ACC Wednesday

[jimmyshivers]

94-82-4 +15.7 units

2-2-1 last night but I hit the big one to pick up a couple of units. So far only one jumps out at me and it is...

***** Boston College Eagles +3

As a State fan I can honestly say that I feel this team is done and will likely be fade material the rest of the way. They made a nice run for about the last month but last Sunday night it was evident that the close loss at Wake Forest took all the wind out of their sails. State looked sluggish offensively and struggled to get guys to move without the ball. Maryland's transition game was way too much for the Pack and their lackluster defense finally bit them in the ass @ home.

The problem for State in a team like BC is that they have no defense for a guard like Ty Rice who can penetrate and create the offense all by himself. Guys like Vasquez, Douglas McClinton and Lawson have killed this team all season because they are able to exploit the slow footed State guards. I like the way that BC has improved in the low post and it is going to be a big factor in this game. State has a nice low post offensive player in Simon Harris but they don't get good rebounding and this is going to provide BC with alot of 2nd chance baskets. Teams are shooting 48% against the Pack AND winning the rebounding battle over the last 5 games. To me this speaks of a team that plays lazy defense on the ball and doesnt finish plays off defensively (opponents averaging nearly 10 offensive rebounds per game).

It is senior night in Raleigh, but it will not be an emotional night. The seniors McCauley Fells and Harris are not leaders at all and have faded from their expected roles this season down the stretch. Lowe is trying to build this team to run and these are not his kind of players. I don't expect anyone on this team to be especially motiviated to win this game for these guys.

Will be @ this game, and ready to drive the Srs to the airport after it is over. Cannot get rid of these guys fast enough. I think BC has alot more to play for in this spot and it appears that State is playing out the string. I wouldn't be heartbroken if I am wrong here but I would not be suprised by a DD BC victory. Looking at the under as well..

 

[knucklecup]

Love seeing you on my Eagles.

Solid day yesterday..

 

[IEatTheRich]

You are so on the right track. Excellent write up.

 

[THEDIRTYHUSTLER]

Thanks for the big winner yesterday! I will tail you on this one.............BOL to us Jimmy!

 

[dayang23]

Nice win today, and I love your write-ups, always helps me if I'm on the edge on a game, thanks for all you do!

 

[coitus_maximus]

Agree with you on this one. Wow!! I thought NC STate would
get points Against BC

 

[jimmyshivers]

** NCS/ BC U 146

Just don't think State will play well offensively in this game and it should dictate the pace. Think this is a 73-65 kind of BC win..

 

[maxh1re]

Jimmy, any thoughts as to why Miami dropped to -2.5?

 

[jimmyshivers]

just saw that max, havent had time to look into it but I will check it out and let you know if i find anything

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I was looking at BC, but don't trust them on the road.

Any thoughts on VT vs. UNC? I like VT.

 

[The Iz]

I'm going with BC also.

 

[G.MONEY]

Best of luck Jimmy

 

[IEatTheRich]

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the BC Eagles haven't played since Feb. 24th! Talk about a rested groups of kids. I'm loving this play more and more. If this line stays at +2, I'm buying.

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Virginia Tech / North Carolina O 161
** Virginia Tech +9.5

Really expect the Hokies to try to play with Carolina here and that means lots of open looks at the rim for both teams. VT tried to play at a higher pace against Duke last Saturday but the Devils played some tough defense and ran the shot clock all the way down towards the end of the game. Carolina will not try to do either as they are gearing up for the stretch run, and I think for them it means really trying to kick the offense into high gear. People thought Carolina would have a new found commitment to defense after the loss to Maryalnd, and the following GT game resulted in nearly 180 points. I think both teams will also be able to find the foul line here, as VT plays physical at both ends and likes to attack the rim. Both teams are averaging over 20 FT attemps in their last 5 games, so if these numbers are duplicated, we should hit our total fairly easy imo.


As far as the spread I have to take a hungry team like VT getting nearly DD @ home on senior night. Look ahead spot for Carolina as they will be playing for a 1 seed in the acc tournament and an ACC regular season title @ home against Duke on Sunday. VT will have some nice home court advantage tonight as after the Duke debacle on Saturday, the fans at Cassel Coliseum will be out for blood. VT will be playing with a lot of desperation here as they likely need this game to get into the tourney. I don’t think they get it, but they have a more than decent shot of keeping it close.

 

[papicker]

wow jimmy really steppin up for the end of the year in units i see. you will still bet on games with acc teams in the ncaa tourney and nit correct?

 

[papicker]

im actually goin to the marquette pitt game so ill miss the unc tech game, first game i have went to this year, i am going to the nec championship if robert morris hosts it next week.

 

[jimmyshivers]

wow jimmy really steppin up for the end of the year in units i see. you will still bet on games with acc teams in the ncaa tourney and nit correct?

I've always had the philosophy that by the end of the year I know the teams even better and which spots are good and bad ones for each team. So i bet a little harder towards the end. Also the last 3 weeks or so have been my best stretch, units wise, of the season, so I like to play a little bigger while I am seeing things well.

As far as the tourneys go I will still be making bets on ACC teams, but since I'm not as comfortable with the other conferences I usually make plays based solely on what I can tell of the matchups and whether or not to fade or play on a certain team. For example, I will probably fade Duke until they lose in the NCAA's and will probably be riding teams like FSU that I think will cause matchup problems in the Dance

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Miami Hurricanes -3

I feel like this is a bet that people talk themselves into the whole "trap" philosophy, but I'm not biting. I think this is a decent matchup for the Jackets actually as they have the frontcourt balance to cause trouble and if they can not turn the ball over they will get alot of open looks. The Canes aren't exactly road warriors (1-5 last 6 on the road) but GT has been awful @ home, going 1-6 Straight up in home conference play.

However I have to take the short favorite tonight. Miami is a much better team from the players to the coach and to actually wager real money on a 1-13 team covering a line in which they basically have to win outright versus a possible tourney team playing in a must win game seems like a reach at best.

It is senior night but that doesnt mean much to me because the GT fan support has been apathetic all season and shouldnt improve to send off a few players who have been career underachievers as a team. GT might start well in this game but they are the kind of team who has blown winnable games all season and I have to bet on that to continue tonight. I will go small because of Miamis struggles on the road but they should win here fairly comfortably. Canes by 8.

I feel like this is a line that you will feel very sharp if you take GT until around the 10 minute mark in the 2nd half. To me this game is Miami or no play.

Best of luck to everyone tonight :toast: