ACC Round 11

[jimmyshivers]

90-84 -1.24 units

1 unit -- Miami Hurricanes +6.5 -110

Too many points right now for FSU, their showing signs of the shooting regression that was expected following a torrid start to ACC play. Miami is becoming the team that many people thought they would be with Johnson finally playing his way into game shape and Kadj really becoming an impact player. While Grant and Scott have been huge disappointments Larkin has been a revelation and really gives their low post game a boost with his ability to penetrate and dish the ball.

The dirty little secret of this FSU team right now is that, considering their size they are really over-reliant on the 3-ball. Their masking the offensive troubles that lie beneath at this point because they have shot the ball really really well (lead the acc @ nearly 40% from deep which is pretty crazy). While Grant and Scott's struggles on offense are well documented they bring a lot of size to the perimeter and have the quickness to close out Loucks Dulkys and to a lesser extent Snaer. The first two can't really burn you if you overpursuit so I expect an agressive Hurricane perimeter D. Canes have been effective at defending the perimeter overall (opponents shooting under 30% from deep in ACC play) and if they succeed again here I don't know where this Florida State offense can go for reliable points as they don't get the ball into the low post very well and don't figure to dominate the offensive boards (getting about a 1/3 of OR's) and aren't especially adept at getting to the foul line. Expecting this one to be pretty close and I lean under as well in what is a huge game for Miami's at-large tournament chances.

Working on the rest of the card here. Be back soon...

 

[johnboland]

Great analysis as usual JS. That Larkin kid does seem to come up with key assists at the right time. Winter is forecasted to return to our portion of the United States this weekend. Nothing like some ACC basketball to get you through the cold days of February. BOL with your plays this weekend.

 

[jimmyshivers]

1 unit -- Virginia Cavaliers +10 -110

Where does UNC go from here? By almost every quantifiable metric they dominated Duke on Thursday, but their main defensive weakness (3 point shooting) was exploited to an extreme level and Williams was outcoached down the stretch. Now less than 48 hours later they have to face a tough, methodical and well-coached UVA squad eager to get a quality win and likely lock up an NCAA bid. I have a hard time seeing them bouncing back with a dominant performance here, UVA's pack-line defense is built to limit the penetration and low post offense that UNC needs to thrive. Not that UVA has the size or athleticism to completely shut them down, but they will body up on Henson and Zeller and play with a physicality that NC struggles with. UNC just doesn't look to the perimeter enough to stretch UVA out (not to mention the loss of their 2nd most prolific perimeter shooter of Hairston for today). I look for UVA to be able to stay at home and frustrate the Heels and do what they want to to the most, which is turn this into a half-cour affair. In that scenario it feels like the DD points have a lot of value, as I like playing on the dog when they are likely to have the most influence on tempo. Obviously the under would be my total play, but I think the better value is taking the points with the dog who has yet to lose a game by more than 3 points all season. No reason UVA can't walk away with a W here if the foul discrepancy does not get out of hand.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Great analysis as usual JS. That Larkin kid does seem to come up with key assists at the right time. Winter is forecasted to return to our portion of the United States this weekend. Nothing like some ACC basketball to get you through the cold days of February. BOL with your plays this weekend.

More than ready for a nice round of some cold weather, it doesn't feel like the depths of ACC hoops if I'm walking around in short sleeves.

In a league full of frustrating teams, is anyone more frustrating than Clemson? I know Tigers must be going crazy by now..

 

[johnboland]

Clemson has been out of my vocabulary since the butt kicking in the Orange Bowl both from a football and basketball standpoint. Just had to back off from my alumni school for a period of time, regain some composure, let some things go through the wash and see where I am in a couple of weeks. Hope the Tigers can have a good showing in the ACC Tournament however. On a sad note this week, Clemson lost a Godly young man who finally lost his battle with cancer. Randy Anderson was a high school kid when I first meet him when he played for Broome High School in Spartanburg SC. Anderson went on to be a QB for the Tigers and was greatly liked by students and locals.

 

[jimmyshivers]

split on the early games:

Maryland +15 -108
Maryland +8.5 1h -115
Wake Forest +5 -110

 

[jimmyshivers]

using:

Wichita St. Shockers +1 -108

looking for a few more for today. Eyeing this Duke UMD game for a potential 2nd half play

 

[jimmyshivers]

Michigan St Spartans +9

 

[jimmyshivers]

Clemson has been out of my vocabulary since the butt kicking in the Orange Bowl both from a football and basketball standpoint. Just had to back off from my alumni school for a period of time, regain some composure, let some things go through the wash and see where I am in a couple of weeks. Hope the Tigers can have a good showing in the ACC Tournament however. On a sad note this week, Clemson lost a Godly young man who finally lost his battle with cancer. Randy Anderson was a high school kid when I first meet him when he played for Broome High School in Spartanburg SC. Anderson went on to be a QB for the Tigers and was greatly liked by students and locals.

Missed this post earlier..Awful news about Anderson, I had heard about that the other day. A little before my time as a player but you have to admire his fortitude to not give up and try to fight until the end and spread his faith as much as he could. Condolences to his family and friends

 

[jimmyshivers]

adding a few system plays:


Princeton Tigers +5 -108
Murray St Racers -10.5 -108
Kentucky Wildcats -5 -108

 

[jimmyshivers]

one more system play for tonight.

Pacific Tigers -8.5 -103

 

[jimmyshivers]

7-4 yesterday.

Sunday's System Plays:

Seton Hall -2 -108
Green Bay +8.5 -108
Michigan -5.5 -110
Missouri St -14.5 -108
Southern Cal +5.5 -103
Fairfield +4.5 -110

brb with VT/BC + write-up

 

[jimmyshivers]

Boston College / Virginia Tech Under 121 -110

This is a big number for a VT team to cover who has not covered 9 out of their last 10 games, if anything BC is the side here against a young VT team that isn't going anywhere and often has terrible body language (the end on the Clemson game when the Tigers was especially telling, no one wanted the basketball and when they turned it over everyone blamed each other). Something tells me VT is able to put it together though today, and really shut Boston down. BC is a good match-up for VT as they are heavily reliant on the outside shot and one of the few things that VT has done well this year is defend the perimenter (25% 3 point shooting defense is 2nd in the country). In ACC play VT is only hitting 41.4% of 2 point shots, and they don't really have the kind of size or athleticism (Finney-Smith is the exception to this, but he hasn't shown enough aggressiveness with the ball in the post to be overly concerned about) to consistently get to the rim and get 2nd chance points versus BC.

When I am playing totals I try to project the pace of the game, and I see this being another game where we end up in the high 50's as VT doesn't play especially fast and BC has played a lot better when they have slowed the game down the past 4 games (only the late game foulathon and a barrage of long 3's sent the total over the number against FSU). Against another team like VT who doesn't like to run I see this game being played in the half-court, where the defensive strengths (3 pt defense for VT, BC's ability to prevent 2nd chance opportunities) should hopefully be able to keep the scoring down. I see a DD win so hopefully the late game scoring bulge that comes from fouling the team with the lead is avoided today. VT 65 BC 50

 

[jimmyshivers]

Great example of the differences in the caliber of coaching performance this year in the Boston-Virginia Tech game tonight. Greenberg's shtick is wearing pretty thin with me this season, he has done a poor job in getting this team to gel into a cohesive unit and they just don't seem to play with any sense of purpose out there. In particular I expected a lot more out of Hudson coming off a redshirt season but he is essentially surplus to requirements for VT. Hokies have now not covered 10 of 11 games and yet they still have inflated lines; if you could watched tonight you would have never guessed that one team was favored by DD over the other. Like I said earlier today Tech has terrible body language and just doesn't make adjustments very well.

The story is almost the exact opposite for Boston. They started the year with 9 true freshmen and they really really looked bad in out of conference play, but have actually shaped into a team that plays together and fights every night. They aren't a good team, they just aren't dynamic enough to compete with the athletic teams on a nightly basis and their offense gets too one-dimensional at times to overcome poor shooting nights, but I like what Donohue is setting up here. They have been great as DD dogs in ACC play and are actually fun to watch if you like to see true underdogs fight to the finish. Anderson, Clifford Jackson and Heckmann look like a solid core in 2 years. Their attitude on the court is much better than GT, VT and Wake and will make up for the talent deficit occasionally; this isn't the basement rat that most people expected. If they finish with 5 wins in ACC play Donohue deserves serious consideration for ACC COY.

11-7 this weekend. System plays bailed out a 2-4 ACC weekend for yours truly..

Monday System Play:

Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks +14.5