ACC Play-On Games for 2008

[SoonerBS]

Atlantic Division

Clemson

Here we go again, Clemson SHOULD have a great shot of winning the ACC this year and go to a BCS game. How many times have we sang this song? Tommy Bowden is in his 10th year at Clemson. How the hell has he lasted this long? He's 69-42 straight up as head coach at Clemson. That's not too bad, but it is not great either considering the talent he has had over the years. Probably most telling is his record in big games -- he's 4-7 vs. Top 10 teams. Still, Clemson went 9-4 ATS last year and returns 16 starters and 52 lettermen off that team. Clemson has arguably the best running back duo in the nation. They had the #10 defense in the nation last year and could be even better this season. There are not many weak spots on this team this year. If Bowden can't get this team to a BCS bowl, I'm calling him Houdini if he's still around to coach next year.

-- Clemson vs. NC State September 13th -- I've actually seen where some so called "experts" are calling NC State an improved team this year. I'll get to them later, but I see no evidence of them being any better than their 5-7 season of 2007 (in fact, they may struggle to win 5 games this year.) This will be Clemson's first scheduled conference game of the year and it is sandwiched between a couple of Div. AA games at home. All attention will be on NC State and this being the 3rd game of the season, they should be clicking good. My prediction: Clemson wins 48-18.

-- Clemson vs. Georgia Tech October 18th -- Georgia Tech is going to struggle this year due to factors I'll explain later. Clemson will play a big game against Wake Forest on the Thursday before this game. That will give them 10 days to prepare for G Tech. Then, they get a bye-week the next week. G Tech returns only 4 starters on defense and Clemson will have their way with them. Revenging last year's loss in a big way here. My prediction: Clemson wins 52-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Florida State

Steele has Florida 2nd in this division of the ACC so I'll go ahead and talk about them now, but I'm calling for Maryland to be 2nd, Wake Forest to be 3rd and FSU to actually end up 4th in the Atlantic Division. With 15 returning starters somebody might ask the question, why 4th? Well, for starters, several players will be suspended the first 3 games (including the Wake Forest game) for violations before last year's bowl game. Secondly, it is going to take some time for the 4 new offensive linemen to gel and gain some experience. As you've heard me mention before, the strength of the offensive and defensive lines are big capping factors for me to consider. Because of these factors, I think it is more likely that we will find some games to play-on towards the later part of the season. Like . . . .

-- Florida State vs. Florida November 29th -- IF Florida State is still relatively healthy and no one has got put into prison prematurely, they should be coming together and hitting their peak towards the end of the year. FSU is 12-3-1 SU in their home finales and they were embarassed badly at the Swamp last year. I think this year could be the year FSU pulls a surprise and ends the Florida domination. My prediction: FSU wins 32-28.

 

[SoonerBS]

Wake Forest

This could be the year that Wake Forest relies most on its defense to win them games. They return 9 off the 28th ranked defense in the nation last year. I think it is likely they could be even better this year. This is good because they only return 5 on defense. The skill players at RB and QB are there, but the WR corps will need to gain some experience. My biggest question is their offensive line. They will start 4 new linemen (I count TEs with the linemen as they will spend most their time blocking). If the new line gels quickly, WF could actuall be a game or two better than last season as they have only 5 road games. Time will tell.

-- Wake Forest vs. Clemson October 9th -- Again, I think I will make more money playing on the home team on Thursday nights whenever ESPN is broadcasting the game. The trend is too strong. Clemson is clearly the more talented team, but Wake Forest at home on Thursday night will be hard to beat. Even better, WF is likely to be a home dog. My prediction: Wake Forest wins 21-17.

-- Wake Forest vs. Virginia November 8th -- Wake Forest has lost the last 3 games against Virginia. Virginia will be a very good team to fade this year and this will be WF's homecoming game. It's also sandwiched between a couple of softballs -- Duke and NC State. My prediction: Wake Forest wins 41-14.

-- Wake Forest vs. Vanderbilt November 29th -- This will be the home finale for a "senior-laden" team. Vandy is back to being the bottom of the SEC this season and Wake Forest ought to be able to name their score in this game. My prediction: Wake Forest wins 44-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Maryland

I expected Maryland to be an improved team last year but injuries kept them from being as successful as what they could have been. Still, Friedgen found a way to get his team to win games they probably shouldn't have with the personnel they had to play with. If the injury bug doesn't bite this team this year, I think they will end up 2nd or 3rd in the Atlantic side of the conference. They return 8 on offense and almost their entire offensive line. The RB is being replaced but that is fairly easy to do with an experienced offensive line blocking for you. I expect the offense to be solid. The question for this team is how well the patchwork defense will perform. They have to replace players on the line, LBs and DBs. The good news is they return 46 lettermen from last year's injury riddled team and I like the experience coming back whether they are starters or not. This team is a play-on team this season!

-- Maryland vs. California August 30th -- This is the first meeting between these two teams. What makes this a play-on game is the fact that it is only the third game of the season and California is breaking in 7 new offensive starters. It's not the first road game of California's season, but it is certainly the toughest road game of their early season. Hard to know what the line will be but I'm guessing it to be less than a TD with Maryland the favorite. Maryland is 21-2 at home vs. non-conference - that's big! My prediction: Maryland wins 28-21.

-- Maryland vs. Wake Forest October 18th -- Great spot for Maryland, horrible spot for Wake Forest. Maryland has a bye-week preceding this game with NC State at home following. Wake Forest has this road game sandwiched between Clemson and Miami! My prediction: Maryland wins 28-17.

-- Maryland vs. Florida State November 22nd -- This is not only Maryland's season ending finale, but they will likely catch Florida state looking ahead to Florida the next week. My prediction: Maryland wins 31-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Boston College


I am of the camp that Matt Ryan was everything to this team. I know this is a team sport and that all the other guys contributed, but you take Matt Ryan off last year's team and that team would have likely gone 7-6 or even 6-7. I know a bunch of Boston fans would probably disagree with me, but I'd expect that. This season will be a rebuilding season. Every corps is hit with lost starters and inexperienced players. They return only 6 on offense and a dismal 4 on defense. They should be a fade to begin the season and may become playable towards the end whenever these new guys get some experience under their belts.

-- Boston College vs. Maryland November 29th -- Surprisingly enough there are still several seniors playing and starting on this team this year. This will be their last time to play in front of the home crowd and this game is where they should be at their best playability all season. If things go the way I predict, Maryland should have a bowl game tied up by this game and could be coming off an emotional win against Florida State the week before. My prediction: Boston College wins 35-21.

 

[SoonerBS]

North Carolina State

This team returns only 10 starters and they lose 25 of their 53 lettermen. How the hell can Steele say they are an improved team? They won 5 games last year which is probably 2 more than they are likely to win this season. I know they have some decent talent filling in the gaps, but they are unproven and inexperienced. NC State is still 2 years away from seeing another Bowl game in my opinion.

-- NC State vs. Boston College October 4th -- We have to list this game for the simple fact that it will be the first road game for BC's new QB of the season. Plus, NC State will have 5 games under their belts by this time and may have a decent chance of winning their 2nd game of the season (William & Mary being their first). My prediction: NC State wins 24-14.

-- NC State vs. Florida State October 16th -- Another Thursday night ESPN game where NC State will be the home team and likely the "home doggie." My prediction: Florida State wins 28-21.

 

[SoonerBS]

Coastal Division

Virginia Tech

Listen to me on this: VT loses it's top rusher, top 4 receivers, top 3 tacklers and has just 10 starters returning. Add to this the fact that they benifited last season from a +11 turnover margin and we HAVE to admit that they are likely to slip back a notch. I do not buy into such asinine statements as Steele made in his mag, "Beamer always fields a quality group and VT must once again be considered a National Title contender." That's just ridiculus. Who does Phil Steele need to keep happy in Blacksburg, Virginia? Personally, I don't see them even ending up in the top 20 this season. It's a definite rebuilding year. With that said though, a team that is rebuilding is usually better towards the end of the season than they are at the beginning. So . . . .

-- Virginia Tech vs. Maryland November 6th -- Again, this is just my own personal "rule of thumb" - play on the home teams in ESPN Thursday night games. This will be the 4th to the last game of the season and all the newcomers to VT should be starting to click in their roles. My prediction: Virginia Tech wins 34-24.

-- Virginia Tech vs. Duke November 22nd -- Again, this follows my theory on VT that they will finish very strong this season and they have two creampuffs to finish the season - Duke and Virginia. My prediction: Virginia Tech wins 42-17.

-- Virginia Tech vs. Virginia Novemeber 29th -- I know this is a rivalry game, but Virginia has had some losses from last year and over the offseason that will take more than a season to recover from. VT should dominate this game at home. My prediction: Virginia Tech wins 35-3.

 

[SoonerBS]

North Carolina

Just like I have trouble getting a read on Iowa State in the Big 12, it's hard to get a read on this North Carolina team as well. My capping skills tell me that this team went 4-8 last season and returns 18 starters and 44 lettermen. They should be vastly improved! I have always liked Butch Davis and he's into his second year as head coach here. There is some solid talent on this team and a lot of them got their feet wet last season and now have a year of experience. I will be watching the lines on this team closely each week of the season.

-- North Carolina vs. Virginia Tech September 20th -- This game is sandwiched between a couple of good road games with Wake Forest the week before (on a Thursday night) and Miami following. I think the ten days they will have for preparation of this game, and the significance of playing their first Coastal Division game, will grab their attention and keep them focused. This is too early in the season for VT to be ready to handle North Carolina with all the new players they will be playing. North Carolina catches Virginia tech on a good spot. My prediction: North Carolina wins 31-21.

-- North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech November 8th -- NC will be introduced to GT's new triple-option offense in this game. This is not only the homecoming game for NC, but they get a bye-week the week before to prepare. GT will still be working out the kinks of a new system. My prediction: North Carolina wins 35-10.

