ACC Week 4

[jimmyshivers]

10-12 -7.6 units

Finally had a winning week, and right now were taking them however small they may be. Going to keep the units a little tighter until I get a better handle on this and my reads start going more my way. As we get into conference play I think my advantage grows so I'm going to try to get my mindset right over the next 2 weeks.

*** Texas Christian University Horned Frogs +3

Really happy to get the field goal in this game right here. I've been really unimpressed with the Tigers so far, and even though they are 3-0 ATS they have been plagued by some really uneven performances, especially on the offensive end of the field. Clemson was unable to score any offensive TD's last week, and of their 7 TD's this season only 4 are offensive (with 1 being shorter than 33 yards). In short, its a team that has had a difficult time moving the football consistently. Their offense relies heavily on CJ Spiller, who is banged up this week, and though he will likely go on Saturday, is unlikely to be @ 100 percent (Toe injuries are tough for speed guys). TCU is always a strong defensive unit under coach Patterson and so far this year has held their two opponents to 1.5 ypc.

Clemson has done a great job defensively this year, but they have yet to face a QB that can really hurt them. While I like the Dasher kid from MTS they were outmanned all over the field and we all know how GT is very one-dimensional in their offense. The BC team never got their offense going and were anemic in the ability to provide any kind of protection for their backfield to work. TCU bring into town a solid offense that likes to predominantly run the ball with a steady mix of passing game. QB Dalton is the most dangerous QB Clemson faces until they go to Miami and as a dual threat QB he should be able to keep the athletic Tiger D off balance.

This is a good situation IMO because we have a good, yet untested TCU team coming west to face a BCS team that has high expectations this year. TCU handled one ACC team already and they are looking for their only opportunity to get a quality OOC win in what is yet another BCS-buster campaign for the Horned Frogs. We have a dog here who generally excels at controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the field and that has the more experienced (and I would argue better) coaching staff.

I see this being a low scoring affair as well and will take a look at the under later in the week. Clemson has major issues on Offense and I'm not convinced in the Horned Frogs ability to score points either..

 

[indiana]

Jimmy........

thank you ....bol this week

indy

 

[johnboland]

I made the most of your UNC -3 call last week and even though Tarheels covered -7, in the big scheme of things, I thought your pregame preview was spot on. Continue your very informative work because it very much appreciated by ACC fans. Will be looking foward to reading your NC/GT write up.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Indiana,


Thanks for the support, think this is a good spot here. Wrong team favored?

John,

I think if we put ourselves in the right spot more often than not we are going to get the cover. Carolina needed a late TD (aided by a terrible call on roughing the passer) to get the cover. I think ECU covers that game 6 out of 10 times in that situation...

** Miami / Virginia Tech Under 47.5

In what appears to be the marquee game of the young ACC Season, I expect Defenses to reign supreme. Miami has looked fantastic on offense, but it was against a very young FSU pass rush and a non-existent GT one. I look for Foster to bring a variety of blitz packages here so that they can get into the Cane backfield and try to disrupt the rhythm of the young QB. Miami looked good running the ball against GT but the Jacket front 7 is undersized and was pushed around the field all day. VT has a stronger D-line and should be able to hold their own against the Cane D-Line.

I thought the Hokies did a fantastic job in bottling up Zac Lee last week and will have to bring a similar effort against a Hurricane offense that has quickly gained momentum this year as the Canes have surged into the Top 10. This is a classic Lunch Pail game for the Hokie D IMO and the kind of game that this defense has thrived upon. They aren't getting any respect here @ Home and I expect the Defense to give Harris and Co their toughest challenge yet.

What has me hesitant on a play on the Hokies and looking more at the total here is the struggles of the VT offense. Tryod Taylor continues to be a sub-50 percent passer, and I think that Miami will crib heavily from the Bama and Nebraska game plan and blitz heavily. VT is allowing 4 sacks a game and this defense is very athletic and will be in the backfield a lot in this game. They have run the ball well at nearly 5 ypc but Miami will be able to sell out here and force Taylor to make smart decisions, which he has yet to prove he can do on a consistent basis.

I think were getting an inflated total here because of the success of the Miami offense up until now. This IMO is a tough spot for the Canes, both situationally and schematically. Miami has struggled in the kicking game mightily this year but it hasnt cost them yet this year as the offense has made up for it. The struggling offense in this game (VT) should have good field position all day, and it will lead to the team that would turn this game into a shoot-out having to drive the ball the length of the field against a tough D. I think this helps us keep it under the number here.

