AFL - Columbus +8

[olddog]

This pick is based purely on my perceived mind-sets of each team. LV got knocked out of the play-off hunt last Sunday in an emotional 3-point loss at LA. They had won 4 games in a row to position themselves for a trip to the play-offs if they won out. Also, they had a legit shot at winning the championship w/ very good QB-Dolozel and a steadily improving defense. They beat #1 San Jose (44-35). Now they are out. They have got to be emotionally drained.

On the other hand Columbus has been out of the play-off picture for some time, but are playing well (won 3 of last 4 games). QB-Vena has shown steady improvement this year.

LV is clearly the superior team, but I just don't see them having anything left in the tank.

 

[been_there]

GL olddog,

I'm more involved in this game this week than any other, although I played it over.I maded the game 7/109, Columbus plays no D' and has been putting up points,I'm hoping both teams come out and try to put on an offensive show...
Arena's a tougher game to beat right now,the lines are better,and you have to be careful as a lot of teams eliminated,coaches are experimenting,etc...
I can't make any big plays until the playoffs,but here's the rest of my card, if anything matches and you think its worth a play,let me know..

Det@GrR I made Det 2.5,looking to only play the Det side.Even though they've been playing horrible, GrR only win this year came against Det in Det,thinking maybe a revenge spot for Det.Also, GrR OS Steve Smith sat out last week and will sit again this week as he is IL, I made a small play to the under....

Car@Ga Made Ga 2.5/95, Ga playing better since they fired the coach a few weeks ago,but not enough value, passing

Ariz@SJ I made SJ 6/104, we just won a play on Ariz as home dog against SJ 2 weeks ago...Now that Ariz is in playoffs,they may rest some guys.SJ has been resting players also...crapshoot,pass game

Orl@LA passing,I have something I'm looking at for 2nd half if 1st half runs true to form,will post at half time if worth a play

Chi@Col Made Col 3/96, Col has made the playoffs,they would like home field advantage for their 1st playoff game..Too many things depend on other teams,although they do need to win this week..Chi locked up top of division,could also get an extra home game by winning...Tough field for road teams this year in Col...Only team they lost to was Ind 45-42 in OT...making small play Col pk

Phl@NY Ny 10 /99 ..Had this game marked for awhile,just too much wood for me to lay though...thought about NY ML,going to be too high for me...maybe tease them,can't find another team to tease with...NY bringing their A-game,even though they clinched their division,my understanding is they still need to win or could miss playoffs...also,Phl beat them at buzzer with like a 60 yd FG as time expired a month back...Phl coach experimenting,said he was going to last week,boy did he...Cut Browder,benched Browders replacement,brought in new QB

Aus@NO Made NO 2/94, Aus has a slim shot of making playoffs,but still alive,need to win here..usually in other sports don't play on team needing to win,they usually suck..aus though has a little revenge factor here getting beat at buzzer by NO a month ago...early in season,wouldn't play against NO,they aren't playing as good now...I played Aus + 4

TB@Dall I was looking to play TB side, made TB 3.5/96,game opened 4 is now 5,outpriced me,made small play under

GL

 

[daringly]

Are you sure LV is eliminated from the playoffs? If:
1. LV wins,
2. TB loses,
3. NY loses,
4. Austin loses

You have a 5-way tie for the 8th position. Indiana had the best divisional record, but didn't win its division. Ergo, they will the worst record against "common opponents", and have already been declared eliminated by Arenafootball.com.

Dolezel does nasty things to soft defenses. I make the game 55-48 for LV. A slight lean for LV, but not enough to play.

 

[olddog]

You are correct, Daringly.

Earlier in the week I went by two articles that said LV was out, both saying: "Loss ends Vegas' shot at playoffs
By Adam Candee
<candee@lasvegassun.com>
LAS VEGAS SUN-Here lie the Las Vegas Gladiators, a season full of promise buried beneath a heaping mound of dirt they shoveled atop their own grave before vainly trying to shoot a hand to the surface.

Saturday night's 54-51 loss to Los Angeles at Staples Center ended the Gladiators' desperate push for the Arena Football League postseason, a playoff drive both gallant in its heart and overly ambitious in its call for six weeks of perfection after two months of mediocrity."

But, now I see LV has a mathematical shot based pretty much on your scenario. "With a win, the Gladiators could slide into the playoffs with immense and unlikely help from other teams. The main dominoes would have to fall like this: Los Angeles (9-6) must win against Orlando (9-6), while Austin (8-7), New York (8-7) and Tampa Bay (8-7) all must lose."

I still like Columbus plus the points as I just don't think LV can get back up for this game after 5 weeks of emotion draining must-win games, but I sure don't like the pick as much as I did before.

been_there: for what its worth, I like TB -3 (-116 @ Pinny), Orl +3, and Colorado at home. I feel pretty good about a teaser on NY to Orl and/or Colorado. Pinny has 9-pointers for only -120.

I feel the lines on AFL have gotten much sharper this year.

 

[been_there]

Dare,

Thats a nice find....I was in the same position as olddog,I believed what I read in the LV journal...FWIW,I'm still playing over, Clb no D', but I do like to have all the facts available in case I missed something...
You couldn't have broke me, but you could have won a couple of ham sandwiches if you came here trying to make a bet...I would have bet you,thinking the print guy knew what he was typing...

TY
GL

 

[daringly]

Be careful playing totals... They are much more difficult to beat than Arena sides. That said, sides got tougher this year as well. You can no longer count on hitting 57%+ playing the best dogs.

To be fair, I should repeat the disclaimer I posted on SSB. I'm a linesman for an online sportsbook, so take anything I take with a grain of salt.

Hope you enjoyed the 9-pt teasers this year - my guess is they'll be 8.5 or 8 next year