ACC Tournament

[jimmyshivers]

102-88-5 +17.6 units

No lines up but I have taken a good look @ the bracket and have come up with a play that I believe has some value in it:

** Wake Forest Deamon Deacons +500
* Florida State Seminoles +1800

Seeing alot of Value getting 5-1 on a team that has proven that they are capable of beating anyone in the field. Think the Deacs hit a rut but with Lawson questionable they will either be favored or a very short dog in every game that they play.
I think Wake hit a bit of a rut about a month ago but this team seems back to where they need to be at this point. I think this is a young team that is very excited about where they are at right now and the opportunities in front of them. I expect them to make it to Sunday so getting these kind of odds is a good bet imo..

As for FSU, mainly got on this one for the big value. Theyve already beaten their likely first round opponent Clemson 2x and they gave Carolina all they want. This team is playing very well and there is no reason they can't make a serious run this weekend.

Will post my plays here tonight when the lines come out. GL to everyone today and all week :toast:

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Got a play on Wake +500 for 1 unit. UNC might hold out Lawson and Wake is playing really well lately. FSU is solid value too.

Any leans for tomorrow? I like V Tech small and BC big.

 

[terpkeg]

Agree on Wake, got +700 last night on Bookmaker, should see if better # still out there.

Wake have best QF matchup imo and i am not very high on Duke, if no Lawson, think +700 is big overlay considering Duke around +350

 

[jimmyshivers]

Got a play on Wake +500 for 1 unit. UNC might hold out Lawson and Wake is playing really well lately. FSU is solid value too.

Any leans for tomorrow? I like V Tech small and BC big.

Pretty confident I will be on Miami and GT @ this point. Think the UVA line is a little fishy but they are playing there best ball right now. Will look at it more tonight.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

VT won at Miami and I know they haven't won many games, but they expect it close while Miami has fallen off the early lately. BC still needs a win to secure a spot in the tournament and Virginia still isn't good IMO.

Check your PM.

 

[georgiasluke]

Already threw a dime on FSU +1800, as well as Auburn +1000 and Nova +700.

I think FSU has GREAT value here, however. Solid guard play, excellent down low, and, UNC isn't going to be playing for shit and I think they'll be out early. Heard Roy Williams the other day basically saying that they won the ACC regular season and have won the ACC tourney before--"been there, done that"--and that they really just wanted to focus on the "real" tournament. Plus, he implied that Lawson probably won't be playing much because he was literally limping the day after playing in the Duke game. IMO, FSU's toughest test will be Clemson in the second round. After that, I think they'll handle Duke, Wake, Unc, or whoever they play.

georgiasluke

 

[jbragg10]

yea ... Wake is a solid bet to win ACC. I took that number as well! Worth a shot

 

[jimmyshivers]

Already threw a dime on FSU +1800, as well as Auburn +1000 and Nova +700.

I think FSU has GREAT value here, however. Solid guard play, excellent down low, and, UNC isn't going to be playing for shit and I think they'll be out early. Heard Roy Williams the other day basically saying that they won the ACC regular season and have won the ACC tourney before--"been there, done that"--and that they really just wanted to focus on the "real" tournament. Plus, he implied that Lawson probably won't be playing much because he was literally limping the day after playing in the Duke game. IMO, FSU's toughest test will be Clemson in the second round. After that, I think they'll handle Duke, Wake, Unc, or whoever they play.

georgiasluke

Georgias I think your all over it here, the game that scares me the most is the first round game that is probably against clemson. But if they survive that one I think we are getting tremendous value with an unmotivated UNC team and after that I will take my chances with the huge line. Really alot of value with the Noles imo

 

[jimmyshivers]

Okay, its tourney time babee

**** Miami Hurricanes -3


This to me is a clear case of one team having something to play for and another team being finished. Although they have similar league records these to me are 2 teams heading in completely opposite directions. I saw everything I needed to know about both of these squads this past weekend. VT laid down in the 2nd half against a FSU team that was more physical and aggressive even though they had very little to play for. And Miami showed that they are still believing in their season with a hard fought 2nd half effort versus NC State.

