ACC Wednesday

[jimmyshivers]

41-38-3 -7.1 units

Will not have alot of time to post today so hopefully I can find a time to say something about each of these games for tonite but this is my card:

*** Florida State Seminoles +7

** Clemson Tigers +14

*Wake Forest Deamon Deacons -13.5


may upgrade some later but this is where I will start. BOL tonite... :toast:

 

[Fpronk]

I'm on Clemson and Wake as well. BOL.

 

[BuzzKill+]

gl tonight jimmy

i'll be on clemson for sure

once again, thanks for the Virginia winner last night :toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

guys im upgrading all of these plays by a unit. Been a little chilly lately so be careful but I'm not going to change the way that I handicap games becuause of a bad run.


**** Florida State Seminoles +7

My line: Miami -2

Really like this matchup for the noles. Miami is a decent team but imo they really don't deserve to lay more than 7 against anyone in conference not in the bottom 4 (GT, UVA, BC and NCS). To me they just don't play complete games and even if they catch a nice lead that could come back to bite them. In 4 conference games they have only played well for the whole game once (@ BC). I don't like their defense (1.34 A/TO average in conference play) and they have a propensity to turn the ball over. Hurricanes also only shooting 60 % from the stripe in conference play, and if they have a late lead that could really interfere with their ability to pull away late.

I like what the Noles are doing this year, they have an athletic squad built around their pg Douglas and an athletic interior. Seminoles are causing 17 TO pg in their conference games while outrebounding their oppenents by 6 boards a game. I know that the Noles struggle from outside (20.0 percent from 3) but Miami plays very soft defense (teams shooting 37 percent from distance) so I expect some nice looks for the visitors.

I think FSU has a fantastic shot at the outright victory so I will more than happily take the 7 points in this one.

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Clemson Tigers +14


My Line: UNC -8.5


I know everyone and their brother is taking the tigers tonight, but I don't believe in traps. I see that this line is where it is because UNC has covered 2x in a row in conference and the books are scared of people pounding UNC if they are back (I dont believe that they are quite back to where they need to be). Çlemson has famously never won in Chapel Hill but asking a team to stay within 14 is not the same as asking for an outright victory. Tigers played UNC last season 3 times (with very identical rosters) and covered this number all 3 times. I think this is Purnell's best team and I like the way that the matchup with Carolina.

Without Ginyard Carolina is a very average defensive team. In particular I think their frontcourt is soft (with the notable exception of Hansblow) and that is a major advantage for a very agressive and athletic tiger interior game. I also look for the Tiger trap to have alot of effectiveness. Clemson has just played Wake so they will be accustomed to teams that quickly move the ball. Carolina is the better team but the bookmakers are putting a premium on backing them when I have seen enough of an indication that they are worth backing.

I know its a public play but to me its either Clemson or nothing.

 

[jimmyshivers]

**Wake Forest Deamon Deacons -13.5


My line: Wake -17


Sure this is a lookahead spot for the Deacs with Duke coming to town soon, but if there is one thing that we have learned about this Wake team is that they are very capable of avoiding the let-down/lookahead situation. I think VT is a very very average team this season and they are just not quick enough to hang with the Deacs tonite. Greenberg does an excellent job of getting his team up for big games but imo he just doesnt have the horses this season. This team played Duke this year with a similar spread and they were absolutely smothered defensively. I look for the same tonight as Wake comes home to celebrate its number 1 ranking in style. Wake by 17.

 

[jimmyshivers]

another losing night... feeling alot of frustration right now. Going to take a step back and re-evaluate my capping methods but I have been struggling pretty badlly for the last 2 weeks. The lines have definately gotten better and I need to do a better job in finding value in the card. UNC appears to be back on track, I was really impressed with their interior defense tonight. I think Wake is still a very strong team but this game was a perfect storm. They had foul trouble early and they never seemed comfortable in this game. VT did a great job confusing Wake and playing aggressively...

now 42-40-3 - 8.6 units