Adjusting baseball totals

[CharlieMaxwell]

The current baseball campaign has brought the gradual emergence of a new betting option. While one must always be careful not to jump into new opportunities to bet with two fists of cash, more options usually means an advantage.

Read the rest of Wild Bill's latest article about a new 'over/under' betting option by going to the RX home page at www.therx.com

Charlie

 

[wilheim]

I like to move off 8.5 up to 9 when betting unders, which makes 10 the number that will beat you. Maybe it's me, but when I do that I can pull the trigger on an under with a lot more confidence, and actually handicap better. I know that sounds a bit strange, but by say to myself - "will a particular game stay under 10 instead of 9" gives me a clearer picture, most likely because of the extra room for error. I throw out a lot of totals because IMO the line is just to tight. Anyway this new totals option has been so far so good.


wil...

 

[lander]

Wil,
That is a great strategy - the 9 is by far the most common number in MLB.

It's like the 3 in football.

 

[Woody0]

I think this is the greatest development in baseball betting this year. Bet365 has had this totals option for some time but their lines are hardly worth shouting about.

Not mentioned in the article is the half point option on 5 innings betting, which also increases opportunity.

 

[Fezzik]

The good news is that Wild Bill brings up a great point, if there is a huge favorite, then the chance a game lands "odd" is less than that of an overall game.

Having said that, the betting advice being given is not good. In general, baseball bettors are always willing to pay too much to buy on/off numbers.

Under 8.5 EV or under 9 -127? Paying the extra 27 cents is a sucker play, one that the square sharps got caught in over and over.

Typically, when betting totals, the best number to play is the WORST total with the best vig. It makes sense. Scared bettors pay extra for the insurance. People prefer under 10 -120 to under 9.5 EV, and it is a terrible mistake to bet this way.

 

[Horseshoe]

Amen to that point Fezzik, the wasted pennies will more than make up the bad landings in the long haul, even for the action-junkies that play the board..it justs those scarring days when so many games seemingly "fall" wrong, that make people want to lay the premium.

 

[BillDozer]

Buying off the number is usually a bad investment. Most people calculate the value by looking at the cost of the half point from the current price at that book. If we do serious line shopping the cost for the half is actually much more when you look at the best price we could have had on the common total.

You can't make a blanket statement about these things because sometimes there may be value. It’s usually not a good idea for the same reasons its usually not of value to parlay. You usually can't parlay all the best numbers. If you go into the day planning on buying off all your 8.5s you are going to lose on the math.

 

[WildBill]

Sorry guys, but I only get so many words an article to write and maybe I didn't make the point clear enough that this is a strategy to be used on occasion. I don't get a strong feel for one run game or blowout one very game and therefore don't move the lines that often. I don't suggest to anyone to ever treat moving the line as something to do as a rule.

Today's game in Minnesota was a great example of where it worked out for me, but of course there are more times I am just laying extra juice for no actual benefit. I saw the possibility of a pitching duel with two top starters and an almost even line, but had an 'over' umpire and two teams that I thought could get some runs. The number was 7.5 just about everywhere, but in the feeling that this had the feel of a one-run game I moved it to 7 and ended up saving myself a loss, which I laid 26 cents extra juice for. Moving off of 7.5 to 7 and paying 26 cents for the privilege isn't an exorbitant fee. Moving off of 9 and paying 26 cents might be depending on the exact situation, but on a total of 7 the extra half-runs are worth quite a bit more. I played 12 totals this weekend and this was the only one that I moved the total from the prevailing number, so it isn't a habit of mine to move the number.

I still stand by the fact that if you are a solid capper, then extra options can only help you, not hurt you. You guys write like I would do this on every game, but that was never the intention of this article so sorry if anyone took it that way. Note my last sentence, "I advise people who haven't thought these through to take some time and see where they might fit into your betting arsenal." Nothing more, nothing less. I certainly don't advise people to change their winning ways, just look at the possibilities and sparingly use it in situations where it might make sense to add a little insurance or take a little extra value. Just like teasers, they are unwise to play in most cases, but with the right combinations of favorable "key" numbers covered in probable low-scoring matchups, they can occasionally make sense.

 

[wilheim]

I have to agree with that, I am very much an anti-juice player, but this new option can be used in certain situations. There are actually times when I have moved a half run against me to play for plus juice at the expense of the half run. Unfortunately there are only a couple of games tomorrow and no examples available of a game I might use the new total adjustment option with. Maybe on Tuesday something will look useable.

wil.

 

[Fezzik]

Wild Bill, excellent response, but paying 26 cents to get on/off 7 is just good basic betting strategy as the 7 is worth around 27 cents in general, and obviously likely worth at least a penny or two more in an expected very close contest.

On the 9, where the 1/2 is worth in general only 22 cents or so, it would be much rarer to find value.

 

[BillDozer]

I was more replying to the general comments that started this thread than to the article.

My point was that if IIS happened to be 2 cents less than the original price at Pin for the same number you are actually paying 28 cents. 2 cent penalty for the ability to move the number.

What books offer this so far?

good thread.

 

[wilheim]

I'm pretty sure there are others but right now I know that Pinnacle, 5 Dimes, Bet365 and Hollywood offer some versions of baseball total adjustment betting.


wil.

 

[barman]

It would seem reasonable to ask if a new offering would

A) Increase the odds for the Book, if even slightly...or

B) Increase the odds for the Player, if even slightly

Maybe I'm cynical, but unless a Book is having trouble attracting enough business, A would be the most likely answer for most scenarios.

 

[FatTony]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>I'm pretty sure there are others but right now I know that Pinnacle, 5 Dimes, Bet365 and Hollywood offer some versions of baseball total adjustment betting.


wil. <HR></BLOCKQUOTE>


Any others?