90-84 -1.24 units
1 unit -- Miami Hurricanes +6.5 -110
Too many points right now for FSU, their showing signs of the shooting regression that was expected following a torrid start to ACC play. Miami is becoming the team that many people thought they would be with Johnson finally playing his way into game shape and Kadj really becoming an impact player. While Grant and Scott have been huge disappointments Larkin has been a revelation and really gives their low post game a boost with his ability to penetrate and dish the ball.
The dirty little secret of this FSU team right now is that, considering their size they are really over-reliant on the 3-ball. Their masking the offensive troubles that lie beneath at this point because they have shot the ball really really well (lead the acc @ nearly 40% from deep which is pretty crazy). While Grant and Scott's struggles on offense are well documented they bring a lot of size to the perimeter and have the quickness to close out Loucks Dulkys and to a lesser extent Snaer. The first two can't really burn you if you overpursuit so I expect an agressive Hurricane perimeter D. Canes have been effective at defending the perimeter overall (opponents shooting under 30% from deep in ACC play) and if they succeed again here I don't know where this Florida State offense can go for reliable points as they don't get the ball into the low post very well and don't figure to dominate the offensive boards (getting about a 1/3 of OR's) and aren't especially adept at getting to the foul line. Expecting this one to be pretty close and I lean under as well in what is a huge game for Miami's at-large tournament chances.
Working on the rest of the card here. Be back soon...
1 unit -- Miami Hurricanes +6.5 -110
Too many points right now for FSU, their showing signs of the shooting regression that was expected following a torrid start to ACC play. Miami is becoming the team that many people thought they would be with Johnson finally playing his way into game shape and Kadj really becoming an impact player. While Grant and Scott have been huge disappointments Larkin has been a revelation and really gives their low post game a boost with his ability to penetrate and dish the ball.
The dirty little secret of this FSU team right now is that, considering their size they are really over-reliant on the 3-ball. Their masking the offensive troubles that lie beneath at this point because they have shot the ball really really well (lead the acc @ nearly 40% from deep which is pretty crazy). While Grant and Scott's struggles on offense are well documented they bring a lot of size to the perimeter and have the quickness to close out Loucks Dulkys and to a lesser extent Snaer. The first two can't really burn you if you overpursuit so I expect an agressive Hurricane perimeter D. Canes have been effective at defending the perimeter overall (opponents shooting under 30% from deep in ACC play) and if they succeed again here I don't know where this Florida State offense can go for reliable points as they don't get the ball into the low post very well and don't figure to dominate the offensive boards (getting about a 1/3 of OR's) and aren't especially adept at getting to the foul line. Expecting this one to be pretty close and I lean under as well in what is a huge game for Miami's at-large tournament chances.
Working on the rest of the card here. Be back soon...