ACC Bowlin'

[jimmyshivers]

30-20-1 +27.9 units

We have a whopping 10 teams in action from the ACC in the bowl season this year, so there is alot of money to be made in the bowl season.

To me the bowl games are capped a little differently. There is alot more time to prepare for the game so coaching matters a good deal more to me. I also have to look at a teams relative motivation; are they happy with their bowl game or their season in general?

Plays will be posted as I make them...

*** Rutgers/NC State Over 52 points

This is one of the better match-ups of the ACC bowl slate as we have two teams who have ended their seasons very hot. I believe this game is a case where both Offenses are much stronger than their own defenses and I see these teams in a shoot-out.

Both teams have excelled with a balanced offense on their winning streaks and the defenses have survived by forcing turnovers. I expect that NC State is going to have a very hard time containing Mike Teal and their passing attack. NCS also has a very capable passing attack and the rutgers defense also struggles against the pass (last 3 games for each team state and rutgers allowing 61 and 67 completion % and 17 FD's a game). I feel like both offenses are capable enough to avoid turnovers and keep the ball moving. State has played better defensively but they have not seen an offense as strong as this one all season.

I'm not expecting either team to have difficulty staying motivated for this game. We have two quality coaches who have their teams playing their best ball this year and I think they both want to end the year on that long winning streak. I feel like this game will probably be played in the 60's.

No inkling on a side in this one yet, lean to rutgers but it is hard to go against Tom O'Brien's excellent bowl record; still looking @ it.

More plays as they come...

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL jimmy...

 

[TheNoob]

This could go over in the third QT. Great call Jimmy

 

[SoonerBS]

30-20-1 +27.9 units

We have a whopping 10 teams in action from the ACC in the bowl season this year, so there is alot of money to be made in the bowl season.

To me the bowl games are capped a little differently. There is alot more time to prepare for the game so coaching matters a good deal more to me. I also have to look at a teams relative motivation; are they happy with their bowl game or their season in general?

Plays will be posted as I make them...

*** Rutgers/NC State Over 52 points

This is one of the better match-ups of the ACC bowl slate as we have two teams who have ended their seasons very hot. I believe this game is a case where both Offenses are much stronger than their own defenses and I see these teams in a shoot-out.

Both teams have excelled with a balanced offense on their winning streaks and the defenses have survived by forcing turnovers. I expect that NC State is going to have a very hard time containing Mike Teal and their passing attack. NCS also has a very capable passing attack and the rutgers defense also struggles against the pass (last 3 games for each team state and rutgers allowing 61 and 67 completion % and 17 FD's a game). I feel like both offenses are capable enough to avoid turnovers and keep the ball moving. State has played better defensively but they have not seen an offense as strong as this one all season.

I'm not expecting either team to have difficulty staying motivated for this game. We have two quality coaches who have their teams playing their best ball this year and I think they both want to end the year on that long winning streak. I feel like this game will probably be played in the 60's.

No inkling on a side in this one yet, lean to rutgers but it is hard to go against Tom O'Brien's excellent bowl record; still looking @ it.

More plays as they come...

Good point, dude, and well thought out . . . . I like it.

 

[GoSooners]

This may be one of the few bowl games where I don't play a side. The Over looks like the only way to play this game with these two hot offenses. I just hope the layoff doesn't hurt their rhythm and they stay hot....GL Jimmy:toast:

 

[VoiceofReason101]

Its sick how much we think alike. Haven't found one respectful handicapper with a strong opinion on the side. My take on this game since its been announced has been what a waste of a bowl. These two would have matched up nicely against many a teams and my wallet feels light because of it. Great game without question so I guess I'll be drinking my homemade ale while cheering you all with your overs (I don't have the loins to bet totals). GL my friend.



Funny isn't it Jimmy how in the beginning of the season all the talking heads were bad mouthing are conference and now some of those same "respected analysts" have us ranked 2nd top to bottom (ahead of the infamous SEC).

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

I too like the total.

Leaning NCST on the side. I've been very impressed with Russell Wilson lately, and don't really see Rutgers slowing him down much. I know it's not smart at all to do A > B > C therefore A > C comparisons, but NCST > UNC > Rutgers...

 

[jimmyshivers]

I too like the total.

Leaning NCST on the side. I've been very impressed with Russell Wilson lately, and don't really see Rutgers slowing him down much. I know it's not smart at all to do A > B > C therefore A > C comparisons, but NCST > UNC > Rutgers...

U said it yourself, but that can be a very dangerous comparison. The rutgers UNC blew out barely resembles this current team's form and Carolina has lost alot of that explosivness (at the time they had a healthy Yates and their playmaker Tate).

