2008 Stats - Home Sweep
Below are the 2008 stats. Its pretty self explanatory with the team, how many home games it took them to win after the sweep, and the date of that win. Every play that would have lost on the 2 game chase system is followed by moneylines of each game after the sweep, and the loss accrued if you would have chased for those 2 games (2gc = 2 game chase, and the loss). Notice, as I said in a previous post, last year it was best to wait until AFTER May 1st to start the system as it eliminated 4 losses and only 3 wins (Record 47-7 after May 1st). Its only one year of data, so that probably means nothing.
.............Next win.....Date of....
Team....#of games.....win.......
Col.............1..............4/7
Det.............4.............4/9, -145, -145, -175 (2gc = -500.45)
Pit..............1..............4/11
Was............3..............4/13, +135, +125, +110 (2gc = -155)
Tor.............4..............4/19, -135, -185, -110, -112 (2gc = -569.75)
KC..............1..............4/25
Tex.............3..............4/25, EVEN, -120, -115 (2gc = -340)
NYY.............1..............5/2
KC...............1..............5/11
Fla...............1..............5/12
LAD..............1..............5/19
Min...............1..............5/19
Was..............1..............5/19
Ari................2..............5/31
KC................2..............5/31
SF................3...............6/1, -120, -110, -150 (2gc = -362)
Bal................2..............6/2
SF.................1..............6/16
Sea...............5..............6/17, -132, -200, -140, -105, -155 (2gc = -596)
Was...............2..............6/20
Atl.................2..............6/21
SF..................1..............6/22
Hou................1..............6/24
Fla.................1..............6/27
Cin.................1..............6/30
StL.................1..............6/30
Atl..................1..............7/4
Phi.................1..............7/4
SD.................5...............7/8, -150, -135, -160, -105, -115 (2gc = -487.50)
Det.................1..............7/13
LAD.................1.............7/13
KC..................1..............7/24
Hou................1..............7/28
Atl..................1..............7/31
Bos.................1..............8/1
StL..................2.............8/1
Was................1..............8/1
Cin.................1..............8/4
SF..................1..............8/4
Mil.................2..............8/8
Ari.................1..............8/10
Cin.................2..............8/12
Oak................1..............8/12
Det.................1..............8/14
Atl..................2..............8/16
Pit..................1..............8/18
Tor.................1..............8/19
Was................4..............8/26, +105, -145, +130, +180 (2gc = -378)
Bal.................3..............8/27
Det.................1..............8/29
KC..................1..............9/2
Tex.................2..............9/2
Mil..................2..............9/5
Pit..................4..............9/12, +140, +105, +210, -110 (2gc = -167)
CHC................1..............9/16
Atl..................2..............9/20
Tex.................2..............9/23
Was................1...............9/23
Det.................1...............9/25
SF..................1................9/26
Bal.................3................9/27, +110, EVEN, EVEN (2gc = -282)
I couldn't paste it directly from Excel b/c I simply couldn't get it to format correctly. However, I'm glad I retyped this as it allowed me to check my math. My formula in my excel spreadsheet was off for games where there were negative moneylines in two consecutive games. I think I had one of the negative signs flipped. Either way, LOSSES would actually be -2275 if playing AFTER May 1st on a 2 game chase. You would have won 4700, yielding +2425 for the year.
Thats obviously less than the +3000 I thought it was...and please someone look this over, as I'm sure I'm not mistake free. I had to go through every schedule to find home sweeps, so I'm sure I missed something or got a ML wrong...who knows.
Looking over everything though, this seems like a profitable system that is certainly worthwhile. I will track before and after May 1st and the 2 and 3 game chase theory to see how each does this year. One year of data is obviously not enough to work with. Its impossible to calculate the exact Return on Investment in this system unless someone has the time to find every ML. For 54 series plays (more like 100 actual plays), to make $2425, I think the ROI is there for this to "be worthwhile." I'll keep posting as home sweeps happen. If you have questions, feel free to ask. I'll try to answer them reasonably quick.
