Hey guys...
I still haven't seen anyone post reasons for backing uconn in this game...in my humble opinion the books are begging you to take uconn in this game and that is the reason for the 3 plus the hook.
The huskies are not a bad team but it must be considered that they hailed from a weak and watered down Big East conference, Toledo comes from a much stronger MAC conference that features teams like Mia-Oh, Marshall, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois, those of you that do not follow or have not followed the MAC conference have missed out with regard to this being a very competitive conference that has won more than their share of games against non-conference opponents in the past.
Toledo's head coach Tom Amstutz has a BIG edge over uconn head coach Randy Edsall in terms of overall coaching experience as well as the all important experience of getting a team ready to play a Bowl game, most do not realize all of the distractions that take place during Bowl week and how this relates to having "Been there, done that"....edge Toledo.
One of the most over looked aspects of handicapping is the playing surface, this game will take place on artificial turf in domed stadium, once again this edge goes to Toledo as their home games are played on art turf and as mentioned already Toledo won the MAC Championship game on this same field in their last game, uconn plays their home games on grass....edge Toledo.
The offensive lines of Toledo and unconn are about the same size and both units have allowed 15 sacks this season, but once again Toledo rates the edge because their offensive line is used to planting and blocking on turf, Toledo rates a big edge with their defensive line which is much more athletic and out weighs uconn's d-line by an average of 25 pounds per man, thus in a match up of O-line versus D-line Toledo should be able to wear down uconn's offensive line and get to the QB....edge Toledo.
In that all important position of quarterback Toledo rates the edge with QB Bruce Gradkowski who has a completion rate of 71% and a TD to INT ratio of 27-8 versus uconn QB Dan Orlovsky who has completed 64% of his passes with a TD to INT ratio of 21-14, but the big edge of being able to tuck the ball and run goes to Toledo QB Gradkowski who has rushed for 329 yards versus Orlovsky who has 79 rushing yards on the season, this means that Gradkowski has the ability to make first downs with this feet on busted plays...edge Toledo.
And last but not least, when handicapping games between teams that do not normally play against one another, you have to look at each teams place kicker, once again Toledo holds the edge with Jason Robbins who has made 8 of 9 FG attempts this season and also made 54 of 55 extra point kicks, uconn kicker Matt Nuzie only made 16 of 23 FG attempts this year and is TERRIBLE from long range having only gone 3 of 7 from 40 plus yards....edge Toledo.
I might be totally off in my handicapping of this game and things may go totally the other way, god knows it won't be the first time, and I am well aware that we can rate edges out the wha-zuu only to have fluke plays and turnovers make all the difference....but as stated earlier...I'm on Toledo.
Good luck to all and have a nice New Year!!
Deb
I still haven't seen anyone post reasons for backing uconn in this game...in my humble opinion the books are begging you to take uconn in this game and that is the reason for the 3 plus the hook.
The huskies are not a bad team but it must be considered that they hailed from a weak and watered down Big East conference, Toledo comes from a much stronger MAC conference that features teams like Mia-Oh, Marshall, Bowling Green and Northern Illinois, those of you that do not follow or have not followed the MAC conference have missed out with regard to this being a very competitive conference that has won more than their share of games against non-conference opponents in the past.
Toledo's head coach Tom Amstutz has a BIG edge over uconn head coach Randy Edsall in terms of overall coaching experience as well as the all important experience of getting a team ready to play a Bowl game, most do not realize all of the distractions that take place during Bowl week and how this relates to having "Been there, done that"....edge Toledo.
One of the most over looked aspects of handicapping is the playing surface, this game will take place on artificial turf in domed stadium, once again this edge goes to Toledo as their home games are played on art turf and as mentioned already Toledo won the MAC Championship game on this same field in their last game, uconn plays their home games on grass....edge Toledo.
The offensive lines of Toledo and unconn are about the same size and both units have allowed 15 sacks this season, but once again Toledo rates the edge because their offensive line is used to planting and blocking on turf, Toledo rates a big edge with their defensive line which is much more athletic and out weighs uconn's d-line by an average of 25 pounds per man, thus in a match up of O-line versus D-line Toledo should be able to wear down uconn's offensive line and get to the QB....edge Toledo.
In that all important position of quarterback Toledo rates the edge with QB Bruce Gradkowski who has a completion rate of 71% and a TD to INT ratio of 27-8 versus uconn QB Dan Orlovsky who has completed 64% of his passes with a TD to INT ratio of 21-14, but the big edge of being able to tuck the ball and run goes to Toledo QB Gradkowski who has rushed for 329 yards versus Orlovsky who has 79 rushing yards on the season, this means that Gradkowski has the ability to make first downs with this feet on busted plays...edge Toledo.
And last but not least, when handicapping games between teams that do not normally play against one another, you have to look at each teams place kicker, once again Toledo holds the edge with Jason Robbins who has made 8 of 9 FG attempts this season and also made 54 of 55 extra point kicks, uconn kicker Matt Nuzie only made 16 of 23 FG attempts this year and is TERRIBLE from long range having only gone 3 of 7 from 40 plus yards....edge Toledo.
I might be totally off in my handicapping of this game and things may go totally the other way, god knows it won't be the first time, and I am well aware that we can rate edges out the wha-zuu only to have fluke plays and turnovers make all the difference....but as stated earlier...I'm on Toledo.
Good luck to all and have a nice New Year!!
Deb
Deb12 said:
<CENTER>Sides (ATS)</CENTER><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 width=490 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#000000><TD><SMALL>Date</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Rot</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Away</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Picks</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Pct</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Line</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Home</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Picks</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Pct</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL> </SMALL></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD><SMALL>12/27/04</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>395</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Connecticut</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>152</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>29.23%</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>+4</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Toledo</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>368</SMALL></TD><TD bgColor=#ccffcc><SMALL>70.77%</SMALL></TD><TD><SMALL>Detail</SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Ahhhhhhhh okay...
Are you trying to show me that you found a +4 out there? That's really not surprising, I use five different sports book in order to do my line shopping, four of the five have the line at Toledo -3.5 and only one had it at Toledo -4....not that is at -110 odds, you can of course pay the extra juice for the extra half point just like you can do on any other game.
If you like uconn take the +4, on the other hand if you like Toledo -3.5 all you've gotta do is line shop.
Good luck on what ever you do!
Deb
Are you trying to show me that you found a +4 out there? That's really not surprising, I use five different sports book in order to do my line shopping, four of the five have the line at Toledo -3.5 and only one had it at Toledo -4....not that is at -110 odds, you can of course pay the extra juice for the extra half point just like you can do on any other game.
If you like uconn take the +4, on the other hand if you like Toledo -3.5 all you've gotta do is line shop.
Good luck on what ever you do!
Deb
I'm at a loss on this game. Toledo has won for me this year time and again. I think they are a good team with a lot of heart. I want to take them, but their starting tailback is out and Orlovsky shreds bad pass defenses and Toledo's pass defense is 116th.
I would appreciate comments from any of you that are going with Toledo regarding why these facts do or don't concern you.
Thanks.
I would appreciate comments from any of you that are going with Toledo regarding why these facts do or don't concern you.
Thanks.
Ace,
Hey ace, can you please give me a hint of what you are up to, or what kind of info you possess. I am about to go to the bookie and i want to be more sure because i am about to buy some of the bookies out in this town and place big bets all over, but please let me know a little. If you want you can email me. I kinda lost a lot from your football bets this week, but i understand everybody has bad weeks and im there with you but this bet following that week. please let me knoe.
thanks
ipentahuk
Hey ace, can you please give me a hint of what you are up to, or what kind of info you possess. I am about to go to the bookie and i want to be more sure because i am about to buy some of the bookies out in this town and place big bets all over, but please let me know a little. If you want you can email me. I kinda lost a lot from your football bets this week, but i understand everybody has bad weeks and im there with you but this bet following that week. please let me knoe.
thanks
ipentahuk
T-Bone
Toledo also beat Miami-OH for the MAC championship 35-27. Miami-OH had the #1 defense in the MAC (158 PA).
Again....I'm not telling anyone to bet Toledo.....it's called gambling for a reason....unless the "fix" is in.
ACE claims he has some insider info he can't share.
I can see the logic in chosing UCONN, but I think Toledo is the better team.
When ACE bet's NFL he always stressed....don't bet on a team that you don't think can win "straight-up".
Do you think UCONN can win straight-up?
Toledo also beat Miami-OH for the MAC championship 35-27. Miami-OH had the #1 defense in the MAC (158 PA).
Again....I'm not telling anyone to bet Toledo.....it's called gambling for a reason....unless the "fix" is in.
ACE claims he has some insider info he can't share.
I can see the logic in chosing UCONN, but I think Toledo is the better team.
When ACE bet's NFL he always stressed....don't bet on a team that you don't think can win "straight-up".
Do you think UCONN can win straight-up?
