ACC Plays 11/29

[jimmyshivers]

27-15 +27.8 units


*** North Carolina State Wolfpack +1.5

I think last week was a big statement game for this NCS team. They came out versus a heated rival, got a couple of breaks and put their foot on the gas. This is a team that has completely turned its season around and at the moment is an upper level ACC team. For them to be getting points @ home, where they are playing for a chance to go bowling provides us with some definite line value.

The thing that I took from the GT-Miami game last week was the lack of discipline from the UM defense. To stop the option requires patience, timing and dedication and Miami did not show any of that on the field in this game as they were repeatedly gashed on the ground versus the GT attack. This is something that NCS can exploit with their poised mobile quaterback. I think he will give Miami defensive fits in this game.

I also like the coaching match-up in favor of the wolfpack, and NCS will enjoy their best home field advantage of the season as the crowd will try to pull them through to the bowl season. Last year in this same spot NCS was shut-out 37-0 by Maryland, and I doubt that the coaching staff will let the wolfpack forget it here. NCS by 10.

BOL will have a few more plays but I am playing the card pretty conservatively this week.

:toast:

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

glad to see that we are on the same page again...GL to you this week...

 

[jimmyshivers]

pags, it scares me to keep taking this team over and over again, but they just keep getting better. I honestly thought we would have to lay some points in this spot (~ 3) and was torn on a side. This is not the same State from the beginning of the season, and they should not be getting points @ home against such a temperamental Miami team. This play might not win, but it just really looks like the right side.

BOL on your plays, I have a feeling you will like a few of my other plays as well.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

completely agree with your analysis...anxious to see the rest of your card...

 

[jimmyshivers]

Feel like we are getting an edge this week in several of the ACC-SEC matchups due to perception of both conferences (ACC is weak and SEC is strong) I feel like nationally the ACC is a very good conference but they are downgraded in the eyes of many because they dont have any teams who are clearly top 15 caliber. I feel they matchup 4-12 with any conference in the country. Add to that a very top-heavy SEC and perhaps we can still find some line value this late in the season.

** Florida State Seminoles +16.5

Hard to believe that the best team in the ACC is getting more than 2 TD's @ home in a rivalry game. Florida has looked incredibly impressive since the loss to Ole Miss, often winning games by large margins as they have shot up the polls (6-0 ats since the Ole Miss loss). However, it is tough to like the Gators in this game (unless u just blindly bet the gators) as they have their national championship semifinal looming in Georgia vs Bama. All that stands in their way is a "rival" that no one on this team has lost too. To me this screams of a look ahead game for the gators. FSU will not be able to stop Demps and Harvin but they have enough speed to limit their damage.

The Noles are going to have to try to control the ball as much as possible if they have any chance of covering this number. I think FSU will suprise some people in this game with their ability to run the ball. It has been their M.O. this season and Florida can be taken advantage of on the ground (4.1 ypc in the last 3 road games, as well as 17 first downs per game). Florida also has a relatively tough time stopping the short passing game (61.3 defensive completion percentage) which should give Ponder time to get some momentum and confidence.

Still, this is a risky play, as Florida seems capable of covering any number some weeks (and Urban has a propensity for covering spreads late) but I really feel good about this play. FSU has everything to play for here and they should be feeling disrespected by both the linesmakers and the media going into this one. The Noles will be UP for this one and I think they have a shot to pull out the outright W, but I am only asking them to not get their ass beat.

More coming...

 

[TOOTIGHT]

I think the Gators could easily be looking ahead here with all the credit they have been given. I really dislike how the Seminoles are kinda one dimensional and turnover prone but there is some def. value here. The one thing I like though is I feel the SEC was really over-rated this year and UF looks a little better than they really are due to LSU, UGA, and Tenn. being way down this year. The Game Cocks, Kentucky, and Ga. were absolutely horrible turning the ball over. I credit the UF D but some of the turn overs and special teams play was just dismal. If FSU takes care of the football, UF gets their toughest game of the year this week. Good luck JS!!

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackes +8

Feel like this team (even w/ the defensive injuries) has a fantastic shot to win this game outright. GT to me simply has all the motivation in this game and has been in better form as of late.

I feel this Georgia team was lost for the season after the blowout in Jacksonville a month ago. Since then they have barely beaten 2 average SEC teams and this game really has no impact on their final destination. The BCS is out of play and their pecking order in the conference will be determined whether they win or lose this game.

On the field I like the fact that both teams are capable of running the ball. I see this game settling into a rythym where both teams are content to grind out the yardage on the ground. These two teams actually match up very similarly when comparing their last 3 games (to me this speaks of current form) and when you add in the rivalry factor I have to take the side that is getting more than a touchdown every time. Dawgs by 3.