 

[SoonerBS]

Miami

My how Miami has fallen over the last several years. Last year Randy Shannon inherited the team in it's downward spiral and went 5-7 on the year. Shannon is keeping stricter discipline with this team which is very much needed, but i think he is still two to three years away from gaining teams' respect again. The Hurricanes only return 11 starters off last year's team. They do return 48 lettermen however and as always they do not lack in talent. Still, with a new QB, new receiving corps and a new offensive line, it is going to be mid to late season before we can find some games to play on here.

-- Miami vs. UCF October 11th. -- Miami will have 5 games under there belts and these new players should start getting the hang of the game. UCF is in much the same boat as Miami offensively with only 5 returning starters themselves and I think they may be looking for their offensive identity all season. Road games will not be friendly to UCF this season. My prediction: Miami wins 34-17.

-- Miami vs. Virginia Tech November 13th -- Like I mentioned with V tech earlier, they are in a rebuilding year this season, too. VT should be playing better by this time, but so should Miami. I'll play the home team on a Thursday night ESPN game once again. My prediction: Miami wins 24-17.

 

[SoonerBS]

Georgia Tech

This team has made it to bowl games the last 5 years at least (could be more.) That will end this season as the Georgia tech program will go through some major changes in all categories. First off, Gailey was let go and Paul Johnson, former navy head coach, was hired. Now, I live Paul Johnson and have followed the Navy success for several years. But, the triple-option offense is very intricate and takes a while for players to learn. Also, you need to have and recruit players into this system. That alone is going to take 2 or 3 years to implement and see positive results. Secondly, not only did G Tech lose some players to graduation, but they had some players defect the program and transfer whenever Johnson was hired. I don't think it had anything to do with personality conflicts as much as it had to do with the fact that they were not recruited to run the triple-option and did not want to be part of this scheme. That left a loss of some talent and 13 holes to fill on offense and defense. The good news is that they have 50 lettermen returning, but again, the new changes kind of cancel this benefit out. Georgia Tech is a definite fade team this season.

-- Georgia Tech vs. Miami November 20th -- By virtue of the "home team on Thursday night ESPN games" rule alone. My prediction: Georgia Tech loses 21-17. (They will likely be as much as a TD underdog.)

 

[SoonerBS]

Duke

David Cutcliffe is a 1st year coach for a team that went 1-11 last year. How would you like to take over this program? This team has been so poor that even a Judge ruled that they stink in a recent court case. However, with a 6-6 ATS last year, they showed that they can be profitable to play-on if you pick your spots. Last season it was being an away dog as they went 5-2 ATS in this category. There will likely be some more line opportunities like last year, but this year, with 17 returning starters and a new coach, I'm picking the games to play where they have a chance to win SU.

-- Duke vs. Navy September 13th -- Duke has lost 4 straight to Navy and is 12-20 in this series. That doesn't bode well for a straight up win. But, Navy's former head coach, Johnson, is gone. He was the innovator and mastermind of the triple-option offense for Navy. He was also a genius game coach. With only 5 returning starters for Navy and a new head coach, I am playing against them early and against more experienced teams. Duke fits the bill and plays this one at home. They could possibly be 2-0 going into this game and playing with some confidence. My prediction: Duke wins 38-24.

-- Duke vs. Virginia September 27th -- Again, the same formula as the Navy play - an experienced team playing early season against an inexperienced team that will be down in talent this season. Duke has a bye-week prior to playing Virginia at home. Virginia is in a world of hurt this season losing many key players on the team and coming off a successful season in which "fortunate" describes their wins. My prediction: Duke wins 31-14.

-- Duke at Georgia Tech October 4th -- I'm not playing many of these games on the road, but I think this game is warranted. Duke has had a lot of experience playing against Johnson's triple-option offense. Even though Johnson has left Navy, new Navy head coach, Ken Niumatalolo plans to continue running the triple-option offense he has learned coaching under Johnson. That means that not only does Duke have experience playing this offense from years past, but they will have seen and played against this same style offense only two weeks prior to this game. Again, GT is way down this year and will struggle early in the season and probably all year long. My prediction: Duke wins 21-14.

 

[SoonerBS]

Virginia

I will not be playing on Virginia this season no matter what the line is. I will however, be fading them many times. Last season Virginia was lucky. I know that explanation sounds immature, but how else do you describe a team that won 5 games by 2 points or less in one season. They are the first NCAA team to have done that ever. A big part of that "luck" was the defense of Virginia led by Long and Fitzgerald. These two are gone this year and the defense only returns 5 starters off last year's 9-4 team. On the offensive side of the ball, they return only 6 starters. The most significant loss was the one they never planned for -- the QB, Jameel Sewell. Sewell will miss this season due to academic problems. So, with a new QB and 4 new offensive linemen, Virginia will try to win games with a defense full of holes. I thought last year was going to be a year to fade Virginia but was balked due to their luck. I'm definitely sure this year is the year to fade them and I don't think luck has a chance to save them this season.

 

[SoonerBS]

Bumping for guys that are starting to wake up and realize that football season is nearly here and they haven't capped a lick yet . . . . .

 

[GoSooners]

BS....I usually have a 2 TD cutoff when playing road favorites. But if that USC-Virginia line stays at -17 I might have to make an exception.:toast: