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Afleet Alex has the speed, feel-good story on his side
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- Larry Stumes, Special to The Chronicle
[/font][font=geneva,arial][size=-2]Saturday, May 7, 2005
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Historical trends tell us that each of the 20 horses in today's Kentucky Derby carries a flaw along with the 126-pound combination of jockey and lead weight.
Arkansas Derby winner Afleet Alex stands the best chance of overcoming his in a field that is the strongest in years. Bandini, Bellamy Road, High Fly and Greeley's Galaxy also come off of sharp victories in their final prep races, and Noble Causeway and High Limit offer some upside after second-place finishes.
Afleet Alex's flaw, besides being the Sporting Green's pick, is a second- place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Since the Breeders' Cup began in 1984, no horse that ran first or second in the Juvenile won the Derby. The only third-place Juvenile finishers to win the Derby were Alysheba in 1986-87 and Spend a Buck in 1984-85.
Still, Afleet Alex has six wins and two seconds in nine starts, and a lung infection excuses his last-place finish in the Rebel Stakes. He bounced back from that with an 8-length victory in the Arkansas Derby in which he made the kind of explosive move on the second turn that produces victory in the Kentucky Derby.
He also has a feel-good story that matches those of the past two Derby winners, Smarty Jones and Funny Cide.
Afleet Alex's breeder, John Silverstand, credits the colt with helping keep him alive after he was diagnosed with colon cancer. Afleet Alex's owners are donating part of his winnings to the coincidentally named Alex's Lemonade Stand for Pediatric Cancer Research. The charity is named for Alexandra Scott, who died of cancer Aug. 1 at the age of 8.
The other horses' flaws vary in degree.
Blue Grass blues
Bandini dominated a good field by 6 lengths in the Blue Grass Stakes, but the winner of that race has won the Derby only once since 1979 (Strike the Gold in 1991).
Short on experience
Bellamy Road recorded a Beyer Speed Figure of 120 in his 17 1/2-length victory in the Wood Memorial, the highest ever for a Triple Crown event or one of its preps. In his only other start this year, the George Steinbrenner-owned colt won an allowance race by 15 3/4 lengths. Bellamy Road may well be a freak and validate his favoritism, but he would be only the second horse since 1947 to win the Derby after just two prior starts as a 3-year-old. Sunny's Halo accomplished the feat in 1983, but he had the foundation of 11 starts as a 2- year-old; Bellamy Road had just three.
Greeley's Galaxy romped in the Illinois Derby in his fourth career start, and High Limit has three wins and a second in the Blue Grass in four starts, but no horse since Exterminator in 1918 has won the Derby without at least five races beforehand. Additionally, Greeley's Galaxy didn't race as a 2-year- old, and no horse has won the Derby like that since Apollo in 1882.
Idle time
The Florida Derby, formerly run in early March, was held April 2 this year, and High Fly and Noble Causeway ran 1-2. That was five weeks ago, and no Kentucky Derby winner since Needles in 1956 had more than a four-week gap.
Recent failure
Trainer Nick Zito has Bellamy Road, High Fly and Noble Causeway among his five entrants, but Sun King once was considered his best hope. Then he ran a distant fourth in the Blue Grass, and only two Derby winners since 1957 (Thunder Gulch in 1995 and Sea Hero in 1993) ran that poorly in their previous start.
Going Wild was beaten by 41 lengths in the Wood Memorial and by 16 1/4 lengths in the Lexington Stakes, and no Derby winner ever lost the previous two starts by double-digit lengths.
Too slow The remaining 11 horses in today's field never have reached a Beyer Speed Figure of 100, and they don't appear capable of suddenly jumping up to the 110 that has been the average winning Derby Beyer. Only Sea Hero in 1993 won the Derby without previously recording a triple-digit Beyer, and he faced horses much slower than today's major contenders.
San Francisco Chronicle