ACC Plays 11/09 (includes ACC GOY)

[jimmyshivers]

15-11 +~8 units

Computer still not working @ home but should be by the end of the week. Will update my record and units in this thread when I get it back and get the spreadsheet updated. Feel very strongly about the card this week, including a game I have had circled for several weeks. Lets get right to it.

** Florida State Seminoles -6.5

I feel like in this game we have a definite class difference between the two sides. The spread is kept in single digits mostly based on last weeks results; Clemson beating an overrated BC team and FSU losing a close game to a well-coached GT squad. The major weakness so far this season lately defensively has been their run defense, giving up over 5 yards a carry over their last 3 games. Clemson's O-line is not strong enough to take advantage of that, this young group has only been able to pave the way for a 2 ypc average over that same span.

Offensively I like what FSU showed towards the end of the Georgia Tech game. They were able to move the ball down the field with ease on the ground (Nice discovery for the Noles of the Frosh RB Thomas) until that goal line fumble cost them the game.

I still feel like FSU is the class of the ACC. I was on the Jackets last week but it looked like FSU was going to take that game at the end; they owned the 4th quarter but could not close the deal. I think FSU comes out and makes a statement to keep pace in the ACC Atlantic division.

Also, no need to worry about Bobby taking it easy on Tommy to keep him off the hot seat this year. Clemson has won 3 in a row in this series and I think that the Seminole seniors want to finally taste some Tiger Blood.

FSU 27
Clemson 14

GOY play coming next...

 

[jimmyshivers]

**** North Carolina State Wolfpack +5 (ACC GOY)

Been waiting for this game right after I saw NCSU give Florida State a game three weeks ago on Thursday night. After watching the Wolfpack give UMD all they wanted 2 weeks ago I only felt better about this matchup. I think this is a very competitive NCS team who has improved by leaps and bounds from the start of the season. They have spent most of the year depleted by injuries and that has given them time to develop their young, raw talent. Usually the last month of the season is when this starts paying off as the young guys have the game slow down for them and begin to gel on the field.

While NCS was home last week resting following three straight hard fought losses, Duke was losing a heartbreaker on the road to a disapointing Wake Forest team. After a hot start to the season Duke has dropped 3 straight conference games and can see the season slipping away. The grind of the season is wearing down an admittedly thin roster and I expect the confidence of the Devils to be a bit shakey. Add to that NC State getting back several key defensive starters and I look for a much improved defensive effort from the Pack.

This game is in Durham but will not be a home game for the Devils. NC State fans, despite the poor season, travel very well and should do their part to make this as close to a neutral field as is possible. I think NCS can get up early and keep up the effort the rest of the way. Their offense is the much improved this year and the coaching staff has challenged the Defense to step their game up to match. I think State keeps the offense rolling and the defense finds their mettle this week.

State 27
Duke 17

 

[FairWarning]

A strong ACC play is BC-3.5 vs Notre Dame also. Irish never play well up there.

 

[BC-Eagles]

A strong ACC play is BC-3.5 vs Notre Dame also. Irish never play well up there.

5 straight wins!

 

[jimmyshivers]

looking pretty hard at BC. Should be a good spot for them against a very mediocre Irish squad. Irish usually have a hard time lately stopping QB's who can throw the ball around like Crane. Should be a good bounce back spot for the Eagles, but not ready to pull the trigger

 

[FairWarning]

5 straight wins!

I live by ND and BC gets fired up for the Irish. Irish not very good on the road either.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

with you on both Florida State and N.C. State this week...really enjoyed your write-ups and completely agree with your analysis of both games...GL this week brother...

 

[TOOTIGHT]

But there's another guy on here maxing out both his accounts on Clemson to cover, how can you go against that kind of confidence? :nohead:

Regardless of who covers, going against Clemson puts the ball in your court from the start. They figure out ways to loose basically every game.

GL Jimmy!

 

[jimmyshivers]

jimmy,

with you on both Florida State and N.C. State this week...really enjoyed your write-ups and completely agree with your analysis of both games...GL this week brother...

Thanks pags, feel pretty strongly about both plays, especially the wolfpack this week. Should have a couple more plays but waiting on some line action first. BOL to you man when we sync up more often than not its a good thing.

 

[jimmyshivers]

But there's another guy on here maxing out both his accounts on Clemson to cover, how can you go against that kind of confidence? :nohead:

Regardless of who covers, going against Clemson puts the ball in your court from the start. They figure out ways to loose basically every game.

