ACC Wednesday

[jimmyshivers]

74-66-3 -1.0 units

1-1 yesterday, picked up .8 units. So it goes..

***** North Carolina State Wolfpack +20

What I see here is a 20 point dog going into a rivalry game playing their best ball of the season. State appears to be getting onto the right track for their season and have been competitive in every conference game they have played this season. Over the last week this team has shown alot of confidence, in beating Wake @ home and blowing out GT on the road. I think Lowe has seen alot of maturation in his young squad, and what I have noticed more than anything else is the improvement in team chemistry. Guys are helping each other up and high fiving alot more over the last few weeks.

On the floor the reason for the improvement has been the improved shooting and ball handling. State is getting alot more motion from their offense and it allows the guards to help bring the ball up and it creates more open shots. State is protecting the ball better (nearly 1.0 Assist/TO ratio in last 5 games) and controlling the boards (35-27 rebounding edge).

Carolina is definatey the better team but they appear to be cruising through games, winning their last 5 games by an average of 13 ppg. The Heels give up too many 3's (40 % over that span) and do a horrible job at forcing turnovers (1.33 A/TO defensive ratio). I look for State to be able to score enough to stay 'frisky' and keep this game under a 15 point margin.


No chance of State pulling the outright W, but I like them to stay competitive. UNC is 0-9 ATS with a spread of 19 or more, and I like that to continue here. State has covered this number in every game this season.

Also think the over is a very strong play here. Neither team plays alot of D and they both shoot the ball well..

BOL everyone, more to come. :toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

***** Florida State Seminoles -2

short writeup, as I am tired..

Really like this spot for the noles. Miami is coming off a tough 3 game stretch against the 3 name programs in the conference and I really expect a letdown against this FSU team. FSU plays great perimeter defense (25% 3 point defense) and this is really going to frustrate Miami (40% of shots from beyond the arc). I like Tony Douglas to be able to frustrate McClinton all night and I just see the FSU size giving the Canes fits down low. FSU struggles to control the ball when they lose but Miami allows 1.33 A/TO ratio in conference. I just see a down effort from Miami in this game after 3 very hard fought games in which they went 1-2.

I know this is more of a gut play for me, but this is why I try to focus in on just a few teams. If my read on FSU is correct, we see them win this game by 10-15 points. Go Noles..

Also, Dwayne Collins is listed as questionable for Miami but I am capping this game as if he will play. If word comes out that he can't it has to make you like the noles even more..

 

[thefriedone]

Agree with you on this one, Jimmy. UNC shouldn't be laying 20 to any team in the ACC (well, at least not NC State). I bet this line drops a bit, people should be all over NC ST.

Any thoughts on VT/UVA yet? I'm going VT with little to no hesitation. I realize Allen is out with the suspension, but a -1 spread for UVA? As I've said before, we have almost no home court advantage. The VT rivalry is something to consider, but I don't see many people going out to this game on a Wednesday night (yeah, our fans suck). UVA has been absolutely terrible ATS at home, and I look for this to continue. Clearly this line is being affected by short term memory - looking just at the last game from each of these squads. VT is the far superior team, as much as it pains me to admit it.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Yeah I think this game is where it is for a couple of reasons, UVA last time out, the allen suspension and its a rivalry game. That being said I agree with everything you have said here. UVA doesnt defend their court well @ all, and VT is not in very good form so they will likely be really dialed in; lose this game and they can kiss the NCAA's goodbye. For me its either VT or nothing, and since it seems like I bet every game I will be on the hokies here.

Thanks for chiming in bud, you are the go to UVA guy and I always like to here your thoughts around here. BOL to us on the Hokies tomorrow..

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Agree with you on most of your write ups but I have to disagree with the letdown angle concerning the "U", this team knows this game is a must win. I'm closer than most to this team and I can tell you how amped they'll be. Now if Collins is out (its a game time decision from what I'm hearing) then I say this play is a coin flip.


GL

 

[MarksMoneymakers]

Love Florida State only laying two at home. Leans towards State as well to keep this under 20 pretty easy.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Agree with you on most of your write ups but I have to disagree with the letdown angle concerning the "U", this team knows this game is a must win. I'm closer than most to this team and I can tell you how amped they'll be. Now if Collins is out (its a game time decision from what I'm hearing) then I say this play is a coin flip.


