ACC Saturday

[jimmyshivers]

97-84-4 +15.00 units

**** North Carolina State Wolfpack +8.5

Was actually looking pretty hard @ Miami for this game but the line came out and it is probably a few points too high.

The problem for Miami in my opinion is that this is not a good matchup stylistically for them. Defensively they love to sit in their 2-3 zone which serves them well against the teams that love to drive the lane and attempt to create scoring off of penetration (Maryland, UVA, BC) but it can leave them vulnerable to teams that like to iniatiate the offense through perimeter passing and set up for either perimeter shots or dumps into the low post. With the emergence of F Tracy Smith the Wolfpack have been much more effective with this offense as teams have to collapse in the paint when he gets the ball and it has freed up the outside shooters (41 % from 3 in the last 5 games). Miami is also pretty poor at causing turnovers (1.11 A/TO ratio) so I expect NC State to actually do pretty well with controlling the ball and giving themselves plenty of chances to score.

I know Miami needs this game to have a shot to get into the tourney but honestly I think that ship sailed with the loss @ GT on Wednesday. Both of these teams are 6-9 in conference and though miami has a decent SOS I think any tournament chances hinge on a big run in the ACC Tourney. I think this is looking like a coinflip game and if I can get 8.5 points with two even teams (especially when the dog has already won SU) then I will take those points every time.

BOL everyone looking at a few more today

 

[jimmyshivers]

update:

G Courntey Fells is doubtful for the wolpack. Fells injured his groin in the first half of the win Wednesday versus BC.

Honestly I feel that State could be better of withouth Fells today. He can be a streaky shooter but he plays questionable defense (33 points for Vasquez on Sunday) and for a Senior he bring very little leadership to the team. I expect CJ Williams to start and I imagine this being an advantage for the Pack. He is a decent defender (held Ty Rice scoreless for last 16 minutes on Wednesday) and can really stroke the ball from distance.

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Boston College Eagles -8.5

GT on the road in the acc: 0-7 with losses by:

30, 18, 5, 14, 14, 5, and 7. This means 4 of their last 5 away losses have been by double digits. I hate laying numbers like these with mediocre teams but I think the Eagles have a great shot at a big blow out victory. Aside from the Senior night stuff, I think that the Eagles realize they let a good chance to cement their tourney status on Wednesday and will be looking to lock into the tournament. Another win brings them to 9-7 in conference and that, coupled with wins over Duke and UNC, should be enough to get them into the dance.

GT turns the ball over way too often (16 TO's a game) and does a horrible job on the boards (29-38 rebouding margin in the last 5 games). BC has seen a renewed focus on their rebounding in the 2nd half of the conference season and should be able to generate alot of 2nd chance opportunities (if they need them, as GT gives up nearly 50% shooting and 40% shooting from distance). I just think BC comes out early and puts their stamp on this game and probably leads most of the way by double digits. GT got a big win for their seniors on Wednesday and I expect that this team doesn't have a lot of fight left in them; 2-13 has to take its toll at some point.

 

[jimmyshivers]

**** Virginia Cavaliers +2

Really like the Cavs in this spot. Maryland needs this win for sure but I like the way the Cavs match up. UVA has shown a bit of an edge to me when they play teams that mainly focus on penetrating guard play. Like the way their interior defense denies easy looks against smallish teams like the Terps and I fully expect the Cavs to be very motivated today. Feel that this is the straw that breaks the turtles back.

**** Miami/ NCS O 140.5

Think both teams are good for 70 here as neither team is especially strong at forcing turnovers and both teams like to stroke the long ball. Think this is a 76-73 type of game.

Not alot of time for write-ups as I'm on the way to :drink: and barbeque today. Gotta love march

 

[ATLSLIM]

Mr. Jimmy, excellent write up as always. Always check out your posts. Like your picks today, especially B.C. My play of the day is the Over in Miami, excellent pick there! Good luck to you, sir!! ATLSLIM

 

[jimmyshivers]

thanks ATL, really think it is a strong total play. Any thoughts on UMD/ UVA under. I like the under today and I will take it for **

** Maryland/Virginia U 141.5

 

[FearTheRaven]

gl jimmy.

opposite of the wolfpack contest. Just think Miami puts it on em today.

 

[C-LO]

GL today my man!!

 

[jimmyshivers]

3-2 +1.3 units


should have a big card tomorrow, there will be alot to like imo..

 

[woodypaige]

Time to change your name to JIMMYMONEY!!!