ACC Wednesday

[jimmyshivers]

48-42-3 -0.3 units

3-0 yesterday + 7 units
5-0 last 2 days + 14 units

bouncing back nicely after a pretty nasty run. Lets keep it going today with..

** Florida State Seminoles +12

Seminoles are tough @ home and always seem to play these kinds of games tough. Lost by 8 apiece to Pitt and Duke here and I am expecting a similar effort from the noles here. I like their athleticism against the pressure carolina puts you under with their speed of play, and their tremendous size should help them battle with Carolina down low. I have the noles rated 5th in my conference power rankings, just a notch below clemson.

I think the noles will try to run with Carolina in this game and I like their ability to keep it competitive @ home I have Heels by 9. Should have a play on the over coming as well..

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Duke Blue Devils -1.5

** Wake/Duke U 149.5

thoughts are a little jumbled here but I have to post @ work, so my time isnt always there to be coherent...

This is a huge game for both teams, obviously, but I feel that this game comes when Duke is clicking on all cylinders and Wake is facing their first uncertainty of the season. Really like the matchup of the Duke defense (35 % fg percentage, 0.58 Assist/TO rate) against Wake here. Duke has a team that is built to play these kind of quick, transition-based teams. They have a small line-up that effectively limits their opponents fast break and transition opporunities. They played a similar-minded team in Maryland that also has alot of trouble in the half court game and they completely put a choke hold on their offense. Obviously Wake is much better than Maryland, but they say practice makes perfect and that was a great tune-up match for the Devils.

I don't read alot into line positioning but to me this line is screaming at you to take a home dog of this quality. Many times the money is made on the side that does not seem to be soo easy. I think duke is able to turn this into a half court game and I like their experience with those kind of games alot more than Wakes. For this reason I will also take the under as I think Wake will struggle a bit to score and Duke will milk the clock towards the end of the game if they have a lead.

 

[GimmeDattt]

Gl tonight.

Lets go Duke!

 

[Mr.Cover123]

I don't think the line is screaming take Wake Forest. Duke is favored because of their jersey just like UNC. Good luck with FSU, but Duke doesn't have an inside presence to stop Johnson, Aminu, and McFarland.

 

[BuzzKill+]

gl today jimmy, i hope your winning streak continues :toast:

 

[G.MONEY]

Good Luck Jimmy

 

[jimmyshivers]

I don't think the line is screaming take Wake Forest. Duke is favored because of their jersey just like UNC. Good luck with FSU, but Duke doesn't have an inside presence to stop Johnson, Aminu, and McFarland.

I think they could have gotten very even action putting this line @ Wake -1.5. As you have said many times these are basically pick'em lines. To me it seems that by lumping Wake into the home dog category they are going to draw alot of people to their side who might not have played them originally. Like I said I'm not a line analyst but this to me looks like a set-up.

But its not why I like the devils, I really think they match-up well in this game. Wake turns the ball over waay too much to be successful against a D like Dukes. Duke also knows they are weak on the inside and they do a great job of denying entry passes. I look for Wake to get frustrated trying to work the ball inside and struggling with their offensive sets.

Either way, should be a hell of a game :toast:

 

[Mr.Cover123]

They set a trap with Oklahoma, Texas, Purdue, Pitt, etc. I don't look at lines that much. I just don't think they are giving Wake Forest credit like they didn't vs. UNC. Wake Forest destroyed Duke last year and they are pretty much the same team while Wake Forest is more experienced and have Aminu here. Wake Forest is Top 5 in FG defense so they aren't just all offense. Duke only wins if they hit most of their 3's.

 

[jimmyshivers]

I think we really saw a chink in the armour against VT, Wake had 3 guys go out early (Johnson, Teague and Aminu) and they were never able to find any kind of rythym. Coach K is a master at disrupting gameplans, and I really doubt that this lesson is going to be lost on them. Wake is a very good defense, no doubt, but I like Dukes even more. Over the last 5 games Duke has a lower fg % allowed, lower 3 point % allowed, better rebounding advantage, more turnovers forced, and more steals. Wake isnt a good enough outside shooting team to keep this duke defense honest and they are going to collapse into the paint all day long.

Duke needs to hit their threes to win; most smaller teams do. Shooting 41 percent from the arc in conference play so far so there is a good chance of them being successful tonight. I saw that Wake has been good against the long ball but both UNC and Clemson had alot of wide open looks that just didnt go down. Hard for me to expect the Deacs luck to continue tonight..

 

[X-Caliber]

This game should go down to the wire. While Duke has played outstanding defense throughout the year, I am still interested in how their D plays against a team that has a lot more foot speed than them.

Yes, Nolan Smith is an upgrade defensively over Paulus, but Duke is going to have a hard time containing wake when they are putting heavy pressure on Wakes guards far from the basket. I think Wake's athelticism might be the difference tonight.

 

[jimmyshivers]

I think Dukes goal will be to box the offense in. I doubt we see alot of FC pressure. Instead I see Duke trying to stay in front of the Wake guards and force them to make passes into tight spaces. Wake only shoots 3's 20 percent of the time so they are not comfortable with hoisting alot of 3 point shots. I expect the Devils to attempt alot of half court pressure and force the Deacs to make pinpoint passes. So far Wake (.86 A/TO ratio in coference) has struggled a bit to do that.

Not saying the devils will be successful, but I think they have the talent to do this and I think Coach K is smart enough to realize its his best bet. By no means is this a game to unload on but I like my chances here..

 

[jimmyshivers]

**UNC/FSU O 149.5


FSU will try to run with UNC tonight. Hamilton thinks they have the atheticism to pull it off (they do) and I see both teams getting alot of quick shots and baskets. Also like the way that these teams can offensively rebound, as this leads to alot of quick put backs. Carolina being involved means that you can count on alot of free throws so if its close hopefully this will help push us over the number. BOL to everyone tonight with their plays, I don't like playing all 4 possible sides on the schedule but I really liked them. I guess if your only going to follow 12 teams you might as well get as much out of them as you can...

 

[Drunkn247]

If they run with UNC they will get run out of the gym

 

[jimmyshivers]

I'm not so convinced they would, I think FSU is very athletic, has guards that can take care of the ball and plays better transition D than Carolina. I think its their best chance tonight. If Carolina does run them out of the gym then this game goes over and I'm 1-1 at the worst. My numbers have FSU scoring 73 tonight so I like my chances of hitting both...