I think Miami is in a win and in situation and the Hokies need at least 2 games this weekend, considering their terrible finish to the season. I think Miami is able to get the 3 ball going (38% in conference play) and will be more focused than the Hokies. In a near pick-em matchup, I have to take the team that is in much better form and that has a much clearer image of their destiny. I think the Canes win and lock up their Cinderella slippers in this game.

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +9.5

Don't expect the Jackets to come away with a victory here but I see no reason why they cannot hang tight. They played this Clemson team 3 weeks ago in Atlanta and covered this number for nearly the entire game, and that was before the Tigers latest identity crisis.

The Jackets are easily the worst team in the conference but they are the home team this weekend and they are in their best form of the season. The Jackets have covered this number in 3 of their last 4 games and have been doing a great job behind the arc (40.2 % from 3 comapared to 46 % D from Clemson over the last 5 games).

Obviously the tigers are the better team but they have shown a pattern of March swooning and I don't see why this team should be any different. To expect this Clemson team to cover a DD number in what amounts to a road game when they are not in top form and their opponent has not quit seems to me to be alot to ask for. I'm taking the 9.5 and expecting the Wreck to hang tough. Tigers in a hard fought game by 5.

I am also looking @ the under for this game. If the Jackets are going to hang tough it will be an ugly game and there is a very good chance that this game goes well under the number.

 

[C-LO]

Gl this weekend jimmy!!!!

 

[johnboland]

Clemson "Swooing" in March is a great assesement. Clemson needs some sort of spark to reinvigerate the team. Tigers of late have just been treading water and sooner or later with that mentality, the lose that knocks you out of the tournament will come. Looking for Tiger reserve guard Andre Young to be a spark and hoping Tigers will play well enough in Atlanta to get a quality win in the First Round and go from there. ACC Basketball. Gotta Love It.

 

[jimmyshivers]

miami play is a dud, adding:

**** Clemson / GT O 144

Two teams who are actually decent shooting teams and not playing alot of D. Expecting 80-75 type of final.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Glad to see Clemson get knocked off, really creates a great situation for the FSU prop bet. Tigers probably just knocked themselves from around a 4 seed to the 6-7 line in the big dance.

2-1 so far +2.6 units

adding:

**** NCS/ UMD U 140.5
*** Maryland Terrapins -2.5

While NCS was playing their best ball of the season so far this year they were doing it with offense, scoring over 80 points in 6 of 7 games in the middle of the conference season and going 4-3 over that stretch. Since then, this team has been a different story, averaging only 69.6 points a game over their last 5 games. The difference has been a drop off in offensive confidence; their pg's Gonzalez and Degand have gotten too tentative with the ball. This team has also fallen in love with the 3 ball, shotting 38 % of their shots from beyond the arc in the last 5 games. To me this is a sign of a team that has settled into hoisting shots from the outside and not looking to penetrate the post. Maryland has pretty solid perimeter defense (opponents shooting 33 % from the arc) and their guard play is much stronger than NCS. Maryland is also playing very well at controlling the ball with only 10 TO's a game.

I think Maryland has a very good tournament shot with a win here and this is an NCS squad that peaked too soon. I expect both of these teams to struggle to score the ball but the Terps have a big time guard advantage and I think they are able to control the game. Terps by 8, 70-62.

I just see this being a game that is dominated by slo

 

[C-LO]

Very nice hit on the GT game!! Im liking that under alot as well in the pack game.

 

[johnboland]

Both of my favorite State Schools go out in the first round of their tournaments. First Wofford gets ousted last week in the Southern Conference and now Clemson goes down in the ACC. Not my year at all. And the misery continued.

 

[jimmyshivers]

John, Clemson started to struggle when they stop being as effective defensively. To me it looks like they lost alot of their intensity and confidence to play that aggressive defense. Still think Purnell is a solid coach but this team is in alot of trouble in the NCAA's unless they can figure out a way to ratchet their intensity back up.

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Boston College Eagles -4.5

Eagles are decent, UVA is terrible

time to go drink and watch basketball. Tomorrow is almost a state holiday here on tobacco road so I will be back later with my plays for tomorrow. GL everyone..

 

[C-LO]

Well, we agree on both sides of this terps game, I hope its something of good to come. I unloaded on it since its not alot of times when we agree on side and total. Lets do this bro!

 

[RebeKid]

if it had to be one pick under or terps whats ur choice