I should clarify that this is my largest play YTD in CFB and the amounts I posted are just to illustrate the proportions I'm using at it relates to the straight bet at +7' vs. the ML bet at +240. I have bet more than $11 and $2...just wanted to show the proper relationship between the two wagers.
A.F. +7' 11 Units / 10 Units
A.F. +240 2 Units / 2.8 Units
For all those who keep questioning the $11/$10. 11 Units could be $11, $1100, $11,000, $55,000...do the math and bet accordingly to your Units.
IF you're betting $11,000.00 on A.F. +7', then I am recommending a $2000.00 bet on the Money Line at +240.
A.F. +240 2 Units / 2.8 Units
For all those who keep questioning the $11/$10. 11 Units could be $11, $1100, $11,000, $55,000...do the math and bet accordingly to your Units.
IF you're betting $11,000.00 on A.F. +7', then I am recommending a $2000.00 bet on the Money Line at +240.
Don't say it isn't true. You have no clue as to where I'm getting these figures. As I see it, you are 7 hours late with the opening number.
Line opened at 7,.5 on 10/5/14 @ 5:25pm
A 9 didn't show up till 12:04am on 10/6/14
I received my stats when I posted it at 90% and it was sitting on 7.
To make my point here is the open and by the way as you have pointed out you can get an opening number from anywhere. However you will NOT FIND AN EARLIER NUMBER THAN THIS ONE!
| 10/07 11:43 AM | +7 -110 | -7 -110 |
| 10/07 11:43 AM | +7½ -115 | -7½ -105 |
| 10/06 01:01 PM | +7½ -110 | -7½ -110 |
| 10/06 11:31 AM | +8 -110 | -8 -110 |
| 10/06 11:23 AM | +8½ -115 | -8½ -105 |
| 10/06 11:22 AM | +9 -120 | -9 +100 |
| 10/06 11:21 AM | +9 -115 | -9 -105 |
| 10/06 09:19 AM | +9½ -110 | -9½ -110 |
| 10/06 12:54 AM | +9 -105 | -9 -115 |
| 10/06 12:04 AM | +9 -110 | -9 -110 |
| 10/05 06:05 PM | +8½ -110 | -8½ -110 |
| 10/05 05:43 PM | +8 -110 | -8 -110 |
| 10/05 05:25 PM | +7½ -110 | -7½ -110 |
The most Widely available Opener was -9; perhaps I was "7 hours late". I do know that sharp early action is on A.F. and as the week progresses, there will be more Utah State -7 bets coming in (I can assure you 90% of the bets placed right now are not A.F. BUT it stands to reason that most of the EARLY ACTION in this game came in on the A.F side; don't be surprised if this number falls off the "7". Again, I think A.F. wins the game.
How can you say the sharp action was on AF? From 5:25pm to 12:04am it was bet up to -9. This is before you got to see the line. Doesn't seem to be on AF does it?
Now, let me throw this out for you to think about. Do you think just maybe when it got to 9.5 someone decided to middle it?
I'm serious when I say BOL on your pick. There are better games this weekend. Don't need this excessive line movement when it is obvious something is amiss.
Now, let me throw this out for you to think about. Do you think just maybe when it got to 9.5 someone decided to middle it?
I'm serious when I say BOL on your pick. There are better games this weekend. Don't need this excessive line movement when it is obvious something is amiss.
I don't believe it was "bet up to 9". The early sharp action is on A.F....if you think a "feint" move from 7.5 - 9.5 means that the line was "bet up" to 9, so someone could grab the 8 and/or the 9 in the middle, you are mistaken. This move through dead numbers is a ploy and tactic only in this case...that is my opinion on this game.
The only thing that is obviously amiss in my opinion, is that A.F. will win this game.
Maybe I'm wrong; won't be the first time or the last time.
Utah st coming off that big win against BYU
I like A.F.
Good luck
I like A.F.
Good luck
There's never a game where 90% of bets or money is on one side. It just doesn't happen, especially with a game like Utah St/Air Force. You can get figures from a lot of different sites, but who's to say which if any are accurate. I just checked a site that has 55% on Utah St., not that I'm taking that as truth. If there was a terrible line available like Oklahoma at a PK against Texas you'd get 90% on one side, but short of that, it isn't happening.
It depends on WHEN you look at the percentage along with the length of your sample range. In other words, the scales of measurement for statistical analysis. Remember you can always manipulate figures with stats. For example, if you look at the % the first day it is posted you could have 1 wager on xyz team and it would be 100% which would be deceiving across
There are probably several ways to determine the nearly accurate %.
Granted the comment about "never a game where 90% of the bets or money is one side" is close to being accurate if all factors across a period of time are evaluated.
There are probably several ways to determine the nearly accurate %.
Granted the comment about "never a game where 90% of the bets or money is one side" is close to being accurate if all factors across a period of time are evaluated.
