot of other very good wide receiver seasons and Green found himself as more of a top-10 receiver in the league rather than the top-five talent we've come to expect. There's no doubting that he's capable of moving back into that range, but that simply wasn't the case in 2013.
Patrick Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, No. 58
The hype for Peterson has been mostly of his own doing of late, as his social media "feud" with his fellow cornerbacks has made headlines.
Similar to Green, Peterson has all the physical talent in the world and uses it well for the most part, but he hasn't done it on a weekly basis like some of league's other top cornerbacks. Overall, Peterson ranked 15th among cornerbacks with a plus-5.9 coverage grade, but he did so while tracking the opposition's top wide receiver 55 percent of the time.
His assignment may be more difficult than some of the league's other corners, but he has yet to perform at a level that puts him into the top echelon at the position. He surrendered seven touchdowns into his coverage -- tying for third most in the league -- while his 1.00 yards/cover snap tied for 15th. Using interception numbers to judge a cornerback may be even worse than using tackles for a linebacker, but Peterson got his hands on only nine passes (three intercepted, six passes defensed), a number you would expect to be a little higher for a top cornerback that was targeted 90 times.
Another similarity to Green is Peterson's week-to-week consistency issues, as he finished seven games with negative coverage grades, including a disastrous Week 15 performance that saw him surrender nine catches on 10 targets for 146 yards, most of which came at the hands of Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kendall Wright. While we're certainly not going to hold one game against a player, these are the types of performances that must be avoided if Peterson is going to take the next step to rank among the best cornerbacks in the league. Until then, he's a very good player who takes on assignments of above-average difficulty on a weekly basis.
Kuechly among top individuals earning more credit than they deserve
By Steve Palazzolo | Pro Football Focus
ESPN INSIDER
Everyone loves a good list, particularly one ranking the NFL's best players, and the offseason generally finds quite a few to browse through. At PFF, we feel we're as qualified as anyone to put together a list of the league's best players, so we've continued with our traditional Top 101. Part of our uniqueness is the ability to view the entire league through virtually the same set of eyes and within the same system. It's for these reasons that we can minimize bias through our grades to provide a strong snapshot of a player's performance in a given year.
As for the list, it's more than just a glance at the grades. We go back and forth internally discussing not only grades but also consistency, role, snap count, postseason work, competition and any other important factors that may go into separating the best players in the league. As with any list, the debate rages on.
One thing to remember is that our list is based strictly on 2013 and that we have stuck to the mantra that all positions are created equally to give everyone a shot to make it, thereby avoiding the quarterback-heavy list that would most undoubtedly ensue. We also took the postseason into consideration when accumulating the list.
Here's a look at the players many fans and media will be surprised to see at the bottom half of the PFF 101.
Luke Kuechly, Carolina Panthers, No. 80
The 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year at No. 80? Kuechly did have a strong season, but he wasn't even considered for PFF Defensive Player of the Year in what amounted to a two-horse race. Why the disconnect?
<OFFER></OFFER>
To start, the success of the Panthers' defense was probably Kuechly's biggest ally. While the defensive player of the year is an individual award, Kuechly got a lot of publicity for being the leader of one of the league's best defenses. While that is a valuable role, there's a good argument to be made that Kuechly isn't even the best player on his defensive unit, never mind the league's best. Teammate Greg Hardy came in at No. 41 in the PFF 101, as he led the way for a Panthers defensive line that dominated up front to the tune of a league-leading 60 sacks as a team. Kuechly wasn't even the highest-ranked linebacker on his team, as Thomas Davis came in at 52nd in the 101. Carolina's defensive success had more to do with a dominant defensive line than anything Kuechly did individually.
The second area where Kuechly is lauded is in his high tackle numbers. The NFL credited him with 156 total tackles, good for fourth in the league. The first issue with the stat is the NFL's acknowledgement that the tackle numbers are unofficial and often charted differently around the league. In addition, simply bringing down the ball carrier does not make a play successful, nor does it account for the times a player is beaten in coverage or blocked in the running game. It's not that making tackles is bad; it's just that with the rise in popularity of advanced numbers and statistics, as well as certain companies (PFF) actually grading each and every play in the NFL from a football standpoint, there's really no excuse to rely on primitive, uninformative numbers like total tackles to determine a player's worth.
While it may sound like we're diminishing Kuechly's overall play, he does a lot of things well. He is one of the league's best run-stopping inside linebackers, and he may have been the best at shedding blocks at the second level. His plus-6.8 grade against the run ranked third among inside linebackers while picking up a stop on 12.0 percent of his run snaps, also good for third at the position. He also added strong work in coverage, as his plus-2.4 grade ranked 14th among inside linebackers and his 0.81 yards/cover snap came in 13th. The numbers are solid but certainly not the makings of a defensive player of the year candidate, nor a top-50 player in the league. His standing at No. 80 overall seems just about right for 2013.
A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals, No. 97
There's no denying Green's talent, and if we were ranking on that alone, Green would certainly be ranked among the top-five wide receivers and possibly among the top players overall. Unfortunately, Green's PFF grade took a step back in 2013 (plus-22.0 in 2012 to plus-12.9 in 2013), a year that saw some very good wide receiver play around the league. So while the raw numbers look good, ranking sixth among wide receivers in receptions with 98 and fifth in yards with 1,426, he simply wasn't as productive on a per-snap basis as some of his peers last season.
First, Green saw the third-most targets in the league with 172, and he dropped 11 of his 109 catchable passes, good for a drop rate of 10.6 percent that ranked 14th-worst among receivers with at least 40 receptions. Of Green's 98 catches, only 66.3 percent went for first downs, a number that ranked 42nd among all pass-catchers.
Green lacked the consistency of his peers in 2013, as he graded negatively in the receiving game five times, a feat matched only by Alshon Jeffery among the other top 100 wide receivers. His last negative game came in the Bengals' playoff defeat at the hands of the San Diego Chargers, as Green was held to three catches for 34 yards.
It's hardly a knock to be rated among the top 101 players in the league, and this shouldn't be seen as one against Green. He had a very good season, but it gets lost in the mix of a lot of other very good wide receiver seasons and Green found himself as more of a top-10 receiver in the league rather than the top-five talent we've come to expect. There's no doubting that he's capable of moving back into that range, but that simply wasn't the case in 2013.
Patrick Peterson, Arizona Cardinals, No. 58
The hype for Peterson has been mostly of his own doing of late, as his social media "feud" with his fellow cornerbacks has made headlines.
Similar to Green, Peterson has all the physical talent in the world and uses it well for the most part, but he hasn't done it on a weekly basis like some of league's other top cornerbacks. Overall, Peterson ranked 15th among cornerbacks with a plus-5.9 coverage grade, but he did so while tracking the opposition's top wide receiver 55 percent of the time.
His assignment may be more difficult than some of the league's other corners, but he has yet to perform at a level that puts him into the top echelon at the position. He surrendered seven touchdowns into his coverage -- tying for third most in the league -- while his 1.00 yards/cover snap tied for 15th. Using interception numbers to judge a cornerback may be even worse than using tackles for a linebacker, but Peterson got his hands on only nine passes (three intercepted, six passes defensed), a number you would expect to be a little higher for a top cornerback that was targeted 90 times.
Another similarity to Green is Peterson's week-to-week consistency issues, as he finished seven games with negative coverage grades, including a disastrous Week 15 performance that saw him surrender nine catches on 10 targets for 146 yards, most of which came at the hands of Tennessee Titans wide receiver Kendall Wright. While we're certainly not going to hold one game against a player, these are the types of performances that must be avoided if Peterson is going to take the next step to rank among the best cornerbacks in the league. Until then, he's a very good player who takes on assignments of above-average difficulty on a weekly basis.