GL

Fair enough, they may be up for this game even after having to be really up for the past 2 weeks (and they have been, I think they acquitted themselves very well in the past 2 weeks) but this is still a tough spot for the Canes. FSU have been beasts @ home, only losing 3 games all year (UNC by 3, a good form Duke by 7 and Pitt by 8). I like FSU here because they will be able to stop Miami from doing what they do best (perimeter offense and easy inside baskets). The thing that FSU brings to this game that Miami hasn't seen lately is physicality, they are going to make the Canes earn everything they get in this game. Miami might be up for this one and roll with it, but I just get a feeling like FSU has just as much to play for, is @ home and is laying a short line. Good luck to you bud..

Mark, I was a little off on that 17.5, I didn't account for the UNC-flation that happens to their lines. State has played too well lately to just go away in this game, and I think its a 12-15 point final. BOL to us..

 

[papicker]

like the state play dont see how this is a letdown game for miami though there season is on the line tonight, i think they get the job done personally gl

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Wake Forest Deamon Deacons -14


Alot of points to lay so its a small play for me but I see no reason for GT to be expected to cover this game. Wake has been a monster at home and their fast pace is going to be too much for GT. I also expect Wake to have a little revenge on their mind as they gave GT their only conference win. Wake should be able to get to the basket all night long and will be able to force alot of turnovers. Deacs by 20..

 

[jimmyshivers]

like the state play dont see how this is a letdown game for miami though there season is on the line tonight, i think they get the job done personally gl

It's not a letdown game per say but I think that they have to be a bit mentally drained after that gauntlet they just ran through. If they were playing a team like BC or VT that wasnt as physical on defense then I would agree that this is a good time to play a surging Miami team. I just think FSU is able to frustrate them and take them out of their game. McClinton will get his but I see tough sledding for the rest of the team, especially if Collins is limited against the athletic FSU interior.


I think it takes a top 15 team to go into the LCCC tonight and come out with a win. Miami is not a bad team but this to me is a very bad spot for them. I could be wrong..


Just want to say that this is the kind of game that the ACC is all about this year. Two good tournament caliber teams laying it all on the line. Should be a fun one

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Virginia Tech Hokies +1

Write-up to come later..

 

[THEDIRTYHUSTLER]

GL tonight Jimmy.

 

[Dr.T]

Jimmy,

Interesting story about Hansbrough's shin splints still bothering him. Just check out his lower rebound total and steals. And him playing further away from the basket. Expect to see Zeller tonight to give TH more time to rest.



http://bustersports.com/accposts.aspx?id=2700&blogid=77

 

[Jetplane]

I'm down with VT but I'm on GTech tonight, gl

 

[WHITE_CHOCOLATE]

Zeller?? I thought he was out for the year??

 

[jimmyshivers]

first game back for zeller. Carolina is excited to have him back but I expect to see limited minutes. Anything to help their front court depth will really help this team come tourney time.

Thanks for the props guys, lets get 'em tonight!

 

[Mr.Cover123]

ON FSU too, but I heard Alabi might be out for suspension. Collins is doubtful so he won't play.

 

[WHITE_CHOCOLATE]

This Virginia Tech +1 line looks like a weird line to me. The kind that you either bet Virginia or nothing at all. The Purdue/Mich ST line from last night was the same way. Absolutely thought Mich St would have been favored, but they werent and they lost.

I think Vegas knows something and so this is a NO PLAY for me!!

 

[hebrewnational]

note - VATECH's Jeff Allen is not playing tonight!

 

[Jetplane]

This Virginia Tech +1 line looks like a weird line to me. The kind that you either bet Virginia or nothing at all. The Purdue/Mich ST line from last night was the same way. Absolutely thought Mich St would have been favored, but they werent and they lost.

I think Vegas knows something and so this is a NO PLAY for me!!

Michigan State was not the play... it was PURDUE or nothing. I was too chicken but I don't know how MSU was going to be favored at Purdue. Purdue isn't as garbage as a lot people think lol.