ACC Round 13

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115-101 +6.11 units

2 units -- Florida State Seminoles +1.5 -110

Making a large play against my Wolfpack here as several factors point the other way here. Obviously the Thursday night game was an absolute heartbreaker, anytime you blow a 20 point lead in the middle of the 2nd half their is bound to be some scarring. Trying to bounce back only 40 hours later in a huge must win game is a very difficult thing for any team to do, much less one with the thin margin for error that this State team has against good teams. Add in a game with hated rival UNC on deck and an early start time and State is in a tough situational spot.

Florida St has definitely (0-4 last 4 games ATS) cooled off after a hot start to ACC play; they aren't hitting shots like they were earlier in the season and are struggling to get consistent scoring (and turnovers have reared their ugly head again as they are 330th nationally in TO%) offensively. I feel like this is a pretty good match-up for them as they have the athletes to really limit the effectiveness of State on the perimeter without much doubling (Snaer on Brown and rotating guys on Wood, just make him work to get free and he loses most of his effectiveness). I feel like James can really frustrate Leslie and though Howell should get some decent putback opportunities he isn't consistent enough (and far too foul prone) to be able to put up big numbers on the offensive end.

I love this Wolfpack team, they are fighting every night. But the bottom line is that they just aren't a very deep team (only 6-7 ACC caliber players on the roster) and really struggle with teams that bring a lot of athleticism and can really challenge them consistently defensively. They don't do a good job of forcing turnovers as their perimeter defense is pretty average and teams that can stretch the court on them are just bad match-ups on the offensive end. Honestly I hope to lose this bet but I just can't see this team being dialed all the way in tomorrow and finally picking up a win versus a top 25 RPI team (0-6 on the season).
 

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adding for Saturday:

1 unit -- Virginia Cavaliers -10.5 -108
1 unit -- Miami Hurricanes -13.5 -108

 

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I agree they'll have a hangover. Must have been hard to watch the Dookies come back like they did, especially if you were on the court...

Perhaps I'm only thinking of the few FSU conference games I've watched but aren't they a second half team as well? A play and a chase at the half on the Noles if they're down at the half might be in order... or maybe just the chase at the half...

GL tomorrow.
 

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I agree they'll have a hangover. Must have been hard to watch the Dookies come back like they did, especially if you were on the court...

Perhaps I'm only thinking of the few FSU conference games I've watched but aren't they a second half team as well? A play and a chase at the half on the Noles if they're down at the half might be in order... or maybe just the chase at the half...

GL tomorrow.

Was there sitting beside the band in the endzone where State shot in the 2nd half. Went with 4 other Wolfpackers and we gave those Duke fans hell all game. Had been to a few Duke games before but that was easily the best atmosphere I've ever witnessed for an NCAABB game. We were just stunned at the way it unfolded but honestly if you've been a Wolfpack fan long enough you learn that no lead is ever safe.

Not a bad angle, FSU has put up several nice second halves (Maryland, Georgia Tech and Duke immediately come to mind) to cover not only the 2nd half but the game line as well when they failed to cover the 1h. Approaching it from the other side NC State has really struggled in tight games down the stretch, (Duke obviously, but also Virginia, Vanderbilt, Indiana an Stanford immediately come to mind) they just seem to struggle finishing games once the pressure gets turned up.

GL to you as well
 

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The early game numbers indicated a play on Cleveland St so giving it a go..

Cleveland St Vikings -2.5
 

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115-101 +6.11 units

2 units -- Florida State Seminoles +1.5 -110

Making a large play against my Wolfpack here as several factors point the other way here. Obviously the Thursday night game was an absolute heartbreaker, anytime you blow a 20 point lead in the middle of the 2nd half their is bound to be some scarring. Trying to bounce back only 40 hours later in a huge must win game is a very difficult thing for any team to do, much less one with the thin margin for error that this State team has against good teams. Add in a game with hated rival UNC on deck and an early start time and State is in a tough situational spot.