 

[jimmyshivers]

I think the Gators could easily be looking ahead here with all the credit they have been given. I really dislike how the Seminoles are kinda one dimensional and turnover prone but there is some def. value here. The one thing I like though is I feel the SEC was really over-rated this year and UF looks a little better than they really are due to LSU, UGA, and Tenn. being way down this year. The Game Cocks, Kentucky, and Ga. were absolutely horrible turning the ball over. I credit the UF D but some of the turn overs and special teams play was just dismal. If FSU takes care of the football, UF gets their toughest game of the year this week. Good luck JS!!

I agree completely Tootight. This could be the strongest defense Florida has seen this year! We might not win this bet but I feel like @ least 7 out of 10 times this game should go into the fourth quater very tight. I will take those odds every time.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on Georgia Tech as well...

 

[TOOTIGHT]

JS,

This will also be the toughest road game the Gators have played YTD. They got all their toughest tests in Jacksonville and at the swamp. Last time I checked the Gators didn't have a very good road record against the Nole's either.

 

[jimmyshivers]

** North Carolina Tar Heels -7.5

Tough to lay more than a score on the road in a rivalry game but I like Carolina here for a couple of reasons.

1. Duke is utterly completely totally done. Team has fallen apart
2. Carolina's implosion has created some line value here. Should be laying DD @ a weak Duke team that will be at best a mixed crowd.
3. Duke was eliminated from bowl contention last week and looks content with their 4-win season. They have exceeded expectations this year and I think Cutcliffe knows that hes gotten all out of his team that he could this year. Carolina is still playing for bowl game positioning and they are trying to impress this weekend.

Yates struggled last week versus NCS badly but a Duke defense that gives up a 62 percent completion percentage should help with that. I look for Carolina to get back to an effective ground game and completely control the game. The pass will be used to get Yates comfortable as they ground out this game on the ground.

I've been on campus all week and the football buzz is more dead than usual this week. Attention has already shifted to the basketball team and they will have very lackluster support on Saturday. I know UNC has struggled offensively but it might not take 20 points to win this bet.

BOL everyone still playing with the Maryland game...

 

[BBBILLY]

Jimmy I always pay attention when I see your threads pop up. I really appreciate your insights. Will you be posting in the hoops forum this year? Good Luck!

BBBd1g1t

 

[RedElephants]

Would like to know from you since you follow ACC how NC State has overcome their injury bad luck. Have they gotton people back over the course of the season or are others stepping up. I know at the beginning of the season it was an ugly situation.

 

[coitus_maximus]

Like your NC State pick. They need one more win to go to a bowl
and they are at home. The U needs to look much better than last week to even come close. I think NC State will win out right.

 

[mws]

I'm glad to see you on the Heels. I wish I had a better read on T. Lewis's condition, but I'm playing the Heels anyway.

What about the UVA game? That line is very strange -- The Greek has the VPI team total at 24, even though they haven't made it to 24 in any of their conference games this year.

 

[mws]

I like the State and GT picks as well.

Good luck on all your plays.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Thanks guys for the well wishes..

Don't like the UVA-VT game at all. Feel like UVA is done and UVA should be able to blow them out. Hokie offense showed last week that they cannot pack on points against anybody. There are much better plays on the boad than this game to me.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Would like to know from you since you follow ACC how NC State has overcome their injury bad luck. Have they gotton people back over the course of the season or are others stepping up. I know at the beginning of the season it was an ugly situation.

State had early in the season a very bad case of the injury bug. The coach said that the preseason starters have missed 70 games combined from the August starting lineups. They have lost a few players for the season but most of the guys that State lost early are now back in the rotation (every player who has made an impact this year is still active). With the experience that the players got filling in for injuries it has only helped this young NCS team grow up a little faster. This has been a large factor in their resurgence as the team has gained some much needed experience at several key positions.

Wishing everyone a profitable start to the holidays...

:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

Jimmy I always pay attention when I see your threads pop up. I really appreciate your insights. Will you be posting in the hoops forum this year? Good Luck!

BBBd1g1t

Have posted sparingly in hoops this year, but I will be playing the ACC in baketball. This is usually my bread and butter but I like to wait until closer to conference play to start making regular plays.

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Maryland Terrapins +7
* Maryland/BC Under 41.5


Really like Maryland in this spot. BC has a good defense but isn't strong enough offensively to be expected to blow out Maryland. With the loss of Crane (who was playing his best ball of the season @ this point) this team is going to take a major step back offensively. I think these teams are very comparable talent-wise and BC to me is just not strong enough to cover this number. They have no homefield advantage in this game and I just see this one as a grind it out affair.

Both offenses will struggle with the ball and I see this game as being ugly. 20-17 kind of game either way.