Thanks for the thoughts everyone, I think we have the right side on this game. :toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

Its sick how much we think alike. Haven't found one respectful handicapper with a strong opinion on the side. My take on this game since its been announced has been what a waste of a bowl. These two would have matched up nicely against many a teams and my wallet feels light because of it. Great game without question so I guess I'll be drinking my homemade ale while cheering you all with your overs (I don't have the loins to bet totals). GL my friend.



Funny isn't it Jimmy how in the beginning of the season all the talking heads were bad mouthing are conference and now some of those same "respected analysts" have us ranked 2nd top to bottom (ahead of the infamous SEC).

Yeah it's amazing how the analysts seem to play chicken little every week and overreact to every little bump in the road. We all know their opinion doesnt account for shit but if they would keep hating on some of the more solid conferences like the ACC we would get better line value with some of our more solid teams. I just get a kick at the free pass some of these top heavy conferences get with respect to their middle tier teams. It does give us some good moneymaking opportunities. Enjoy the homemade brew my man :drink:

 

[TOOTIGHT]

Over 52
1st play of the bowl season Jimmy, I hope it works out for us :toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Nevada Wolf Pack -1


This is a Maryland team that has been an abysmal 1-4 on the road traveling to a bowl game that they didn't want to go to in a city that doesn't want them to be there. Nevada will act as the home team here and should have a decided advantage in the stands. On the field I like the Nevada run defense in this game. Maryland has balanced play calling but they rely on the run to set up the pass. Their struggles over the past few games can be traced to the running games failure to establish itself (2.7 ypc on 40 carries a game over that span). In the same time frame Nevada has been very stout against the run, allowing only 2.9 ypc against WAC foes. Their passing defense is fairly competent against the short passing attack that maryland brings; they only allow 55 percent of passes to be completed.

On offense I like the balance that the Nevada playcalling brings to this game. Maryland has been somewhat of a bend but dont break this season; allowing nearly 20 FDs a game, 4 ypc and 62 percent completion percentage while only giving up only 21 points a game. I think Nevada is going to impose their style of play on this game and force Maryland to be efficient with their offense, and this Terp team has not shown the ability to keep up with high scoring teams in the past month.

When watching the FSU game it felt like Friegden lost this particular Maryland team. They were listless in the Boston College game and there is next to zero excitement for this particular bowl game from the fanbase. I feel like when a team has quit it is evident in the offensive and defensive fronts; this is where you see what kind of juice a team has left. Terrapins are allow 4 sacks a game over the last 3 games and averaging under 14 points in that span. I look for the Wolf Pack to be able to load the box against this Terp offense and live in the back field all day.

I just don't think Maryland wants to be here. Nevada likes to run the ball and hit you in the mouth, and I don't see Maryland wanting to put up with that for 4 quaters. Maryland might start out competitive in this game but I don't think this team has the right mental make up to fight this one out in the trenches. Pack by 10.

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

Good write-up jimmy...will keep me from playing on Maryland in this game. I think Maryland is better-coached and more talented, but the motivation angle is definitely something to keep in mind.

Can't bring myself to play on Nevada though; still feeling the sting after watching that Pop Warner offense get shutdown by freaking New Mexico last year. This might be one of the least enticing bowl games of them all...

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

agree with you on Nevada as well...

 

[ar182]

** Nevada Wolf Pack -1


This is a Maryland team that has been an abysmal 1-4 on the road traveling to a bowl game that they didn't want to go to in a city that doesn't want them to be there. Nevada will act as the home team here and should have a decided advantage in the stands. On the field I like the Nevada run defense in this game. Maryland has balanced play calling but they rely on the run to set up the pass. Their struggles over the past few games can be traced to the running games failure to establish itself (2.7 ypc on 40 carries a game over that span). In the same time frame Nevada has been very stout against the run, allowing only 2.9 ypc against WAC foes. Their passing defense is fairly competent against the short passing attack that maryland brings; they only allow 55 percent of passes to be completed.

On offense I like the balance that the Nevada playcalling brings to this game. Maryland has been somewhat of a bend but dont break this season; allowing nearly 20 FDs a game, 4 ypc and 62 percent completion percentage while only giving up only 21 points a game. I think Nevada is going to impose their style of play on this game and force Maryland to be efficient with their offense, and this Terp team has not shown the ability to keep up with high scoring teams in the past month.

When watching the FSU game it felt like Friegden lost this particular Maryland team. They were listless in the Boston College game and there is next to zero excitement for this particular bowl game from the fanbase. I feel like when a team has quit it is evident in the offensive and defensive fronts; this is where you see what kind of juice a team has left. Terrapins are allow 4 sacks a game over the last 3 games and averaging under 14 points in that span. I look for the Wolf Pack to be able to load the box against this Terp offense and live in the back field all day.

I just don't think Maryland wants to be here. Nevada likes to run the ball and hit you in the mouth, and I don't see Maryland wanting to put up with that for 4 quaters. Maryland might start out competitive in this game but I don't think this team has the right mental make up to fight this one out in the trenches. Pack by 10.

jimmy.....

do you any opinion on the total in this game ?

thanks...good luck

 

[fivestarjake]

i really like the wolfpack here also. should be a solid play. great writeup.

 

[jimmyshivers]

jimmy.....

do you any opinion on the total in this game ?

thanks...good luck

Total looks high to me, I feel like if you take that over you are going to be asking Nevada to carry the brunt of the load. I feel like Nevada will be heavy on the run and should be able to keep the clock running. I have a slight lean to the under but not enough to make it a play. BOL to you on whatever you choose to do.

 

[jimmyshivers]

i really like the wolfpack here also. should be a solid play. great writeup.

:toast: really think we have the right side here.

 

[jimmyshivers]

* Wake Forest Deamon Deacons -3


I'm going to go throw out the first meeting between these teams as I think it would be foolish to take very much stock in a game where 1 team had 6 turnovers. I will say that if a team can turn the ball over that many times and still have a shot to tie the game late in the 4th quarter then it would seem to bode well for them in a rematch. A rematch also definately favors the team going against a gimmicky offense as they have already been exposed to what the other team likes to do.

To have a chance to win this game Wake Forest is going to have to make a big statement in stopping the run. Navy is all about the running attack (in the previous meeting they threw the ball 4 times!) and is perfectly content to play possession ball control. I feel like stopping the running game is a product of defensive energy, to stop the option requires intensity and patience, and a poorly organized or motivated unit is going to have a hard time with this. I really like the coaching match-up for the Deacs in this game as Grobe's teams have performed very well when he has an abundance of practice time before a game. The Wake run D has improved towards the end of the season, giving up only 3.1 ypc over the last 3 games.

Offensively the Deacs are pretty balanced but have had some struggles putting points on the board. Navy is decent against the run (3.6 ypc) but very vulnerable against teams that like to throw the football, allowing for 65 % completions and 12 yards a catch. I think the Deacs will make it a point to exploit their advantage in the passing game and to end a shakey Junior season for QB Skinner on a good note.

I feel like this game will probably be ugly but I really like the matchup of the Wake defense versus the Navy option attack in this game; their experience @ linebacker should make a large difference. The Wake offense has struggled this season mightily but I think we will see a highly motivated Riley Skinner (had 5 TO's in first game). To me Wake is the right side because they have more talent on both sides of the ball, an edge in the coaching match-up, and the revenge angle. Looking hard @ the under in this one and may have a play on it over the next few days.

Have been very sporadic in making my plays, but my schedule is opening up some and I look to make most of them in the next few days. BOL everyone...

 

[GoSooners]

Jimmy....I agree with the Wake pick. Although I think we both might have a few fingernails chewed off by the end of this game. BOL:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

*** California Golden Bears -7

Reading this site, I have seen some very good points made regarding this game in a few threads and I agree with alot of those points.

To me it looks like Randy Shannon has lost this Hurricane team after the demolition @ Georgia Tech. When a team (with a top 25 run D before the game to boot) gets run on like that in a game, it very simply says that they quit in that game. They were very flat against NC State after that game and allowed an average NCSU ground game to churn out 220 yards. Simply put, Randy Shannon is not a good enough coach to get this team back.

On the field we have a very good situation in that California excels at running the ball. The Golden Bears have averaged a healthy 5.5 ypc this season going against this Miami D that has given up 250 rushing ypg over the last 3 games. Cal's playcalling is very balanced and even though they have had some serious QB issues this season they have enough @ QB to keep the Hurricane D honest. If their smart they will focus on the run first and use that to set up attempts to throw the ball downfield. On Offense Miami has had some success running the ball, but I feel like Cal is up to the challenge of stopping them (3.3 ypc and 51 % completion percentage).

To me it looks like we have a dominant home team (7-0 ats @ home this year) playing defacto home game against a team in disarray and who appears to be rallying against their coach. The coaching mismatch is huge in this game and these appear to be teams heading in opposite directions. Based on the vibe coming from both of these teams it feels like Miami doesnt want to be here, and when you are ready for the season to be over it can be hard to stop a dominant running team. I feel that we see a redux of the Georgia Tech game in that Miami gets hit in the mouth and lays down instead of fighting back. I think the 'Canes get exposed in this one. Bears by 20.

Sorry for ramblin a little bit, drinking a little wine while I watch my Eagles tonite...