ACC plays 11/1

[jimmyshivers]

12-8 + ~ 6 units

still don't have my computer back so the units are sketchy, but its close. 4-1 last week. Small card this week in the ACC, I feel like we are seeing somewhat of an upper crust in the ACC show up I think the lines in the ACC should be:

Miami (5-3)
UVA (5-3)

UVA -2.5

FSU (6-1)
GT (6-2)

GT -2

CLEM (3-4)
BC (5-2)

BC -6.5

DUKE (4-3)
WF (4-3)

WF -7


At these lines I would probably bet Wake and FSU, but we will wait and see what else happens with the lines before I make any plays.

 

[jimmyshivers]

After my initial reactions I have looked at these games some more and I am getting ready to lock into a few selections.

** Duke Blue Devils +7.5

It's time to face the fact that WF is probably a middle of the pack ACC team; they just arent clicking. I think this will be an ugly, grind it out game and in this situation I am always happy to get more than 7. Duke thinks it can go bowling and they will look to take a huge step towards that on Saturday.

 

[AR_23]

Like Duke as well..seeing 8 on CRIS btw

 

[jimmyshivers]

Like Duke as well..seeing 8 on CRIS btw

8 is a great price if you can get it, I personally don't see it getting any better. A little on the money line would not be a bad idea either.

*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -2.5

Like the Jackets in this spot alot, the upset last weekend to UVA puts them in a must-win position if they want to make it to Tampa, and I always like to back teams in that position when they are well coached, can run the ball, and play disciplined defense. GT seems to be able to control the ground game at home and in this contest I think it will make all the difference. I haven't heard if Smith is a go for FSU but to me it does not matter. I like the Jackets by 7+ in this one.

** Virginia Cavaliers -2.5

I don't expect a let down from UVA after last week because I think the bad start to the season has given a glimpse of what can happen to them if they do not bring their A-game. The Cavs have clearly grown in confidence as they keep winning and are in the thick of the race for the Coastal division crown. Groh's teams have a history of finishing strong after starting slow and I think we are now seeing a consistent effort from this team.

The fact that they did not let down last week in a big time let down spot tells me that they are not taking anything for granted and will show up for this game. I feel Miami is much more prone to a let down after the big home win last weekend against WF.

Good luck everyone, might have a small play on the Clemson/BC game but nothing yet.

:toast:

 

[zeketaylor]

8 is a great price if you can get it, I personally don't see it getting any better. A little on the money line would not be a bad idea either.

*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -2.5

Like the Jackets in this spot alot, the upset last weekend to UVA puts them in a must-win position if they want to make it to Tampa, and I always like to back teams in that position when they are well coached, can run the ball, and play disciplined defense. GT seems to be able to control the ground game at home and in this contest I think it will make all the difference. I haven't heard if Smith is a go for FSU but to me it does not matter. I like the Jackets by 7+ in this one.

** Virginia Cavaliers -2.5

I don't expect a let down from UVA after last week because I think the bad start to the season has given a glimpse of what can happen to them if they do not bring their A-game. The Cavs have clearly grown in confidence as they keep winning and are in the thick of the race for the Coastal division crown. Groh's teams have a history of finishing strong after starting slow and I think we are now seeing a consistent effort from this team.

The fact that they did not let down last week in a big time let down spot tells me that they are not taking anything for granted and will show up for this game. I feel Miami is much more prone to a let down after the big home win last weekend against WF.

Good luck everyone, might have a small play on the Clemson/BC game but nothing yet.

:toast:

im not one to ever bash peoples plays, or hate on other people...but i think in your analysis of the cavs, u might want to think about what maimi does well, if virginia can stop them...and if virginia can score on miami, as opposed to the intangibles ....your analysis has to do with let downs, finishing strong, and consistent effort

Miamis offense has been better of late than it has been in recent years, and there defense has been good for a while...cavs can be as good as u think they are....they might not be able to beat Miami even if they play their best game..

 

[GoForIt]

I know many Tech alumni and they agree that this team fumbles way too much. Florida State knocked out two quarterbacks last week and their defense is one of the best, even better than Tech. The FSU-Miami game was deceiving since the Canes only put up 250 yards. The 39 points by the Canes is very misleading. In Florida State's only loss they gave up 7 turnovers to Wake Forest, yet only allowed 12 points. Not many defenses can do that no matter how bad an offense is playing.