GL Jimmy!

I saw that, I wish him the best of luck but we know how more often than not going all in leaves you with nothing to pull back. Clemson might have equal talent but they havent used that talent well all season and to think that they have it figured out after winning a game that they dominated yet nearly lost is a very risky proposition. I just think knowing what we know that its either FSU or nothing this game.

:toast:

 

[Strick]

NC State is so pathetic. They probably will not win an ACC game. If I had to bet I would probably take the pack, but betting on State is like betting on the Raiders. hno:

 

[jimmyshivers]

NC State is so pathetic. They probably will not win an ACC game. If I had to bet I would probably take the pack, but betting on State is like betting on the Raiders. hno:

This team is coming around, I really think you are selling them short. They are close to breaking through for that conference W and I think this is the week. The games they have lost ugly have been for the most part without Wilson. When hes healthy the whole team tends to show up.

Strick, what would you make the early line on the NCS-UNC game at this point? Those games are usually close between the two teams. If I can get double digits I will be all over the pack.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

for sure...I consider my resident ACC expert and always feel better when we agree on games...also think many are dismissing this NCSU team but as you say they have quietly been playing some pretty good football and Wilson's leadership (and health) have been key...

 

[EveryGamblersDream]

Aren't you a tad concerned with Crane being a turnover machine? That is if you choose to back B.C. Good luck with your selections this week, they as usual are very strong.

 

[Strick]

This team is coming around, I really think you are selling them short. They are close to breaking through for that conference W and I think this is the week. The games they have lost ugly have been for the most part without Wilson. When hes healthy the whole team tends to show up.

Strick, what would you make the early line on the NCS-UNC game at this point? Those games are usually close between the two teams. If I can get double digits I will be all over the pack.

It probably will be double digits. If Notre Dame is getting 8.5 at Kenan, you would have to imagine that the pack would be +10 or +11. I already have a $300 bet on UNC to just win the game with one of my state buddies. No way would I lay over a td on the heels in what is always a highly competitve and emotional game. bol this week

 

[GoForIt]

Game of the Year on N.C. State, that's gutsy, but then again Duke is Duke

 

[jimmyshivers]

Aren't you a tad concerned with Crane being a turnover machine? That is if you choose to back B.C. Good luck with your selections this week, they as usual are very strong.

Yeah that is a concern to me, its been a primary factor keeping me off of BC. I am a firm believer that they have been overrated for the last month but I think the lines are starting to get back to where they need to be. I don't think the Eagles are very well coached and as the season wears on I expect they will be a good fade the rest of the way. However Notre Dame is by definition overvalued, so to me this is a tough game. Looking more like I will just lay off but still kicking around a small play possibly.

:toast:

 

[AR_23]

NC State will win outright.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Like them both. Best of luck

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** Virginia Tech Hokies -2.5 -120

When your starting a third string QB in a conference game, the first thing that you have to look for how much of a drop-off you are going to have. With VT I think the dropoff will be minimal as they have been very average at QB all season and they will not ask Holt to do to much. Even if he has to throw, Maryland can be beat on the pass. They have allowed 61 % completion percentage over their last few games. I look for VT to come out early and try to work the short passing game to get Holt's confidence up and help his team feel more comfortable around him. The key will be to limit mistakes, and I feel VT will be able to with a punishing ground game.

On the ground the Terps give up 4.2 yards a carry in conference play, and I expect VT to attempt to control the ground game. They like to run the ball alot and UMD has not had alot of success in denying the run against an opponent who is committed to it. VT has had limited running success this year but I think they will stick with it tonight and wear this Terp Defense down.


VT has actually had a pretty stout defense this season, holding opponents to 3.5 ypc in conference and keeping teams to 54 % passing. They are going against a Maryland team that is pretty balanced in its playcalling, but I believe defensively they have the horses to keep the Terp offense in check.

Off the field, you always like to have home field advantage and a Thursday Night Lane Stadium crowd is as wild as you will find mid-week. VT is 12-4 ATS all time on thursday nights, and while this team lacks the firepower of those squads I think they will be fired up to get back into the conference title chase tonight.

Maryland has only played 3 times on the road; losing twice outright as a double-digit favorite. To me that speaks of a team that doesn't have the right mental make-up to go and take a big conference game on the road in front of a National audience.

Hokies by 10.

Edit: I am making this play assuming Holt is the man tonight, as he has seen most of the reps the last 2 weeks. If he is not the starter I still feel strongly about the play.