115-101 +6.11 units
2 units -- Florida State Seminoles +1.5 -110
Making a large play against my Wolfpack here as several factors point the other way here. Obviously the Thursday night game was an absolute heartbreaker, anytime you blow a 20 point lead in the middle of the 2nd half their is bound to be some scarring. Trying to bounce back only 40 hours later in a huge must win game is a very difficult thing for any team to do, much less one with the thin margin for error that this State team has against good teams. Add in a game with hated rival UNC on deck and an early start time and State is in a tough situational spot.
Florida St has definitely (0-4 last 4 games ATS) cooled off after a hot start to ACC play; they aren't hitting shots like they were earlier in the season and are struggling to get consistent scoring (and turnovers have reared their ugly head again as they are 330th nationally in TO%) offensively. I feel like this is a pretty good match-up for them as they have the athletes to really limit the effectiveness of State on the perimeter without much doubling (Snaer on Brown and rotating guys on Wood, just make him work to get free and he loses most of his effectiveness). I feel like James can really frustrate Leslie and though Howell should get some decent putback opportunities he isn't consistent enough (and far too foul prone) to be able to put up big numbers on the offensive end.
I love this Wolfpack team, they are fighting every night. But the bottom line is that they just aren't a very deep team (only 6-7 ACC caliber players on the roster) and really struggle with teams that bring a lot of athleticism and can really challenge them consistently defensively. They don't do a good job of forcing turnovers as their perimeter defense is pretty average and teams that can stretch the court on them are just bad match-ups on the offensive end. Honestly I hope to lose this bet but I just can't see this team being dialed all the way in tomorrow and finally picking up a win versus a top 25 RPI team (0-6 on the season).
2 units -- Florida State Seminoles +1.5 -110
Making a large play against my Wolfpack here as several factors point the other way here. Obviously the Thursday night game was an absolute heartbreaker, anytime you blow a 20 point lead in the middle of the 2nd half their is bound to be some scarring. Trying to bounce back only 40 hours later in a huge must win game is a very difficult thing for any team to do, much less one with the thin margin for error that this State team has against good teams. Add in a game with hated rival UNC on deck and an early start time and State is in a tough situational spot.
Florida St has definitely (0-4 last 4 games ATS) cooled off after a hot start to ACC play; they aren't hitting shots like they were earlier in the season and are struggling to get consistent scoring (and turnovers have reared their ugly head again as they are 330th nationally in TO%) offensively. I feel like this is a pretty good match-up for them as they have the athletes to really limit the effectiveness of State on the perimeter without much doubling (Snaer on Brown and rotating guys on Wood, just make him work to get free and he loses most of his effectiveness). I feel like James can really frustrate Leslie and though Howell should get some decent putback opportunities he isn't consistent enough (and far too foul prone) to be able to put up big numbers on the offensive end.
I love this Wolfpack team, they are fighting every night. But the bottom line is that they just aren't a very deep team (only 6-7 ACC caliber players on the roster) and really struggle with teams that bring a lot of athleticism and can really challenge them consistently defensively. They don't do a good job of forcing turnovers as their perimeter defense is pretty average and teams that can stretch the court on them are just bad match-ups on the offensive end. Honestly I hope to lose this bet but I just can't see this team being dialed all the way in tomorrow and finally picking up a win versus a top 25 RPI team (0-6 on the season).
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