Florida St has definitely (0-4 last 4 games ATS) cooled off after a hot start to ACC play; they aren't hitting shots like they were earlier in the season and are struggling to get consistent scoring (and turnovers have reared their ugly head again as they are 330th nationally in TO%) offensively. I feel like this is a pretty good match-up for them as they have the athletes to really limit the effectiveness of State on the perimeter without much doubling (Snaer on Brown and rotating guys on Wood, just make him work to get free and he loses most of his effectiveness). I feel like James can really frustrate Leslie and though Howell should get some decent putback opportunities he isn't consistent enough (and far too foul prone) to be able to put up big numbers on the offensive end.

I love this Wolfpack team, they are fighting every night. But the bottom line is that they just aren't a very deep team (only 6-7 ACC caliber players on the roster) and really struggle with teams that bring a lot of athleticism and can really challenge them consistently defensively. They don't do a good job of forcing turnovers as their perimeter defense is pretty average and teams that can stretch the court on them are just bad match-ups on the offensive end. Honestly I hope to lose this bet but I just can't see this team being dialed all the way in tomorrow and finally picking up a win versus a top 25 RPI team (0-6 on the season).

on the fl.st. game also > love the play . good luck today.
 

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BOL, opposite on Clev St, caught +3-, B .5, Drex +4! Lots of games today, plenty of fun & $$ I hope.
 

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Clemson goes for another 0-Never attempt at Chapel Hill again today JS. Like a high school team going into Lambeau Field and trying to beat the Green Bay Packers.
 

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Out for the day, Massive Saturday Card for me:

ACC Card:

2 units -- Florida State Seminoles +1.5 -110
1 unit -- Miami Hurricanes -13.5 -108
1 unit -- Virginia Cavaliers -10.5 -108
1 unit -- North Carolina Tar Heels -11.5 -108
1 unit -- Tech/Tech Over 119.5 -110

System Card:

1 unit -- Cleveland St Vikings -2.5 -108
1 unit -- Indiana St Sycamores +5.5 -110
1 unit -- Texas A & M Aggies +7.5 -103
1 unit -- St Bonaventures -11 -108
1 unit -- Michigan Wolverines +5.5 -110
1 unit -- Dartmouth Big Green -5
 

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on the fl.st. game also > love the play . good luck today.

Hoping for a 1 point Wolfpack win but I think we struggle today. Lean under as well. BOL today

BOL, opposite on Clev St, caught +3-, B .5, Drex +4! Lots of games today, plenty of fun & $$ I hope.

CSU 2nd best in every facet of the game, nothing is over until its over but Vikings mailing it in today and not matching Dragon hustle out there. Nice call silver..

Clemson goes for another 0-Never attempt at Chapel Hill again today JS. Like a high school team going into Lambeau Field and trying to beat the Green Bay Packers.

NC is a tough match-up for Clemson as well, NC has the ability to take away the 2nd chance opportunities for Clemson which is arguably their biggest offensive strength. Tigers will need to shoot really well today to have a chance as well as keep NC off the offensive boards. Don't like what happens to this Clemson team when they try to go up-tempo and UNC should be able to dictate pace imo. I don't see it for CU today but it has to end sometime, right? GL to your guys john.
 

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one more for tonight. swept the ACC card today :)...

1 unit -- California Golden Bears -9.5 -108

Working on Sunday's card now
 

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122-104 +10.9 units

Cal pending, 7-3-1 today..

Sunday System Plays:


Georgia Bulldogs +6 -108
Miami (OH) Redhawks -3 -108
Wisconsin Badgers -15 -108
South Florida Bulls +7 -108


play on the Duke/BC game to come..
 

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Cal gets it done for another very nice Saturday..

123-104 +11.9 units

Sunday ACC Play:

1 unit -- Boston College Eagles +15 -108
0.5 units -- Boston College 1h +8.5 -110

Sunday System Plays 1 unit apiece:


Georgia Bulldogs +6 -108
Miami (OH) Redhawks -3 -108
Wisconsin Badgers -15 -108
South Florida Bulls +7 -108

GL all, will try to post brief thoughts on the ACC game if I get a chance...
 

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brutal day yesterday, my plays went 4-1 vs the first half number (the one loss being the one I played for the 1h) only to close out 1-4. Gave a little back after a nice week, hoping to bounceback.

124-109 +8.03 units

1-5 yesterday..

Texas Southern Tigers +7.5 -108
St. John's Red Storm -4.5 -113

 

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