VT 23
Miami 17

 

[What'sthegoodword]

BOL Jimmy....I agree with some of your points on the TCU-Clemson game, but I don't like the pick. I am a Clemson fan, and I may not bet the game, but I do know that if the offense can start clicking a little, we could be dangerous. It was very frustrating last week to see us settle for 6 FG's. But, it was promising actually seeing a kicker kick 6 FG's, and be consistent, something we have lacked for years.

I am still working on breaking down TCU some more, before I decide whether to play it or not. So, maybe I don't play it, and we will win by 2, and we'll all be happy!

BOL!

GW

 

[jimmyshivers]

GW,

Thats exactly my point though. We haven't seen anything consistent from Clemson (granted the big play has been nice) and this is a Defense that is going to turn this into a physical game. If Clemson doesn't get better QB play I feel like they might get ran off the field here. I think that the TCU offense vs the Clemson defense might be a wash or a slight advantage to the Tigers, but IMO the TCU defense has a major advantage over the offense of Clemson, as well as essentially having an extra week to begin game preparations with Texas State being the game last week. All the same, BOL to you and your boys this week.

 

[jimmyshivers]

** North Carolina Tar Heels +3

Watching the GT-Miami game last week showed me something very troubling with this Jacket team. We knew they couldn't throw the ball, so when they fell behind early it was apparent that they were going to be in trouble. What scared me about this Tech team was their struggle to generate any pressure on the Miami backfield and the way that Miami was able to control the LOS. And like the Clemson game, when the Hurricanes looked for the big play it was their all day. Coach Johnson has put most the blame on this on assignment confusion relating to a 4-2-5 defense and has scrapped it in favor of an easier to manage 4-3 defense. GT wants to simplify their defense so guys can focus on playing on instinctually instead of trying to figure out where to be.

The problem with this is that it's tough to forget all of this in just 1 week. GT struggled in the passing game even with 5 D-backs (250 ypg on 61 percent completion percentage so far), so even though they should be more physical now up fron their passing D is suspect. In watching the UNC-ECU game I was impressed with the confidence that Yates showed in the pocket. It was the best he had looked since getting hurt last season, and the coaching staff feels he is coming around and are trusting him to do more with the ball. The GT defense has been exploited so far by the faster offenses of Clemson and Miami and though Carolina is a bit unproven on offense they do have athletes all over the field. At this point I think UNC is further along than GT on this side of the ball and I would have to give the advantage to the Heels.

Defensively Carolina is a defense with a big, strong D-line and athletic linebackers (to wit, the Heels are only allowing a stout 1.5 ypc so far). Like everyone else this season they are going to cheat up and stack the box against the Jackets. Guys like Austin excel at clogging the middle of the line and getting off of blocks. Their LB's are especially athletic and will be disciplined in staying in the running lanes (like last year, where most of these same defensive players did a great job in keeping the Jacket offense out of the end zone). I believe that Miami exposed something in the Jacket offense and the Heels will be cribbing heavily from the Canes (and Tigers) defensive plans.

I think Carolina has definite advantages on both sides of the field so I'm happy to take the points here. I feel like this is a GT team that is struggling right now and this is a difficult match-up for them to get back on track. They will be fine this season but IMO this is not the game for the Jackets to get back on track. Carolina by 6..

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on TCU and UNC jimmy...GL...

 

[johnboland]

If you are correct in your preview JS, than UNC has a chance to win for the first time in Atlanta at Bobby Dodd Stadium since 1997 and break Georgia Tech's stranglehold on the series in winning 9 out of the last 11. (Source: CBS Sports).

 

[GoForIt]

BOL this week Jimmy on your other plays, but I'm playing your favorite team (from a fan standpoint) It's Wilson time -1

 

[jimmyshivers]

pags,

Would much rather be with you than against you, BOL to you in your other plays this weekend.

John,

Thats b/c GT is usually solid and Carolina is coming out of a shitty streak of coaches in Torbush and Bunting. This is probably Carolinas best team since Brown was coaching and I think there defense may be as strong as some of those Brown-led teams as well. Lots of future pros on this unit..

Go,

Haven't really looked at that game yet but I hope you have the right side. I'm still considering adding this game to my card. My thought on this NCS team is that they win here and lose next week @ WF. IF BC beats Wake and State beats Pitt I will likely have a big play on the Deacs the following week. BOL to you as well..

 

[HOGLEGGER]

GT is gonna crush UNC. UNC is not as good as everyone thinks. GT will come out pissed and beat UNC by 14.

 

[substyle]

You posted ** on a total of 40 and a play on u 47.5 effectively saying the line is off 7.5 pts. Your total has VT winning by 6 yet you could get 2.5 or 3 so that would be 8.5 or 9 pts. line off. Why no play on VT?