 

[GoForIt]

And Antone Smith is playing. I heard local radio here in Atlanta. I GOT NOLES -1.5 early, probably too early since Tech is favored by 2.5 now, but I obviously think they will win outright since I played them at -1.5

 

[jimmyshivers]

zeke, thanks for the input, I respect your capping ability (esp in baseball), but to me the biggest factor in collegiate athletics is motivation; these are 18-22 year old kids and they are much more prone to reading their own press clippings and believing their hype on campus than the more isolated professional athletes.

For me I believe that in most cases Vegas has the lines where they should be based on stats and matchups, so my edge has to come from attempting to entangible the intangibles (if that makes any sense). Sometimes my write-ups lean solely on this, and sometimes I do include some statistics when I believe that they are overwhelming, but I live in the region and base most of my plays on what team I believe that we will see take the field on a given Saturday. This is why I stick with the ACC; I know these teams, coaches and fanbases and I feel I have a pretty good handle of the mental mind set of each team going into a game.

Sorry for the long post, I am at work and don't have a lot of time to edit it into something sensical. Let me know if anything is unclear

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL this week jimmy...

 

[AR_23]

8 is a great price if you can get it, I personally don't see it getting any better. A little on the money line would not be a bad idea either.

Sounds good. Dont like FSU, but im not sold on GT especially because i thought UVA would cover last weekend.. and well they beat em outright. Staying away with the line movement and all. GL this w/e :aktion033

 

[ilovefootball+]

12-8 + ~ 6 units

still don't have my computer back so the units are sketchy, but its close. 4-1 last week. Small card this week in the ACC, I feel like we are seeing somewhat of an upper crust in the ACC show up I think the lines in the ACC should be:

Miami (5-3)
UVA (5-3)

UVA -2.5

FSU (6-1)
GT (6-2)

GT -2

CLEM (3-4)
BC (5-2)

BC -6.5

DUKE (4-3)
WF (4-3)

WF -7


At these lines I would probably bet Wake and FSU, but we will wait and see what else happens with the lines before I make any plays.

GT sucks big time.!!! FL state are much better than them. Wrong team is faovorited. I watched too many tech games. I know I;m right... I will never put my money on Tech QB because he sucks against best D-fenses.. give up on GT pleases.. They are overrated...

 

[jimmyshivers]

GT sucks big time.!!! FL state are much better than them. Wrong team is faovorited. I watched too many tech games. I know I;m right... I will never put my money on Tech QB because he sucks against best D-fenses.. give up on GT pleases.. They are overrated...

Maybe FSU wins the game but I dont believe the wrong team is "faovorited". GT has earned respect this season and should be favored at home against anyone in a conference this vanilla. They have a multi-faceted offense that knows how to chew up yards and a most importantly, make adjustments. I think they will be able to generate alot of heat on Ponder defensively and force him to think quickly, which we have seen this year can be very dangerous.

I'm not ready to give up on GT just because they lost to UVA. You could definately argue that they were looking ahead to this game. FSU is coming off a big win against VT @ home and is really in a bad spot here. I really think you get an A-plus effort from the Jackets this weekend, hence it being a 3-star play.

:toast:

 

[ilovefootball+]

Maybe FSU wins the game but I dont believe the wrong team is "faovorited". GT has earned respect this season and should be favored at home against anyone in a conference this vanilla. They have a multi-faceted offense that knows how to chew up yards and a most importantly, make adjustments. I think they will be able to generate alot of heat on Ponder defensively and force him to think quickly, which we have seen this year can be very dangerous.

I'm not ready to give up on GT just because they lost to UVA. You could definately argue that they were looking ahead to this game. FSU is coming off a big win against VT @ home and is really in a bad spot here. I really think you get an A-plus effort from the Jackets this weekend, hence it being a 3-star play.

:toast:

If GT area playing anyone else I wouldn't disagree with you, but against FSU and favorite at home. Do you think GT is that good really? GT qb cant handle pressure he sucks, I'm living in Atlanta right now. please tell me something that I don't know about the damn team that would favorite against FSU. Hi... but its your money... Hope I'm wrong this time, but 8 out of 10 I;m right about this damn team every single year.

 

[jimmyshivers]

* Clemson Tigers +3.5


Not alot to like about Clemson lately so its a small play, but I feel that they got the bye week at a great time. They have taken the 2 weeks to settle down after the Bowden chaos and to rest up some key offensive weapons. Boston College is a decent team, but Crane is mistake prone under pressure and I think Clemson has enough horses to generate that pressure all day. I'm calling for 3 picks from Crane as Clemson begins to attempt to return to respectability with a close victory on the road.


Clem 24
Boston 20

 

[jimmyshivers]

* Duke / WF under 41.5

*Miami/UVA over 42


going to tread lightly since I don't do alot of totals but I like these both to hit nicely.