 

[jimmyshivers]

Hoglegger,

In my eyes GT is the one who may be overrated. They haven't shown any kind of defensive intensity yet and the faster defenses they have faced have done a great job in shutting down their option offense (Clemson and Miami). In my eyes Carolina is at least as athletic and deep on D as those two teams and with GT switching defenses I expect even more defensive confusion here.


Substyle,

I see what your saying but thats the side at the moment that I feel more comfortable with. The home team here strategically is going to play this game in a way that trends towards the under (heavy running and field position, high defensive pressure). While I do lean to the Hokies I think the higher percentage play here is on the total. BOL to you if you take the Hokies; if I do anything there it will be a small bite on the ML..

 

[AlwaysKeen]

:toast:

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Jimmy I would like to see your personal ACC power rankings, GL this week bud

 

[jimmyshivers]

VOR: I don't use any kind of computer ranking system so this won't be very scientific, but just my estimates of where everyone is at right now:


1. Canes
2. Hokies
3. Noles
4. Heels
5. Tigers
6. Ramblin Wreck
7. Pack
8. Deacs
9. Eagles
10. Terps
11. Wahoos
12. Terps

This was all off the top of my head so I will try and go into more detail when I get home tonight.

 

[jimmyshivers]

To elaborate, I am seeing a ton of parity in the conference again, as everyone has flaws. No one will run the table and once again there won't be an ACC team in the Title hunt this year. Think Miami sets up potentially nicely for next year but they aren't ready yet.:

1. Miami - Not sold that they are the best team, but the most impressive so far. Need to see a strong effort this weekend in a hostile environment (with the national spotlight all over them) before I will be sold.

2. Va Tech - Hokies have strong running game and good defense but need to show some improvement in both their run-defense and passing offense. Taylor has not developed like they hoped he would and this team is hamstrung by him until them.

3. FSU - think this might be the best offense in the conference if they can get more consistent running game play but we need to see more consistent defensive effort before they can climb the ladder.

4. Heels - a dominant offense and a talented yet young offense has them @ 4. By the end of the season if the offense comes around this team is going to be capable of beating anyone they play. Until the offense (and the line in particular) comes around they will struggle with the more dynamic teams.

5. Clemson - Think we definitely start to see a drop off here. Tigers have very strong D and some serious speed on offense but the Line is looking a little shakey and the QB play has been underwhelming so far. If parker grows into the offense they will be very scary in november but right now they are missing something.


6. GT - This team got it done last year with the option and a defense that could put them in good field position. This year the O isnt providing big plays and the defense has not given them the ability to control games. There making some changes this week and I'll be interested to see the demeanor in the game with Carolina this weekend.

7. NCS - I put them here because we don't know shit about them yet. Need to see better line play and receivers who can catch a ball. Think they will be fine but we'll know a lot more about the after Saturday.

8. Wake - Don't think the D is good enough to support this mediocre offense. There better than the bottom 4 because of experience and game planning. Skinner is very average and if the defense doesn't give them the field position that they usually do every year they will struggle to score points.

9. BC - Another big drop-off here. BC isn't going anywhere this season but the D is going to keep them in some games. The offense is terrible right now.

10. Duke - Improving but still bad. Another building year for the Devils

11. :howdy: Goodbye Al

12. :howdy: Goodbye Ralph.

 

[jimmyshivers]

* Virginia Tech Hokies ML +125

Been thinking about doing this one for a while, and seeing the 2 DT's being out for Miami has solidified it for me. Said most of what I think about this game above but in my mind it compares very heavily to the Miss-USC game tonight. Suddenly highly ranked team going on the road to a good team and laying points. I think Miami is the better team here but its a bad spot and I don't believe there ready to win this kind of game. Wrong team favored IMO..

 

[jimmyshivers]

* South Florida Bulls +14

Let down spot here for the Noles. Offense looked real good last week but the defense got some breaks early and BYU was not sharp. FSU lately hasn't had the program discipline to come out and win this kind of game and cover the number. USF lost their QB but Daniels the back-up is an athlete as well (and hes a home-town kid here in Tallahassee) and often after a big injury teams rally around the new guy and play inspired. IMO USF has athletes all over and is actually a better match-up for FSU than BYU was. Its also a little-brother situation for the Bulls as many of these guys are from in-state and will be fired up to go after one of the big-time Florida schools. FSU has the talent to cover this line but my experience with this progam tells me they lay a mini-egg here and win a close game in a rather large let down spot for this undisciplined team.